0:00:03 > 0:00:04Good evening. In this forecast,
0:00:04 > 0:00:06I'll look forward into the beginning of October.
0:00:06 > 0:00:08But it's interesting to look back at September
0:00:08 > 0:00:13as well which for many of us will be remembered as being extremely dry.
0:00:13 > 0:00:16That's because the jetstream that drives our weather systems
0:00:16 > 0:00:18across the Atlantic has been driving them to the North
0:00:18 > 0:00:21and West of the UK for much of the month.
0:00:21 > 0:00:24So high pressure has been influencing proceedings further South
0:00:24 > 0:00:26and any weather fronts have generally been weak.
0:00:26 > 0:00:29The rain we have seen has mostly come from thundery showers
0:00:29 > 0:00:32because we've had lots of warm air pumping Northwards at times.
0:00:32 > 0:00:36We could see some more thundery showers before the end of play
0:00:36 > 0:00:39with September. But it's not likely this weekend.
0:00:39 > 0:00:43Instead, it looks dry with warm sunshine but with a risk of fog.
0:00:43 > 0:00:48Also there could well be some frost around first thing Saturday morning.
0:00:48 > 0:00:50In fact Saturday and Sunday.
0:00:50 > 0:00:53More likely out in rural areas, like Leek, Bala,
0:00:53 > 0:00:57temperatures dipping close to freezing under clearing skies.
0:00:57 > 0:00:59But the big concern for the South
0:00:59 > 0:01:01is for dense fog
0:01:01 > 0:01:02and the fact that it's patchy
0:01:02 > 0:01:04makes it more dangerous
0:01:04 > 0:01:06because you run into it one moment
0:01:06 > 0:01:07and then it will be clear the next.
0:01:07 > 0:01:09There's a bit of cloud around
0:01:09 > 0:01:11from time to time, light showers
0:01:11 > 0:01:13and later more cloud for the North and West.
0:01:13 > 0:01:15But not as windy as it's been today,
0:01:15 > 0:01:17so it won't feel as chilly.
0:01:17 > 0:01:20Again, there's still some energy in the sunshine,
0:01:20 > 0:01:2320 to 21 degrees. Unfortunately not enough
0:01:23 > 0:01:25to clear the fog quickly in the morning.
0:01:25 > 0:01:28Our weather fronts approach further during Sunday,
0:01:28 > 0:01:30so we'll see something more potent
0:01:30 > 0:01:32across parts of the Highlands of Scotland.
0:01:32 > 0:01:34Perhaps brushing into Northern Ireland,
0:01:34 > 0:01:35North-West England,
0:01:35 > 0:01:38so some drizzly showers in Western areas.
0:01:38 > 0:01:40But again, for many, it's dry,
0:01:40 > 0:01:42increasingly bright,
0:01:42 > 0:01:44the fog could be quite stubborn
0:01:44 > 0:01:46and disruptive in Southern and Eastern areas,
0:01:46 > 0:01:48perhaps some of the airports.
0:01:48 > 0:01:51But once it does clear, 19 to 22 in the sunshine,
0:01:51 > 0:01:53it brightens up too behind that the weather front
0:01:53 > 0:01:55in the North of Scotland.
0:01:55 > 0:01:57By Monday, we change the wind direction a little,
0:01:57 > 0:01:59and pull in Southerly winds again,
0:01:59 > 0:02:02so pulling up warmer air I talked about earlier,
0:02:02 > 0:02:04which could introduce showers,
0:02:04 > 0:02:06potentially thundery showers
0:02:06 > 0:02:09because the air is so warm and has a lot of energy.
0:02:09 > 0:02:12They'll be coming across Iberia, through France,
0:02:12 > 0:02:13the Low Countries towards our shores,
0:02:13 > 0:02:15keeping these weather fronts at bay
0:02:15 > 0:02:17but eventually they will win through
0:02:17 > 0:02:20and push that warmer air out of the way.
0:02:20 > 0:02:22By Tuesday, still looking as if
0:02:22 > 0:02:24the risk of those showers or thunderstorms
0:02:24 > 0:02:27in Central and Eastern areas giving us some rain here,
0:02:27 > 0:02:29but not for all.
0:02:29 > 0:02:31Then that weather system makes its way
0:02:31 > 0:02:34into the North and West through Tuesday and Wednesday
0:02:34 > 0:02:36pushing the warmer air out of the way.
0:02:36 > 0:02:39In the mornings, with lightish winds,
0:02:39 > 0:02:42we'll be plagued potentially by fog as well.
0:02:42 > 0:02:45Then, from Wednesday on, it looks set to turn more settled.
0:02:45 > 0:02:49For the beginning of the period, relatively settled,
0:02:49 > 0:02:51then we've got some disagreement in the computer models
0:02:51 > 0:02:54as to how much we'll get in Southern and Eastern areas,
0:02:54 > 0:02:56but then they look as if they agree
0:02:56 > 0:02:59towards the end of next week to settle things down again.
0:02:59 > 0:03:01So early October looks set to revert back
0:03:01 > 0:03:03to what we've seen for much of September,
0:03:03 > 0:03:06with high pressure dominating Southern areas,
0:03:06 > 0:03:07low pressure in the North
0:03:07 > 0:03:11and any weather fronts that do come South will tend to weaken
0:03:11 > 0:03:13and not give as much rain across Southern areas
0:03:13 > 0:03:15because of that close-by high pressure.
0:03:15 > 0:03:18So we'll still have some fog at this time of year,
0:03:18 > 0:03:19perhaps some grass frost,
0:03:19 > 0:03:22but by day warm because it will be relatively settled.
0:03:22 > 0:03:25It's just cloud amounts that we'll be checking out.
0:03:25 > 0:03:28So it looks as if we will see some rain before the end of September,
0:03:28 > 0:03:31but October starts relatively dry.