0:00:03 > 0:00:05Hello. As September draws to a close,
0:00:05 > 0:00:08it's no surprise to hear it's been a predominantly dry month.
0:00:08 > 0:00:11But let's take a look at the story so far.
0:00:11 > 0:00:13Most of the rainfall we have seen
0:00:13 > 0:00:15has been in the far North-West,
0:00:15 > 0:00:16but we've hardly seen
0:00:16 > 0:00:18any at all in Northern Ireland.
0:00:18 > 0:00:21And these totals are way down, percentage-wise,
0:00:21 > 0:00:23on what we should have for September.
0:00:23 > 0:00:25One of the reasons for this
0:00:25 > 0:00:27is probably the position of the jet stream
0:00:27 > 0:00:30which has been centred to the far North of the UK.
0:00:30 > 0:00:32This ribbon of fast-moving winds
0:00:32 > 0:00:35high up in the atmosphere has been deflecting
0:00:35 > 0:00:37frontal systems to the North of the UK
0:00:37 > 0:00:40and at the same time it's been driving in
0:00:40 > 0:00:42slightly milder air from the near Continent,
0:00:42 > 0:00:45so temperatures have been quite favourable as well
0:00:45 > 0:00:46for the month of September.
0:00:46 > 0:00:48It looks like this weather pattern
0:00:48 > 0:00:49is set to continue
0:00:49 > 0:00:51for the final few days of the month
0:00:51 > 0:00:54with weather fronts pushing into the far North-West,
0:00:54 > 0:00:56bringing in some nuisance rain.
0:00:56 > 0:00:59Elsewhere, it's a largely quiet scenario for Sunday.
0:00:59 > 0:01:01Any early-morning fog will lift away,
0:01:01 > 0:01:03we'll see dry, sunny spells coming through
0:01:03 > 0:01:05and it will feel pleasantly warm
0:01:05 > 0:01:07across England and Wales.
0:01:07 > 0:01:09Nuisance rain into the afternoon
0:01:09 > 0:01:10for Northern Ireland
0:01:10 > 0:01:12and the Highlands of Scotland.
0:01:12 > 0:01:14Temperatures here a bit more subdued,
0:01:14 > 0:01:1615 to 19 degrees at the best.
0:01:16 > 0:01:19When we get sunshine coming through,
0:01:19 > 0:01:20we could see potentially
0:01:20 > 0:01:23temperatures of 23 or 24 Celsius.
0:01:23 > 0:01:25As we move towards Monday,
0:01:25 > 0:01:27our weather front in Scotland
0:01:27 > 0:01:29retreats back further North
0:01:29 > 0:01:30and at the same time we pick up
0:01:30 > 0:01:31more of a Southerly breeze.
0:01:31 > 0:01:33There is a potential for some showers
0:01:33 > 0:01:35to drift up from the near Continent.
0:01:35 > 0:01:37Something we need to keep a close eye on
0:01:37 > 0:01:38across England and Wales.
0:01:38 > 0:01:40But we are not concerned too much
0:01:40 > 0:01:42about those showers.
0:01:42 > 0:01:43It looks as though Monday will be
0:01:43 > 0:01:45a predominantly dry day again.
0:01:45 > 0:01:47Early morning fog lifting away,
0:01:47 > 0:01:48sunshine coming through,
0:01:48 > 0:01:49just cloudier skies perhaps
0:01:49 > 0:01:51into the far North and West.
0:01:51 > 0:01:54Similar values in terms of temperatures,
0:01:54 > 0:01:5616 to 22 degrees the overall high.
0:01:56 > 0:01:58As we move towards Tuesday,
0:01:58 > 0:02:01that Southerly component stays with us.
0:02:01 > 0:02:03So again we pick up warmer air
0:02:03 > 0:02:04from the near Continent.
0:02:04 > 0:02:07The best of the sunshine for England and Wales,
0:02:07 > 0:02:09quite breezy out to the North and West
0:02:09 > 0:02:10as another weather front
0:02:10 > 0:02:11starts to knock on the door
0:02:11 > 0:02:14and bring some showery outbreaks of rain
0:02:14 > 0:02:15into Western Scotland.
0:02:15 > 0:02:17That will slowly drift its way South and East
0:02:17 > 0:02:19but weaken substantially.
0:02:19 > 0:02:21By then, just a band of cloud and nuisance rain.
0:02:21 > 0:02:22At the same time,
0:02:22 > 0:02:25another front will push into Scotland.
0:02:25 > 0:02:27So more cloud around through the middle of the week,
0:02:27 > 0:02:29maybe a few showers from that dying weather front
0:02:29 > 0:02:31as it pushes South and East.
0:02:31 > 0:02:33At the same time, we see a bit more rain
0:02:33 > 0:02:36to the far North-West of Scotland as well.
0:02:36 > 0:02:38Winds will remain a feature,
0:02:38 > 0:02:40particularly out to exposed coasts
0:02:40 > 0:02:41of the North-West on Thursday.
0:02:41 > 0:02:43But Thursday looks like again
0:02:43 > 0:02:45a good deal of quiet weather in the forecast,
0:02:45 > 0:02:47a good deal of dry weather.
0:02:47 > 0:02:51Temperatures not bad for the beginning of October.
0:02:51 > 0:02:53As we move towards the end of the week,
0:02:53 > 0:02:55there are signs that weather fronts are starting
0:02:55 > 0:02:57to really just show their hand again
0:02:57 > 0:02:59up into the North-West.
0:02:59 > 0:03:01And the winds will be more of a feature.
0:03:01 > 0:03:03So there is a level of uncertainty
0:03:03 > 0:03:06as we move towards Friday and into the weekend.
0:03:06 > 0:03:08If this frontal system pushes in
0:03:08 > 0:03:10from the North and West,
0:03:10 > 0:03:12it could bring more significant rainfall
0:03:12 > 0:03:13across the country.
0:03:13 > 0:03:16But there is a level of uncertainty to that
0:03:16 > 0:03:18and of course it's a long way off.
0:03:18 > 0:03:21So further ahead it stays wet and windy into the far North-West.
0:03:21 > 0:03:25Dry and bright in the South-East and if you get some sunshine,
0:03:25 > 0:03:30well, for the early half of October, it will continue to feel warm.
0:03:32 > 0:03:33'Two minutes left, bakers!'
0:03:33 > 0:03:35I think I've overdone it with the pistachios
0:03:35 > 0:03:37and somehow, the custard's split, but it's too late!
0:03:37 > 0:03:39Paul told me not to under-bake it.