0:00:02 > 0:00:04Hello. As September 2014 comes to a close,
0:00:04 > 0:00:06it looks like being quite a memorable month.
0:00:06 > 0:00:10Perhaps record-breaking in several areas in terms of rainfall totals.
0:00:10 > 0:00:12It's been a dry and warm month.
0:00:12 > 0:00:15One of the reasons is due to the jet stream,
0:00:15 > 0:00:17this ribbon of fast-moving winds
0:00:17 > 0:00:18high up in the atmosphere
0:00:18 > 0:00:21has been sitting to the North of the UK,
0:00:21 > 0:00:23deflecting the weather fronts to the North of us.
0:00:23 > 0:00:25So we've not seen that much in the way of rain.
0:00:25 > 0:00:2835 millimetres the most rainfall in Scotland.
0:00:28 > 0:00:29But look at Northern Ireland,
0:00:29 > 0:00:31just five millimetres across the month.
0:00:31 > 0:00:34These were figures until the 26th of this month.
0:00:34 > 0:00:36So way down percentage-wise
0:00:36 > 0:00:39on where they should be for the month of September.
0:00:39 > 0:00:40But there are indications
0:00:40 > 0:00:42that the jet stream will start
0:00:42 > 0:00:45to push further South as we move into October.
0:00:45 > 0:00:47And that's going to influence our weather
0:00:47 > 0:00:49as conditions become a bit more unsettled
0:00:49 > 0:00:50and it allows weather fronts
0:00:50 > 0:00:52to move in from the Atlantic.
0:00:52 > 0:00:53There's the first signs of that,
0:00:53 > 0:00:55with this area of low pressure
0:00:55 > 0:00:56waiting out in the wings.
0:00:56 > 0:00:58At the same time, we could drive in
0:00:58 > 0:00:59some moisture through the night
0:00:59 > 0:01:00and that could spark off
0:01:00 > 0:01:02some showers towards the South.
0:01:02 > 0:01:05Some of that will enhance the rainfall total
0:01:05 > 0:01:06before the month is through.
0:01:06 > 0:01:08So we could potentially start off
0:01:08 > 0:01:10with early-morning fog, then as the day continues,
0:01:10 > 0:01:13the fog lifts and some showers drift steadily North and East.
0:01:13 > 0:01:14There is a level of uncertainty
0:01:14 > 0:01:17just where these showers are going to fit
0:01:17 > 0:01:19and how many we are likely to see.
0:01:19 > 0:01:20To the North of that,
0:01:20 > 0:01:21across Scotland and Northern Ireland,
0:01:21 > 0:01:24it's a pleasant day. Dry with sunny spells
0:01:24 > 0:01:27and top temperatures of 16 to 20 Celsius.
0:01:27 > 0:01:30As we move out of Monday towards Tuesday,
0:01:30 > 0:01:31there's our weather front
0:01:31 > 0:01:33pushing in from the Atlantic.
0:01:33 > 0:01:35Again, that could enhance
0:01:35 > 0:01:37the rainfall we see before September closes
0:01:37 > 0:01:38across Northern Ireland
0:01:38 > 0:01:40and also into Western Scotland.
0:01:40 > 0:01:42Ahead of it, it looks quite promising.
0:01:42 > 0:01:44A good deal of dry weather, bright weather,
0:01:44 > 0:01:46some glimpses of sunshine coming through.
0:01:46 > 0:01:48It will feel quite pleasant
0:01:48 > 0:01:50and that weather front weakens substantially
0:01:50 > 0:01:52as it drifts further inland across the country.
0:01:52 > 0:01:54So on Tuesday, top temperatures
0:01:54 > 0:01:5616 to 18 degrees to the North,
0:01:56 > 0:01:58highs of 22, still pretty pleasant
0:01:58 > 0:02:01for the final few days of September.
0:02:01 > 0:02:03As we move towards Wednesday, 1 October,
0:02:03 > 0:02:06drier, brighter weather across the country.
0:02:06 > 0:02:08Our weather front dying in situ.
0:02:08 > 0:02:10Just a band of cloud, a spot or two of rain.
0:02:10 > 0:02:14Behind it, things turn fresher on Wednesday.
0:02:14 > 0:02:17As we move to Wednesday night into Thursday morning,
0:02:17 > 0:02:18high pressure will build
0:02:18 > 0:02:21and things turn on the chilly side first thing
0:02:21 > 0:02:22before a significant area
0:02:22 > 0:02:24of low pressure starts to push in.
0:02:24 > 0:02:27So a coolish start into the North on Thursday,
0:02:27 > 0:02:28a touch of frost,
0:02:28 > 0:02:30but a good deal of dry weather.
0:02:30 > 0:02:31The winds increasing by the end of the day,
0:02:31 > 0:02:34perhaps overnight Thursday into Friday
0:02:34 > 0:02:36we could see gales or severe gales
0:02:36 > 0:02:38and we could see some significant rainfall
0:02:38 > 0:02:40pushing into the North and West.
0:02:40 > 0:02:42So turning increasingly unsettled,
0:02:42 > 0:02:45that wet and windy weather drifts South and East.
0:02:45 > 0:02:47So, still a level of uncertainty
0:02:47 > 0:02:49just how far South and East
0:02:49 > 0:02:51and how much rain we get on that front
0:02:51 > 0:02:53as it pushes further South.
0:02:53 > 0:02:55As that front clears away,
0:02:55 > 0:02:58it allows that high pressure then to build in,
0:02:58 > 0:03:00but I suspect the difference being,
0:03:00 > 0:03:01with the early half of October,
0:03:01 > 0:03:04the high pressure will be sitting a little more
0:03:04 > 0:03:05across the near Continent
0:03:05 > 0:03:07with low pressure to the North and West
0:03:07 > 0:03:09and that could allow weather fronts
0:03:09 > 0:03:11to drift in across the Atlantic.
0:03:11 > 0:03:14So, as we approach the first week of October,
0:03:14 > 0:03:17it looks as though there's likely to be a greater chance of rain.
0:03:17 > 0:03:20The winds will certainly become more of a feature
0:03:20 > 0:03:23and if anything more of an autumnal flavour to the weather forecast.
0:03:23 > 0:03:26That's how it's looking. Don't forget, if you are interested
0:03:26 > 0:03:30in more information, you can find it on our weather website.
0:03:32 > 0:03:33'Two minutes left, bakers!'
0:03:33 > 0:03:35I think I've overdone it with the pistachios
0:03:35 > 0:03:38and somehow, the custard's split, but it's too late!
0:03:38 > 0:03:40Paul told me not to under-bake it.
0:03:40 > 0:03:42He's going to have a field day!
0:03:42 > 0:03:45Ian's representation of the evils
0:03:45 > 0:03:49of statutory press regulation in sponge cake may be a bridge too far.
0:03:49 > 0:03:51What will Paul think of it?