0:00:03 > 0:00:06Hello there. We're just a few days into November,
0:00:06 > 0:00:08but yet again breaking temperature records.
0:00:08 > 0:00:11This time, it was in Eskdalemuir in Dumfries and Galloway,
0:00:11 > 0:00:13with the warmest November temperature recorded,
0:00:13 > 0:00:1616.4 Celsius through Tuesday afternoon.
0:00:16 > 0:00:18Sandwiched either side though, a different story,
0:00:18 > 0:00:19with some stubborn fog
0:00:19 > 0:00:21that sat there all day,
0:00:21 > 0:00:22and temperatures didn't climb
0:00:22 > 0:00:23into double figures.
0:00:23 > 0:00:25For England and Wales fog wasn't too much
0:00:25 > 0:00:26of an issue on Tuesday,
0:00:26 > 0:00:27there was a breeze and more cloud,
0:00:27 > 0:00:29and that brought some
0:00:29 > 0:00:30showery outbreaks of rain.
0:00:30 > 0:00:32That rain is going to be hanging around
0:00:32 > 0:00:33during Wednesday,
0:00:33 > 0:00:35producing a fairly messy picture.
0:00:35 > 0:00:37Light and patchy across Scotland,
0:00:37 > 0:00:38but for England and Wales
0:00:38 > 0:00:40some of those showers could be sharp,
0:00:40 > 0:00:41maybe even with the odd rumble
0:00:41 > 0:00:42of thunder mixed in there as well.
0:00:42 > 0:00:44And there will be some hill fog,
0:00:44 > 0:00:46particularly in the far north of Scotland,
0:00:46 > 0:00:4910 to 15 degrees our overall high,
0:00:49 > 0:00:52so mild again for the time of year.
0:00:52 > 0:00:53As we move out of Wednesday,
0:00:53 > 0:00:55the showers will slowly fade
0:00:55 > 0:00:56and we keep some clearer skies
0:00:56 > 0:00:58and potential for further fog into
0:00:58 > 0:01:01the far north, but the breeze picks up
0:01:01 > 0:01:02and we will start to see some rain
0:01:02 > 0:01:04arriving during Thursday morning.
0:01:04 > 0:01:05That will continue to be
0:01:05 > 0:01:06the story on Thursday,
0:01:06 > 0:01:08some wet and windy weather
0:01:08 > 0:01:09pushing in from the west,
0:01:09 > 0:01:10some of it heavy for a time,
0:01:10 > 0:01:12weakening off as it moves
0:01:12 > 0:01:15further east, highs of 11 to 16 degrees.
0:01:15 > 0:01:17As we move out of Thursday,
0:01:17 > 0:01:19that frontal system clears away,
0:01:19 > 0:01:22but it's only going to be replaced by another.
0:01:22 > 0:01:23However, look at the isobars
0:01:23 > 0:01:25squeezing together a south-westerly breeze,
0:01:25 > 0:01:28so it stays mild, but the winds will strengthen,
0:01:28 > 0:01:29gale-force gusts likely
0:01:29 > 0:01:31into the far north and there could be
0:01:31 > 0:01:33a spell of pretty wet weather
0:01:33 > 0:01:35as we move through to Scotland.
0:01:35 > 0:01:36As we get towards the end
0:01:36 > 0:01:38of this week there is a level
0:01:38 > 0:01:39of uncertainty to the timing
0:01:39 > 0:01:40of the frontal systems,
0:01:40 > 0:01:42but wet weather continues to
0:01:42 > 0:01:43move its way steadily east
0:01:43 > 0:01:46and yet again, it's going to be replaced by another
0:01:46 > 0:01:49area of low pressure as we move into Saturday.
0:01:49 > 0:01:52This one could bring severe gales on exposed coasts,
0:01:52 > 0:01:53there's a level of uncertainty
0:01:53 > 0:01:55as to the timing of this frontal system
0:01:55 > 0:01:58- don't make this forecast the last one you watch
0:01:58 > 0:01:59if you've got outdoor plans on Saturday.
0:01:59 > 0:02:01But there will be some wet
0:02:01 > 0:02:03and windy weather to the north,
0:02:03 > 0:02:05showery further south, but mild,
0:02:05 > 0:02:06look at this, 11 to 17 degrees,
0:02:06 > 0:02:08we should be seeing temperatures
0:02:08 > 0:02:11more like 10 or 11 at this time of year.
0:02:11 > 0:02:13Fingers crossed, Sunday looks a little quieter.
0:02:13 > 0:02:14There will be some outbreaks
0:02:14 > 0:02:16of showery rain into the north-west
0:02:16 > 0:02:19and another system gathering into the south-west.
0:02:19 > 0:02:20Ahead of it, with some
0:02:20 > 0:02:21clearer skies through the night
0:02:21 > 0:02:23in sheltered eastern areas,
0:02:23 > 0:02:24could start off chilly on Sunday,
0:02:24 > 0:02:26but hopefully a little
0:02:26 > 0:02:28quieter, drier and brighter.
0:02:28 > 0:02:29By the end of the day on Sunday
0:02:29 > 0:02:31we'll see more significant rain
0:02:31 > 0:02:32pushing into the south-west,
0:02:32 > 0:02:34gradually moving across the south coast,
0:02:34 > 0:02:36hopefully staying largely dry during daylight hours
0:02:36 > 0:02:38in the south-east corner.
0:02:38 > 0:02:40Again, similar values, 11 to 16 degrees.
0:02:40 > 0:02:42So what is happening with our weather?
0:02:42 > 0:02:44A change. At the beginning of November
0:02:44 > 0:02:45we had high pressure
0:02:45 > 0:02:47dominating across the continent
0:02:47 > 0:02:49and that was splitting the jet stream
0:02:49 > 0:02:52to the north and south, blocking high, really,
0:02:52 > 0:02:54but through the middle of November
0:02:54 > 0:02:55it's all changed,
0:02:55 > 0:02:56the jet stream,
0:02:56 > 0:02:58this ribbon of fast-moving winds
0:02:58 > 0:03:01high up in the atmosphere that drive
0:03:01 > 0:03:02the weather systems towards us,
0:03:02 > 0:03:04is going to be pushing its way towards
0:03:04 > 0:03:06the UK, and that'll move these areas
0:03:06 > 0:03:08of low pressure in from the south-west.
0:03:08 > 0:03:09Which basically means
0:03:09 > 0:03:11things will turn wetter and windier.
0:03:11 > 0:03:13So we lose the quieter theme
0:03:13 > 0:03:16with the light winds and stubborn fog
0:03:16 > 0:03:18that we've seen in recent days,
0:03:18 > 0:03:20and that does mean though, for the middle of November,
0:03:20 > 0:03:21it is all change.
0:03:21 > 0:03:23It looks as though it will stay cloudy,
0:03:23 > 0:03:26wet at times and often very windy.
0:03:26 > 0:03:27But trying to stay on an optimistic note,
0:03:27 > 0:03:30the wind's coming from the south-west, it will stay mild.
0:03:30 > 0:03:31Till then, take care.
0:03:33 > 0:03:34# Can you feel it?
0:03:34 > 0:03:36# Can you feel it?
0:03:36 > 0:03:38# Can you feel it? #
0:03:39 > 0:03:41I'm actually tingling with the excitement.