0:00:03 > 0:00:05Now that Abigail is moving away,
0:00:05 > 0:00:08we're turning our attention to the weekend.
0:00:08 > 0:00:10I will talk about the outlook in just a few minutes.
0:00:10 > 0:00:13But rain is going to be a big feature,
0:00:13 > 0:00:15a disruptive feature, this weekend,
0:00:15 > 0:00:17because our next area of low pressure
0:00:17 > 0:00:20contains the remnants of the tropical air from Hurricane Kate.
0:00:20 > 0:00:22An ex-hurricane now but, nevertheless,
0:00:22 > 0:00:26it's got a lot of warmth and moisture within that cloud system
0:00:26 > 0:00:30which is developing into this really quite elongated area of low pressure
0:00:30 > 0:00:32with a strong south-westerly wind.
0:00:32 > 0:00:34When you've got tropical air,
0:00:34 > 0:00:38it's got a good ability to contain an awful lot of water.
0:00:38 > 0:00:40Rain is the real concern on this system.
0:00:40 > 0:00:43As it comes in, it'll come across the cold air in Scotland,
0:00:43 > 0:00:45giving some snow here over the hills.
0:00:45 > 0:00:47It'll feel pretty chilly on Saturday
0:00:47 > 0:00:49across many central, eastern and northern areas.
0:00:49 > 0:00:52Eventually, we'll see a rise in temperature late in the day
0:00:52 > 0:00:54as that south-westerly takes hold.
0:00:54 > 0:00:55But, really, the temperatures
0:00:55 > 0:00:58obviously making it feel quite miserable out there.
0:00:58 > 0:00:59But the real story is the rain,
0:00:59 > 0:01:02because once it arrives, it's with us through the weekend.
0:01:02 > 0:01:06Uncertainty as to exactly how far north the heaviest rain will be
0:01:06 > 0:01:08or, indeed, how far south.
0:01:08 > 0:01:11But at the moment, it looks to have its sights set
0:01:11 > 0:01:14on parts of north-west England, notably Cumbria,
0:01:14 > 0:01:16across the Pennines as well, and north Wales.
0:01:16 > 0:01:19These are peak values, 150 to 200 millimetres.
0:01:19 > 0:01:21Many areas will get 50 to 100.
0:01:21 > 0:01:23But clearly, that amount of rainfall
0:01:23 > 0:01:25is going to have some far-reaching impacts.
0:01:25 > 0:01:29Clearly, there'll be some flooding, quite significant flooding,
0:01:29 > 0:01:31and also disruption to transport.
0:01:31 > 0:01:34So, please do stay tuned to the forecast this weekend
0:01:34 > 0:01:35if you live in those areas,
0:01:35 > 0:01:37because as you can see, on Sunday as well,
0:01:37 > 0:01:40it's still raining and blowing a gale.
0:01:40 > 0:01:42That gale, or strong to gale-force wind,
0:01:42 > 0:01:44blowing in yet more moist air
0:01:44 > 0:01:46over the mountains of north Wales, Cumbria.
0:01:46 > 0:01:48We mustn't forget that Northern Ireland,
0:01:48 > 0:01:50parts of south-west Scotland, could be in the firing line
0:01:50 > 0:01:53for some very wet weather, which could have flooding,
0:01:53 > 0:01:55significant flooding, impacts as well,
0:01:55 > 0:01:57hence the advice to stay tuned to the forecast.
0:01:57 > 0:01:59That does eventually clear out of the way,
0:01:59 > 0:02:01that low pressure whips itself up Sunday evening,
0:02:01 > 0:02:03some severe gales in the north and then it clears away,
0:02:03 > 0:02:06before we're looking out into the Atlantic for the next one.
0:02:06 > 0:02:09Some rather wet and windy weather to start the day on Monday,
0:02:09 > 0:02:13severe gales in the north, and later in the day, yet more rain,
0:02:13 > 0:02:15back into the same sort of areas,
0:02:15 > 0:02:17Northern Ireland, crossing the Irish Sea into north Wales,
0:02:17 > 0:02:19into north-west England.
0:02:19 > 0:02:21Temporarily, it'll feel a bit chilly again on Monday.
0:02:21 > 0:02:24It's worth noting that through Saturday night and Sunday,
0:02:24 > 0:02:26it will be very mild for the time of year.
0:02:26 > 0:02:28But, as I say, that area of low pressure's moving out of the way
0:02:28 > 0:02:31and we're seeing the next one coming in for Tuesday.
0:02:31 > 0:02:35Tuesday looks as if it could once again be a very wet day,
0:02:35 > 0:02:39and for areas where we'll have seen a lot of wet weather this weekend.
0:02:39 > 0:02:42The concern this weekend is river levels are already high,
0:02:42 > 0:02:44the ground's already saturated,
0:02:44 > 0:02:46and we're coming up against the same problems on Tuesday.
0:02:46 > 0:02:49Wednesday sees a ridge of high pressure for once,
0:02:49 > 0:02:51so some drier, clearer weather for a time.
0:02:51 > 0:02:53But, again, it doesn't last.
0:02:53 > 0:02:54We've got the next band of rain,
0:02:54 > 0:02:57this time pushing, we think, towards the north and the west.
0:02:57 > 0:03:00That's because we're seeing more of a buckle, potentially,
0:03:00 > 0:03:01in the jet stream.
0:03:01 > 0:03:03After that one moves through on Thursday,
0:03:03 > 0:03:05we start to see this buckle in the jet stream.
0:03:05 > 0:03:07As it moves southwards, it allows us
0:03:07 > 0:03:09to get onto the cold side of our jet stream,
0:03:09 > 0:03:13into some colder air, some polar air, potentially, for a time.
0:03:13 > 0:03:17So, it's possible that towards the end of the week next week,
0:03:17 > 0:03:20we might have our first significant cold snap.
0:03:20 > 0:03:23Temperatures actually a little bit below average, night-time frost,
0:03:23 > 0:03:25and a real shock to the system.
0:03:25 > 0:03:28Between now and then, particularly this weekend, huge concerns,
0:03:28 > 0:03:30amber warnings out from the Met Office for some flooding.