15/11/2015

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0:00:02 > 0:00:04Hello. There's some exceptional rainfall to come

0:00:04 > 0:00:06for some in the short-term.

0:00:06 > 0:00:08In the longer term, a change to colder weather on the horizon.

0:00:08 > 0:00:10We'll get on to that in just a moment.

0:00:10 > 0:00:13But first to the matter in hand and this conveyor belt of moisture

0:00:13 > 0:00:18from across the Atlantic slamming into the Western hills of the UK

0:00:18 > 0:00:22with rain totals continuing to mount, as is the concern.

0:00:22 > 0:00:24North Wales, north-west England

0:00:24 > 0:00:26into south-west Scotland in particular,

0:00:26 > 0:00:30on the highest hills here with Met Office Amber "be prepared" warnings

0:00:30 > 0:00:33in force seeing into the hundreds of millimetres in some spots.

0:00:33 > 0:00:37That rain, then, feeding into rivers and feeding lower down

0:00:37 > 0:00:40and that brings the potential for some significant flooding.

0:00:40 > 0:00:42Keep across weather warnings and flood warnings

0:00:42 > 0:00:45if you're in these areas. In fact, the Environment Agency

0:00:45 > 0:00:47has already got several severe

0:00:47 > 0:00:52flood warnings in force in Cumbria, Lancashire, for example, and that

0:00:52 > 0:00:56means danger to life so a potentially serious situation

0:00:56 > 0:00:57unfolding.

0:00:57 > 0:01:00And the rain continues on through Sunday.

0:01:00 > 0:01:01Stronger south-westerly winds,

0:01:01 > 0:01:02so a risk of gales,

0:01:02 > 0:01:04to the coastal south and west.

0:01:04 > 0:01:05Yes, the wettest weather

0:01:05 > 0:01:06will be in these Western hills,

0:01:06 > 0:01:08wet too at times into Northern Ireland.

0:01:08 > 0:01:11Elsewhere, plenty of cloud, little bit damp

0:01:11 > 0:01:12and drizzly occasionally,

0:01:12 > 0:01:14a milder day compared with Saturday.

0:01:14 > 0:01:16Still chilly for some,

0:01:16 > 0:01:17though, in the far north of Scotland.

0:01:17 > 0:01:20Now this weather system finally moves away

0:01:20 > 0:01:21as we go through Sunday night

0:01:21 > 0:01:23but if only that was the end

0:01:23 > 0:01:24of the wet weather this week.

0:01:24 > 0:01:25More weather systems

0:01:25 > 0:01:27are lining up in the Atlantic.

0:01:27 > 0:01:29As that system clears, though,

0:01:29 > 0:01:30the far north of Scotland could see

0:01:30 > 0:01:31severe gales once again

0:01:31 > 0:01:32going through Sunday night

0:01:32 > 0:01:34and into Monday morning.

0:01:34 > 0:01:36You're going to see some showers on Monday,

0:01:36 > 0:01:38but there's some brighter skies for a time,

0:01:38 > 0:01:39still pretty blustery,

0:01:39 > 0:01:41but by the end of the day you can see

0:01:41 > 0:01:43this next weather system showing its hand

0:01:43 > 0:01:45down towards the south-west.

0:01:45 > 0:01:47Looks like this will run very quickly

0:01:47 > 0:01:49across parts of England and Wales

0:01:49 > 0:01:50in particular late Monday.

0:01:50 > 0:01:52As it moves away, the gap before

0:01:52 > 0:01:54the next weather system isn't very big.

0:01:54 > 0:01:56And notice it's still very windy

0:01:56 > 0:01:59across the north-east of Scotland for a time.

0:01:59 > 0:02:01So, on Tuesday a bit of a gap,

0:02:01 > 0:02:02then the next weather system

0:02:02 > 0:02:04brings in further rainfall,

0:02:04 > 0:02:05quite strong winds on the southern flank

0:02:05 > 0:02:07of that as well, with gales in places.

0:02:07 > 0:02:09Northern Scotland is in the colder air.

0:02:09 > 0:02:11You can see quite a split here

0:02:11 > 0:02:14between that cold air to the north of the UK

0:02:14 > 0:02:17and the very mild air still to the south.

0:02:17 > 0:02:18So that system then clears away

0:02:18 > 0:02:20and then we get another break,

0:02:20 > 0:02:22but had the break isn't long enough

0:02:22 > 0:02:23because we get another

0:02:23 > 0:02:25low-pressure system

0:02:25 > 0:02:27targeting us later on Wednesday.

0:02:27 > 0:02:30So you can see these weather systems coming in.

0:02:30 > 0:02:31The rain isn't going to last

0:02:31 > 0:02:33as long as the one we have at the moment

0:02:33 > 0:02:35but it's going to add to the rain totals

0:02:35 > 0:02:36we're already seeing

0:02:36 > 0:02:38and that prolongs

0:02:38 > 0:02:40the risk of flooding even further.

0:02:40 > 0:02:42So this weather system is still around

0:02:42 > 0:02:43as we go into Thursday.

0:02:43 > 0:02:45Still very windy around that,

0:02:45 > 0:02:47still plenty of showers,

0:02:47 > 0:02:49more prolonged wet weather perhaps

0:02:49 > 0:02:50across parts of Scotland,

0:02:50 > 0:02:51a trailing weather front

0:02:51 > 0:02:52giving some outbreaks of rain

0:02:52 > 0:02:54towards southern England

0:02:54 > 0:02:56where still it is very mild,

0:02:56 > 0:02:58still quite chilly in northern Scotland.

0:02:58 > 0:03:02Now I mentioned a change to colder air and that looks like

0:03:02 > 0:03:05it's going to happen at the end of the week and into next weekend.

0:03:05 > 0:03:09The air around this low-pressure starts to drag something colder

0:03:09 > 0:03:13from the north or north west and that cold air, as a result,

0:03:13 > 0:03:17penetrates further south across the UK and as does the risk of getting

0:03:17 > 0:03:21some snow showers further south too and potentially not just on hills.

0:03:21 > 0:03:24Something we're certainly going to need to watch -

0:03:24 > 0:03:26from rainfall to colder weather

0:03:26 > 0:03:28and that's what's on the horizon.

0:03:28 > 0:03:30Keep checking those warnings online.

0:03:31 > 0:03:32We're looking for a trap street.

0:03:32 > 0:03:35They're somehow making our eyes skate right over it.

0:03:35 > 0:03:37It's called a misdirection circuit.