0:00:03 > 0:00:06Hello. Sometimes the extraordinary goes on so long, it seems ordinary,
0:00:06 > 0:00:08but November really shouldn't be this mild.
0:00:08 > 0:00:11The Met Office tells us the first half of the month was
0:00:11 > 0:00:14the second warmest start to November on record.
0:00:14 > 0:00:18We achieved the warmest November day and November night we've seen,
0:00:18 > 0:00:20but things are about to change
0:00:20 > 0:00:22and quite significantly and, as ever,
0:00:22 > 0:00:24all the clues are in the Jet stream.
0:00:24 > 0:00:26It has been bringing an air in
0:00:26 > 0:00:27from the west or south-west,
0:00:27 > 0:00:29but wet and windy weather systems too.
0:00:29 > 0:00:32But then, look at this going into the weekend.
0:00:32 > 0:00:33Right from the north,
0:00:33 > 0:00:35we drag arctic air across the UK,
0:00:35 > 0:00:37it's going to feel so different.
0:00:37 > 0:00:38Not quite here yet,
0:00:38 > 0:00:40it's lurking behind this weather front
0:00:40 > 0:00:41close to northern Scotland.
0:00:41 > 0:00:44That's where the isobars are lining up from the Arctic.
0:00:44 > 0:00:46So, on Thursday, it's pretty much as you were,
0:00:46 > 0:00:48although double-figure temperatures across
0:00:48 > 0:00:50southern England and south Wales
0:00:50 > 0:00:52held back by cloud, some outbreaks of rain.
0:00:52 > 0:00:53It'll be a blustery day,
0:00:53 > 0:00:56not quite as windy as Wednesday.
0:00:56 > 0:00:57There'll be showers coming into Scotland,
0:00:57 > 0:00:59Northern Ireland, north-west England
0:00:59 > 0:01:01and persistent rain for parts of northern Scotland
0:01:01 > 0:01:04close to that weather front, but as you can see,
0:01:04 > 0:01:06many again getting into double figures.
0:01:06 > 0:01:07Now, as we go through Thursday night,
0:01:07 > 0:01:09this weather front to the south
0:01:09 > 0:01:10has another ripple of energy,
0:01:10 > 0:01:12bringing some rain back to parts of south Wales
0:01:12 > 0:01:14and southern England as Friday begins.
0:01:14 > 0:01:15That weather front is still
0:01:15 > 0:01:17in northern Scotland, making it wet.
0:01:17 > 0:01:20The southern front pulls away southwards on Friday
0:01:20 > 0:01:21and then we look to the north.
0:01:21 > 0:01:23The wind changing direction,
0:01:23 > 0:01:24colder air starting to come in,
0:01:24 > 0:01:26showers turning increasingly to snow
0:01:26 > 0:01:28to ever lower ground in Scotland.
0:01:28 > 0:01:30And if you're a fan of arctic air,
0:01:30 > 0:01:33you will like this weather chart here.
0:01:33 > 0:01:35You'll be very interested too
0:01:35 > 0:01:37in this system in the North Sea.
0:01:37 > 0:01:39A lot of uncertainty about it at the moment,
0:01:39 > 0:01:40but it has the potential -
0:01:40 > 0:01:43Friday night and into Saturday morning -
0:01:43 > 0:01:44to bring some wet weather
0:01:44 > 0:01:45down this eastern side of the UK,
0:01:45 > 0:01:46rain on the coast,
0:01:46 > 0:01:48but in that cold air inland,
0:01:48 > 0:01:50even to low ground,
0:01:50 > 0:01:51we could be seeing some snow.
0:01:51 > 0:01:53So snow on the ground or snow falling for some
0:01:53 > 0:01:55as Saturday begins. Windy too,
0:01:55 > 0:01:58so gotta factor in wind chill as well.
0:01:58 > 0:02:00Saturday night, there'll be a frost for many.
0:02:00 > 0:02:02This weather system working southwards
0:02:02 > 0:02:03has some less cold air
0:02:03 > 0:02:06associated with it for a time,
0:02:06 > 0:02:07so maybe producing some rain,
0:02:07 > 0:02:08but then, on Sunday,
0:02:08 > 0:02:10the colder air digs back in.
0:02:10 > 0:02:12There'll be showers, especially coastal areas.
0:02:12 > 0:02:14Rain, sleet, hail.
0:02:14 > 0:02:16Snow to any that fall inland,
0:02:16 > 0:02:18but a lot of dry weather too
0:02:18 > 0:02:19and some sunshine
0:02:19 > 0:02:20in this crisp arctic air.
0:02:20 > 0:02:22But it looks like being a short, sharp shock,
0:02:22 > 0:02:23because, into next week,
0:02:23 > 0:02:25around this area of high pressure -
0:02:25 > 0:02:27notice the isobars going into Monday
0:02:27 > 0:02:28no longer from the north,
0:02:28 > 0:02:30but just coming round that high pressure
0:02:30 > 0:02:31from the Atlantic once again
0:02:31 > 0:02:33and, as that process takes place,
0:02:33 > 0:02:36we topple milder air in
0:02:36 > 0:02:39south-eastwards across the UK during Monday,
0:02:39 > 0:02:42so it becomes less cold once again.
0:02:42 > 0:02:43That again is about another change
0:02:43 > 0:02:45in the position of the Jet stream.
0:02:45 > 0:02:46As that process happens,
0:02:46 > 0:02:47we take some cloud and rain
0:02:47 > 0:02:49southwards across the UK.
0:02:49 > 0:02:51Initially snow on Scottish hills.
0:02:51 > 0:02:53But even here, it's likely to turn to rain.
0:02:53 > 0:02:55Notice those temperatures coming up.
0:02:55 > 0:02:57So, next week, then, the jet stream,
0:02:57 > 0:02:59it's not straight down from the north,
0:02:59 > 0:03:01it's coming around at high pressure across the Atlantic.
0:03:01 > 0:03:03As it does so, it could well bring back
0:03:03 > 0:03:06the potential for further wet and windy weather systems
0:03:06 > 0:03:08hitting the north-west of the UK first.
0:03:08 > 0:03:10That is something we need to watch.
0:03:10 > 0:03:12But it's all about the change in the feel of the weather.
0:03:12 > 0:03:14November so far, 15. We saw that again.
0:03:14 > 0:03:17Maybe North Wales on Wednesday, for example,
0:03:17 > 0:03:19but by this weekend, 5 at best.
0:03:19 > 0:03:21Some of us won't even get that high.
0:03:21 > 0:03:23And next week, we're not going to recover the ground,
0:03:23 > 0:03:25even though it turns a bit milder again around 9 degrees.
0:03:25 > 0:03:26Closer to reality November.
0:03:26 > 0:03:29Some people tell me they want cold weather!
0:03:29 > 0:03:30It's coming, whether you like it or not.