0:00:04 > 0:00:06Hello. The weekend may have brought a real taste
0:00:06 > 0:00:08of winter across parts of northern England,
0:00:08 > 0:00:09Northern Ireland and Scotland.
0:00:09 > 0:00:12The week ahead does something completely different.
0:00:12 > 0:00:14It takes us back to square one. Essentially a mild week.
0:00:14 > 0:00:16Out of step with the season for many of us,
0:00:16 > 0:00:17quite breezy at times
0:00:17 > 0:00:20and with exception of parts of south-west England
0:00:20 > 0:00:22and parts of south Wales, not quite as wet as it has been.
0:00:22 > 0:00:24This is most important
0:00:24 > 0:00:26across those areas hit by flooding.
0:00:26 > 0:00:28We saw exceptional rainfall last weekend in Cumbria
0:00:28 > 0:00:30but let's just look at the wider picture.
0:00:30 > 0:00:33Shap has seen nearly 90 centimetres of rain
0:00:33 > 0:00:34in the past six weeks,
0:00:34 > 0:00:38that equates to six months' worth of rainfall.
0:00:38 > 0:00:40Same sort of values too to Capel Curig
0:00:40 > 0:00:43where just over 1.25 metres has fallen.
0:00:43 > 0:00:45Yes, six weeks, six months of rainfall
0:00:45 > 0:00:47so you can understand the problem we've had here
0:00:47 > 0:00:49with the rivers very high, the saturated ground
0:00:49 > 0:00:51and we really want these low pressures
0:00:51 > 0:00:52to spin their way in. At the moment,
0:00:52 > 0:00:54it's got a fairly weak jet stream overhead
0:00:54 > 0:00:56and so they just meander to the west of us
0:00:56 > 0:00:57as they do on Monday.
0:00:57 > 0:00:59We do have some weather fronts stranded -
0:00:59 > 0:01:01one across parts of central Scotland,
0:01:01 > 0:01:03that's what produces snow through the night
0:01:03 > 0:01:05and fizzles out through the Forth-Clyde valley,
0:01:05 > 0:01:07and another pushing into south-west England
0:01:07 > 0:01:08and Wales later on,
0:01:08 > 0:01:10bringing with it a strengthening breeze.
0:01:10 > 0:01:12In-between, we're stuck with very cloudy conditions.
0:01:12 > 0:01:14For many, temperatures at, if not above
0:01:14 > 0:01:16where they should be for the time of year,
0:01:16 > 0:01:18only a few cloud breaks here and there.
0:01:18 > 0:01:20Through Monday evening and overnight,
0:01:20 > 0:01:22the weather fronts from the south-west
0:01:22 > 0:01:25try to push their way northwards but without that jet stream,
0:01:25 > 0:01:28they just fizzle out, really. Our area of low pressure
0:01:28 > 0:01:29doesn't really want to shove in towards us
0:01:29 > 0:01:31and is replaced by another one
0:01:31 > 0:01:33pushing up from the south-west.
0:01:33 > 0:01:34It leads in Tuesday
0:01:34 > 0:01:37on a fairly weak east to south-easterly airflow,
0:01:37 > 0:01:39not an especially warm one across Scotland
0:01:39 > 0:01:41but there'll be some brightness breaking through,
0:01:41 > 0:01:43as you could see in parts of Cumbria
0:01:43 > 0:01:44and the far north of Northern Ireland.
0:01:44 > 0:01:47And that south-east wind always keeps things drier
0:01:47 > 0:01:50in those areas where we see some of the wettest weather of late.
0:01:50 > 0:01:52However, you'll notice another weather front
0:01:52 > 0:01:54into south-west England and south Wales
0:01:54 > 0:01:56by the end of Tuesday but stronger winds with this one.
0:01:56 > 0:01:57Little area of low pressure
0:01:57 > 0:01:59tries a better go at pushing across the UK.
0:01:59 > 0:02:01England and Wales especially, gales through the night,
0:02:01 > 0:02:03some outbreaks of rain,
0:02:03 > 0:02:04all starting to ease through the day.
0:02:04 > 0:02:06Heavy spurts of rain through the Midlands
0:02:06 > 0:02:08into the east of the Pennines
0:02:08 > 0:02:10so we'll keep a very close eye on river levels
0:02:10 > 0:02:13and the risk of flooding. But with south-easterly winds,
0:02:13 > 0:02:16it does mean this north-western corner always that bit drier
0:02:16 > 0:02:19and most places should finish the day dry anyway.
0:02:19 > 0:02:21Through Wednesday night into Thursday,
0:02:21 > 0:02:23more low pressures out to the west and we're dragging in
0:02:23 > 0:02:26an even more southerly track of wind across the UK.
0:02:26 > 0:02:27Through the night,
0:02:27 > 0:02:29exceptionally mild temperatures,
0:02:29 > 0:02:30could be in the teens for some
0:02:30 > 0:02:32and stay that way throughout Thursday,
0:02:32 > 0:02:33only cooling off later on
0:02:33 > 0:02:36as a cold front pushes its way from west to east.
0:02:36 > 0:02:37Have to watch this,
0:02:37 > 0:02:38it looks like it should push through enough
0:02:38 > 0:02:40not to give us any problems
0:02:40 > 0:02:41but if it slows down its progress,
0:02:41 > 0:02:44of course that risk of flooding will be there.
0:02:44 > 0:02:45Into Friday,
0:02:45 > 0:02:47we're back to west to south-westerly winds,
0:02:47 > 0:02:50blustery conditions but a brief ridge of high pressure
0:02:50 > 0:02:52does mean that morning cloud will break up.
0:02:52 > 0:02:53We'll see some sunny spells around,
0:02:53 > 0:02:56enough of a breeze just to stop low cloud lingering
0:02:56 > 0:02:58but it does bring in more rain to western areas later
0:02:58 > 0:03:00and then we start to see the jet stream
0:03:00 > 0:03:01kick back into gear.
0:03:01 > 0:03:04So as we go through the weekend and into Christmas week,
0:03:04 > 0:03:06a fighter jet stream, a more vigorous jet stream,
0:03:06 > 0:03:08we're back to seeing areas of low pressure
0:03:08 > 0:03:10sweep their way through.
0:03:10 > 0:03:12So, as we go into Christmas week,
0:03:12 > 0:03:14it's a case of further spells of rain
0:03:14 > 0:03:16across all parts of the country.
0:03:16 > 0:03:17It will be quite windy at times,
0:03:17 > 0:03:19potentially stormy in the lead-up to Christmas.
0:03:19 > 0:03:22Temperatures will be at or above where they should be
0:03:22 > 0:03:24but because low pressure is pushing through,
0:03:24 > 0:03:26as the winds go west to north-westerly every now and again
0:03:26 > 0:03:28and between those low pressure systems,
0:03:28 > 0:03:30it will turn that little bit cooler.
0:03:30 > 0:03:31More tomorrow. Bye.