0:00:03 > 0:00:06Well, some records have already been tumbling,
0:00:06 > 0:00:08and if we carry on like this, we could well be on course
0:00:08 > 0:00:11for one of the warmest, if not the warmest, Decembers on record,
0:00:11 > 0:00:12and nature has been responding.
0:00:12 > 0:00:16Lovely out there in the garden, some spring bulbs already shooting up.
0:00:16 > 0:00:19I want to take some time to explain some of the factors behind this
0:00:19 > 0:00:22warmth, and one piece in the jigsaw, we think, is El Nino.
0:00:22 > 0:00:26El Nino is the unusual warmth developing in the Pacific Ocean,
0:00:26 > 0:00:29and it's been a particularly strong El Nino through this year.
0:00:29 > 0:00:32The ocean and the atmosphere are all joined up, of course.
0:00:32 > 0:00:37What happens in the Pacific could well have an impact closer to home.
0:00:37 > 0:00:39Here in the Arctic Ocean,
0:00:39 > 0:00:41it's thought the strong El Nino can affect
0:00:41 > 0:00:45the strength of the circulation dividing the cold air to the north
0:00:45 > 0:00:47and the warmer air to the south.
0:00:47 > 0:00:50And specifically in the Atlantic, so far this December,
0:00:50 > 0:00:55we've had unusually cold air plunging down into the western Atlantic,
0:00:55 > 0:00:58whereas further east we've had a dome of warmth,
0:00:58 > 0:01:02and this sort of pattern has kind of got stuck in a rut.
0:01:02 > 0:01:04And of course, it's the dividing line between the cold
0:01:04 > 0:01:06and the warm which drives the jet stream,
0:01:06 > 0:01:09and it's the jet stream which brings our weather system,
0:01:09 > 0:01:13and this strong jet stream has been bringing all this rain and wind
0:01:13 > 0:01:15across the north and the west of the UK,
0:01:15 > 0:01:17and flooding of course in some places already this month.
0:01:17 > 0:01:20It's a similar pattern, really, for the next few days.
0:01:20 > 0:01:22Low pressure systems getting driven by the jet stream,
0:01:22 > 0:01:24up towards the north-west,
0:01:24 > 0:01:26and that's where most of the rain is again on Thursday.
0:01:26 > 0:01:29This weather system brings some pretty heavy rain
0:01:29 > 0:01:32from Scotland and Northern Ireland, into the more north- western parts
0:01:32 > 0:01:35of England and Wales, weakening as it pushes south-eastwards.
0:01:35 > 0:01:38Another very mild day, and the sunshine across the south-east,
0:01:38 > 0:01:4115, possibly 16 degrees.
0:01:41 > 0:01:44Not much rain left as it reaches East Anglia and the south-east,
0:01:44 > 0:01:47and then our attention turns again to the north-west,
0:01:47 > 0:01:50the next weather system comes powering in
0:01:50 > 0:01:51and that's of some concern,
0:01:51 > 0:01:54because that rain really is going to set in, quite heavy
0:01:54 > 0:01:56and persistent rain across Northern Ireland, Scotland,
0:01:56 > 0:01:58and more north-western parts of England and Wales,
0:01:58 > 0:02:01whereas further south and east again, it stays mostly dry
0:02:01 > 0:02:04and this is where the highest temperatures will be.
0:02:04 > 0:02:05Let's focus in on the north-west,
0:02:05 > 0:02:08and we can see a lot of rain from Friday into Saturday
0:02:08 > 0:02:11across parts of south-west Scotland, north-west England.
0:02:11 > 0:02:14Of course, the catchments here are going to respond pretty quickly,
0:02:14 > 0:02:17given the amount of rain we've already seen in recent weeks,
0:02:17 > 0:02:19so a lot of wet weather here and strong winds too.
0:02:19 > 0:02:22Once more, further south and east on Saturday, it'll be drier.
0:02:22 > 0:02:2614 or 15 degrees, remarkably mild yet again.
0:02:26 > 0:02:29So a very mild start to the weekend with some rain around.
0:02:29 > 0:02:31By Sunday it turns fresher.
0:02:31 > 0:02:34Fresher, not colder, just fresher,
0:02:34 > 0:02:35with sunshine and showers.
0:02:35 > 0:02:38A cold front having gone past the country introducing those
0:02:38 > 0:02:41somewhat cooler westerly winds.
0:02:41 > 0:02:43We'll see a mixture of sunshine and showers,
0:02:43 > 0:02:45and those showers could well gang together to give some
0:02:45 > 0:02:48longer spells of rain in one or two places, but there will be some
0:02:48 > 0:02:51bright spells in between, and yes, it's not exactly going to be cold.
0:02:51 > 0:02:54Temperatures just a little bit lower, particularly across the north
0:02:54 > 0:02:56and the west, and then guess what, on Monday,
0:02:56 > 0:02:58we see another low pressure system driving further
0:02:58 > 0:03:00active fronts in across the UK, and yet again,
0:03:00 > 0:03:03it's going to be the more north-western parts of the country
0:03:03 > 0:03:05that are going to bear the brunt.
0:03:05 > 0:03:07We'll have to keep an eye on this system.
0:03:07 > 0:03:09We could see some very strong winds indeed.
0:03:09 > 0:03:11The rain and the wind last to reach
0:03:11 > 0:03:13the more south-eastern parts of the UK.
0:03:13 > 0:03:15So as we approach Christmas, more of the same.
0:03:15 > 0:03:17Yes, strong winds, heavy rain.
0:03:17 > 0:03:20Generally mild, there will be some chillier interludes.
0:03:20 > 0:03:23White Christmas looking unlikely for most places.
0:03:23 > 0:03:27This general pattern might begin to change after Christmas,
0:03:27 > 0:03:29but Darren Bett will update you tomorrow.
0:03:34 > 0:03:36We are ready to begin.