0:00:03 > 0:00:04Hello. There is no sign
0:00:04 > 0:00:06of our weather patterns changing significantly,
0:00:06 > 0:00:09even as we head into the start of 2016,
0:00:09 > 0:00:11which means, yes, more weather systems
0:00:11 > 0:00:13coming in from the Atlantic.
0:00:13 > 0:00:14Our weather generally coming up
0:00:14 > 0:00:15from the south-west.
0:00:15 > 0:00:17So, it seems pretty mild,
0:00:17 > 0:00:18and it stays often wet
0:00:18 > 0:00:21and frequently blustery too,
0:00:21 > 0:00:22with low pressure system
0:00:22 > 0:00:23after low pressure system.
0:00:23 > 0:00:24This one in particular
0:00:24 > 0:00:26giving us headaches at the moment.
0:00:26 > 0:00:28Slow-moving weather fronts
0:00:28 > 0:00:30bringing persistent rain during Boxing Day
0:00:30 > 0:00:31across parts of North Wales,
0:00:31 > 0:00:33Northern England, Southern Scotland -
0:00:33 > 0:00:36anywhere in this zone at risk of flooding.
0:00:36 > 0:00:39The Met office has an Amber - be prepared - Warning
0:00:39 > 0:00:41in force for parts of Cumbria and Lancashire,
0:00:41 > 0:00:43because here we are just so sensitive
0:00:43 > 0:00:46after all the rain of recent weeks.
0:00:46 > 0:00:47Further south, it is another dry,
0:00:47 > 0:00:49rather drab day on Boxing Day.
0:00:49 > 0:00:50It is a bit blustery.
0:00:50 > 0:00:52We could see some brightness.
0:00:52 > 0:00:53Overall, it is just mild and cloudy.
0:00:53 > 0:00:55Then, we are into the rain -
0:00:55 > 0:00:56persistent, heavy rain.
0:00:56 > 0:00:58North Wales, much of Northern England
0:00:58 > 0:01:00and Southern Scotland too.
0:01:00 > 0:01:01Could be some rain for a time
0:01:01 > 0:01:02across the east of Northern Ireland.
0:01:02 > 0:01:04Of course, Northern Scotland,
0:01:04 > 0:01:05there will be a fair bit of snow falling
0:01:05 > 0:01:07over the hills here.
0:01:07 > 0:01:09But, as I say, the greatest cause for concern
0:01:09 > 0:01:10from the slow-moving weather front
0:01:10 > 0:01:12across Southern Scotland and Northern England
0:01:12 > 0:01:13and North Wales.
0:01:13 > 0:01:16That is where we have those weather warnings in force.
0:01:16 > 0:01:17This wriggling weather front,
0:01:17 > 0:01:19well, there is always some uncertainty
0:01:19 > 0:01:20when we get these little ripples on them.
0:01:20 > 0:01:23Again, some question marks about exactly where
0:01:23 > 0:01:24this band of rain is sitting for Sunday,
0:01:24 > 0:01:26but, again, the threat of some more rain
0:01:26 > 0:01:27into Sunday morning
0:01:27 > 0:01:29across Northern England and North Wales.
0:01:29 > 0:01:30It is going to be fizzling out
0:01:30 > 0:01:32as we go through Sunday.
0:01:32 > 0:01:33That band of rain marks the boundary
0:01:33 > 0:01:36between the really mild conditions in the south,
0:01:36 > 0:01:38and, well, the more typical conditions -
0:01:38 > 0:01:41temperatures close to average across Scotland.
0:01:41 > 0:01:42There will be some sunshine here.
0:01:42 > 0:01:43Monday's chart -
0:01:43 > 0:01:45it is all about weather fronts and isobars,
0:01:45 > 0:01:48but, again, those isobars pointing well down to the south,
0:01:48 > 0:01:51south-west, drawing up relatively mild air.
0:01:51 > 0:01:52That mild air is set to last
0:01:52 > 0:01:54throughout the rest of this year.
0:01:54 > 0:01:56Particularly so on Monday -
0:01:56 > 0:01:58temperatures, well, we see some sunshine,
0:01:58 > 0:02:00could get into the teens once more.
0:02:00 > 0:02:01A little cooler perhaps
0:02:01 > 0:02:03on some of these eastern coasts,
0:02:03 > 0:02:04but even here, 10 or 11 is above average.
0:02:04 > 0:02:06A warmer day across Western Scotland,
0:02:06 > 0:02:07and further south, as I say,
0:02:07 > 0:02:10we could get 13 or 14 Celsius.
0:02:10 > 0:02:12Then, for Tuesday and Wednesday,
0:02:12 > 0:02:14we are keeping our eyes on this area
0:02:14 > 0:02:16of low pressure intensifying.
0:02:16 > 0:02:18Look at the number of isobars around that low.
0:02:18 > 0:02:19It could get very, very windy indeed.
0:02:19 > 0:02:21A few days off,
0:02:21 > 0:02:23some uncertainty about the track of that storm,
0:02:23 > 0:02:26but the potential for some stormy weather
0:02:26 > 0:02:27arriving late on Tuesday.
0:02:27 > 0:02:29Ahead of it, we have still got southerly winds,
0:02:29 > 0:02:30it's still mild.
0:02:30 > 0:02:31It's generally a dry day
0:02:31 > 0:02:34until that rain starts to arrive in the west.
0:02:34 > 0:02:36Then, it's very wet and very windy,
0:02:36 > 0:02:37it looks like, on Tuesday night
0:02:37 > 0:02:38and through Wednesday.
0:02:38 > 0:02:40The potential for severe gales.
0:02:40 > 0:02:42The potential for more heavy rain
0:02:42 > 0:02:46as that intense area of low pressure moves through.
0:02:46 > 0:02:47It looks most like as if
0:02:47 > 0:02:49it will go to the north of Scotland.
0:02:49 > 0:02:50Why so lively, the weather?
0:02:50 > 0:02:51Well, we have to look high up
0:02:51 > 0:02:52at the jet stream -
0:02:52 > 0:02:54that fast-moving ribbon of air,
0:02:54 > 0:02:5530,000 feet up.
0:02:55 > 0:02:56There is a bit of a dip in it,
0:02:56 > 0:02:59which can be a breeding ground for low pressure systems,
0:02:59 > 0:03:00and a very active jet stream
0:03:00 > 0:03:03set to drive another intensifying area of low pressure,
0:03:03 > 0:03:05certainly close to the UK
0:03:05 > 0:03:07as we head towards the New Year.
0:03:07 > 0:03:10So, we are going to keep our eyes peeled
0:03:10 > 0:03:13over the next few days, for the rest of next week.
0:03:13 > 0:03:15Again, likely to see some strong winds,
0:03:15 > 0:03:17potential for further flooding,
0:03:17 > 0:03:19and even into the start of the New Year -
0:03:19 > 0:03:20very little change.
0:03:20 > 0:03:21Spells of wind and rain,
0:03:21 > 0:03:23there'll be drier interludes.
0:03:23 > 0:03:25Overall, this very mild theme
0:03:25 > 0:03:26will continue.
0:03:26 > 0:03:28All the weather warnings will be constantly updated
0:03:28 > 0:03:30on the BBC weather website.
0:03:31 > 0:03:36# At last... #