10/02/2016

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0:00:04 > 0:00:06Hopefully nothing too extreme over the next few days.

0:00:06 > 0:00:09Fairly typical February weather in fact. A bit of a nip in the air.

0:00:09 > 0:00:11Cold enough for a bit of snow at times.

0:00:11 > 0:00:13That's been the case over the last 24 hours.

0:00:13 > 0:00:16Weather Watchers have been sending in pictures.

0:00:16 > 0:00:18This one from South Wales, on Tuesday afternoon,

0:00:18 > 0:00:20a dusting of snow at Tredegar.

0:00:20 > 0:00:23The reason for the chilly air, we've got a run of north-westerly winds.

0:00:23 > 0:00:25It's not desperately cold,

0:00:25 > 0:00:26but just about cold enough

0:00:26 > 0:00:28for some of those showers

0:00:28 > 0:00:29to fall as sleet or snow.

0:00:29 > 0:00:31Various fronts coming down in the flow,

0:00:31 > 0:00:33pepping up the shower activity at times.

0:00:33 > 0:00:36Many of us in between fronts on Wednesday,

0:00:36 > 0:00:38which means plenty of fine and dry weather.

0:00:38 > 0:00:40Sharp showers across the far South-West,

0:00:40 > 0:00:42wintry showers across the north of Scotland.

0:00:42 > 0:00:45Any showers elsewhere, fairly isolated.

0:00:45 > 0:00:46A feel-good day in fact.

0:00:46 > 0:00:48Out of the breeze and in the sunshine

0:00:48 > 0:00:49not feeling too bad.

0:00:49 > 0:00:515 to 9 degrees north to south.

0:00:51 > 0:00:52On into Thursday.

0:00:52 > 0:00:55It could be a frosty start for many of us,

0:00:55 > 0:00:56but a lot of dry weather.

0:00:56 > 0:00:58Area of clouds floating around,

0:00:58 > 0:01:00and one or two wintry showers,

0:01:00 > 0:01:02mostly across the north of Scotland.

0:01:02 > 0:01:04But many of us will stay dry.

0:01:04 > 0:01:07Then the fun starts as we approach the weekend.

0:01:07 > 0:01:08If you watched yesterday,

0:01:08 > 0:01:10you know there's a lot of uncertainty in the detail.

0:01:10 > 0:01:12And that's an understatement.

0:01:12 > 0:01:14Low pressure trying to push in from the West

0:01:14 > 0:01:16and it's south-western UK

0:01:16 > 0:01:18most at risk from rain on Friday.

0:01:18 > 0:01:20How far north and east it gets

0:01:20 > 0:01:23is open to question. Many places dry,

0:01:23 > 0:01:25but with a nagging easterly wind developing.

0:01:25 > 0:01:27That'll be a feature over the next few days.

0:01:27 > 0:01:30One area of low pressure slips away

0:01:30 > 0:01:32and another one will take its place.

0:01:32 > 0:01:34Again, it's the more south-western

0:01:34 > 0:01:35parts of the UK on Saturday

0:01:35 > 0:01:37most prone to seeing wet weather.

0:01:37 > 0:01:40That cold easterly wind elsewhere, it looks as if

0:01:40 > 0:01:42they'll be a lot of dry weather

0:01:42 > 0:01:43the further north and east we go.

0:01:43 > 0:01:46But feeling cold, just four or five degrees.

0:01:46 > 0:01:48Those low-pressure systems

0:01:48 > 0:01:50are in association with milder air

0:01:50 > 0:01:52trying to push the cold air away.

0:01:52 > 0:01:54Where the cold meets the mild,

0:01:54 > 0:01:56there is the possibility

0:01:56 > 0:01:58that some of the rain turns to snow.

0:01:58 > 0:02:02But we are really no further to clarifying that scenario

0:02:02 > 0:02:03than we were 24 hours ago.

0:02:03 > 0:02:06Certainly some rain around in the South particularly,

0:02:06 > 0:02:10and that risk of snow as it bumps into the cold air.

0:02:10 > 0:02:12What we do think is that as we get

0:02:12 > 0:02:14into the early part of next week,

0:02:14 > 0:02:15low pressure drifts away

0:02:15 > 0:02:17and we get a run of cold northerly winds

0:02:17 > 0:02:19sweeping across the whole country.

0:02:19 > 0:02:22So in some senses we're more confident about early next week

0:02:22 > 0:02:25than we are about the weekend. The blues take over,

0:02:25 > 0:02:28so it will turn cold for all of us through the early part of next week.

0:02:28 > 0:02:31Quite chilly in a blustery wind as well.

0:02:31 > 0:02:32It means we'll see

0:02:32 > 0:02:34some widespread frosts overnight.

0:02:34 > 0:02:37But with time, plenty of dry and fine weather.

0:02:37 > 0:02:41Eventually next week, it does look like turning more unsettled,

0:02:41 > 0:02:43milder, cloudier, with some rain.

0:02:43 > 0:02:46Milder air will try to push in off the Atlantic

0:02:46 > 0:02:49to displace the blues and push the cold air away,

0:02:49 > 0:02:52but there's a huge question as to how quickly that happens.

0:02:52 > 0:02:54As is often the case

0:02:54 > 0:02:56when we're trying to get rid of a block of cold air.

0:02:56 > 0:02:58It all hinges on the jet stream.

0:02:58 > 0:03:01The jet stream is there, it's ready to tip us over the edge,

0:03:01 > 0:03:05but how quickly it does that all depends on developments

0:03:05 > 0:03:07the other side of the pond in the Atlantic.

0:03:07 > 0:03:10And there's huge dips, huge meanders in the jet stream,

0:03:10 > 0:03:12as you can see, Stateside.

0:03:12 > 0:03:14When you get those meanders in the jet stream,

0:03:14 > 0:03:17there's a lot of uncertainty as to how quickly that jet pushes

0:03:17 > 0:03:20the mild air across the country. So what we say about next week

0:03:20 > 0:03:22is that it will be cold and frosty to start with.

0:03:22 > 0:03:23How long it lasts is another matter.

0:03:23 > 0:03:26We've got to look to West, to the jet stream,

0:03:26 > 0:03:28for clues on how quickly that mild air returns.

0:03:28 > 0:03:31I'll update you again tomorrow.

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0:03:39 > 0:03:42We've got a mind-blowing mix of bands playing.

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