15/02/2016

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0:00:01 > 0:00:04The week will end less cold than it starts

0:00:04 > 0:00:06but if you were watching me last week I was hinting

0:00:06 > 0:00:08that the end of this cold spell wouldn't be as straightforward

0:00:08 > 0:00:10as some computer models were indicating, it's going to be

0:00:10 > 0:00:13an interesting ride over the next few days, as we'll see in a moment.

0:00:13 > 0:00:16Certainly a very cold start to proceedings on Monday,

0:00:16 > 0:00:18further sleet and snow showers down the eastern side,

0:00:18 > 0:00:20some of those will turn back to rain

0:00:20 > 0:00:24as the temperature rises a bit, lots of lovely sunshine elsewhere,

0:00:24 > 0:00:26it's going to be a bright, crisp, sunny day for the majority.

0:00:26 > 0:00:28Still breezy across eastern areas,

0:00:28 > 0:00:32the winds lighter further west, 3-7 degrees, north to south.

0:00:32 > 0:00:35As soon as the sun sets temperatures will fall away very quickly,

0:00:35 > 0:00:37we will soon go into frost,

0:00:37 > 0:00:40notice though how the blues tend to be across England and Wales

0:00:40 > 0:00:42as we get into the latter part of the night

0:00:42 > 0:00:44where as in Northern Ireland and Scotland

0:00:44 > 0:00:46you may see temperatures rise.

0:00:46 > 0:00:49So, by Tuesday morning, -7 across the heart of England,

0:00:49 > 0:00:52nearer 5 degrees across the far north-west of Scotland.

0:00:52 > 0:00:54That's because we have a weather front approaching

0:00:54 > 0:00:56which will thicken up the cloud,

0:00:56 > 0:00:58increasing the wind, and bringing some rain,

0:00:58 > 0:01:01very wet and windy weather across the far northwest in particular,

0:01:01 > 0:01:04and a period of snow over high ground, principally.

0:01:04 > 0:01:06In contrast, for England and Wales,

0:01:06 > 0:01:09it's going to be another fine day,

0:01:09 > 0:01:10after that cold and frosty start.

0:01:10 > 0:01:14Mild air is trying to push in from that weather front,

0:01:14 > 0:01:15but there is a catch.

0:01:15 > 0:01:19It is intensely cold across the north-eastern states, -28.

0:01:19 > 0:01:22That cold air will whistle across the Atlantic,

0:01:22 > 0:01:24it will warm out as it crosses the sea,

0:01:24 > 0:01:26but that cold air, such that it is,

0:01:26 > 0:01:28will push into the back of that weather front

0:01:28 > 0:01:31which will be stranded across the heart of the UK on Wednesday.

0:01:31 > 0:01:33So we've got cold air on either side,

0:01:33 > 0:01:36which does mean that some of the rain within this zone

0:01:36 > 0:01:37could turn to snow.

0:01:37 > 0:01:40There is a lot of uncertainty, this front could be further west,

0:01:40 > 0:01:42or further east, but parts of northern England could be prone

0:01:42 > 0:01:44to seeing some snowfall,

0:01:44 > 0:01:45particularly later on in the day,

0:01:45 > 0:01:48and that risk extends into some Eastern counties

0:01:48 > 0:01:50as we head into the night.

0:01:50 > 0:01:51Let's follow that front.

0:01:51 > 0:01:53Very slowly, as we go through Wednesday night

0:01:53 > 0:01:56into Thursday morning, it's going to track its way further eastwards,

0:01:56 > 0:01:58taking most of the rain and snow with it.

0:01:58 > 0:02:01Behind that, brighter skies, some sunshine for many,

0:02:01 > 0:02:03eventually, once the front clears away on Thursday.

0:02:03 > 0:02:08Still chilly though, and some wintry showers across the north-west.

0:02:08 > 0:02:11We end the week with the jet stream waking up.

0:02:11 > 0:02:15And of course the jet stream is what drives our low-pressure systems

0:02:15 > 0:02:17off the Atlantic, and it's going to be coming in

0:02:17 > 0:02:20at a fair rate of knots, from west to east.

0:02:20 > 0:02:23So no surprise that we will see an area of low pressure

0:02:23 > 0:02:27carried by the jet stream, initially affecting more north-western parts

0:02:27 > 0:02:29of the UK on Friday, tracking towards the south and east.

0:02:29 > 0:02:32The timing of this is a little bit open to question,

0:02:32 > 0:02:34several days ahead, but it will be turning increasingly wet

0:02:34 > 0:02:36and windy from the north-west,

0:02:36 > 0:02:38and temperatures beginning to rise.

0:02:38 > 0:02:40Particularly across southern areas.

0:02:40 > 0:02:43Into Saturday, those fronts should have cleared eastwards,

0:02:43 > 0:02:45but further fronts following on behind.

0:02:45 > 0:02:48You'll notice though, we are into double figures now

0:02:48 > 0:02:51across southern areas, not so mild further north,

0:02:51 > 0:02:53but certainly not as cold as it has been.

0:02:53 > 0:02:54Through next weekend then,

0:02:54 > 0:02:58we're sort of the dividing line between the mild and the cold.

0:02:58 > 0:03:01Most of us are affected by significantly milder air

0:03:01 > 0:03:02by next weekend.

0:03:02 > 0:03:04And it's the contrast between the mild and the cold

0:03:04 > 0:03:05which drives that jet stream.

0:03:05 > 0:03:07So that will stay pretty strong.

0:03:07 > 0:03:10As that oscillates its way northwards and southwards

0:03:10 > 0:03:11over the next few days,

0:03:11 > 0:03:14so the cold and mild air will kind of head north and south as well.

0:03:14 > 0:03:17So the message is, into the early part of next week,

0:03:17 > 0:03:19I think temperatures will be fluctuating a little bit,

0:03:19 > 0:03:21probably wettest across northern areas,

0:03:21 > 0:03:24further south, lengthier dry spells,

0:03:24 > 0:03:26but for all of us will be pretty windy, I think,

0:03:26 > 0:03:28over the next several days.

0:03:28 > 0:03:30That's it, we will update you tomorrow.

0:03:42 > 0:03:44You're my psychiatrist, you want to know what's going on in my head

0:03:44 > 0:03:46and I want to know what's going on in your head.

0:03:46 > 0:03:48Nearly one in 500 new mothers

0:03:48 > 0:03:51can suffer from an extreme form of psychosis.

0:03:51 > 0:03:54No matter what you said, there was no comforting her.