0:00:04 > 0:00:06Hello. Although we still have a few more days to
0:00:06 > 0:00:09run of the meteorological winter, indications are that England
0:00:09 > 0:00:12and Wales have had their warmest winter on record.
0:00:12 > 0:00:15But actually for the past four or five days it has been more
0:00:15 > 0:00:19winter-like for most of us than it has been all season.
0:00:19 > 0:00:22We've had snow over the Highlands, snow through Snowdonia,
0:00:22 > 0:00:24we've had some rain around during the day on Friday
0:00:24 > 0:00:26but again it was the exception.
0:00:26 > 0:00:28For most of us it was a crisp, dry start.
0:00:28 > 0:00:30It will be a crisp, dry start, Saturday.
0:00:30 > 0:00:31A little bit of ice around potentially
0:00:31 > 0:00:34across Northern Ireland where we've had showers,
0:00:34 > 0:00:37possibly in some southern areas, but there's quite a breeze blowing
0:00:37 > 0:00:39here. And that's the main change for the weekend.
0:00:39 > 0:00:41It stays wintry. Night-time frosts,
0:00:41 > 0:00:44quite harsh frosts in the north followed by sunshine,
0:00:44 > 0:00:45and a few wintry showers.
0:00:45 > 0:00:48It will feel pleasant enough in the strengthening February sunshine.
0:00:48 > 0:00:50In the south a little bit more cloud.
0:00:50 > 0:00:53A few showers dotted around through northern England, the Midlands
0:00:53 > 0:00:57and Wales, but again for most parts it will be dry, reasonably bright,
0:00:57 > 0:01:00just the wind will make it feel colder across the south.
0:01:00 > 0:01:03But with high pressure in charge this weekend, as I say, we've
0:01:03 > 0:01:06already had three or four days of dry, crisp weather,
0:01:06 > 0:01:08we're going to have another couple of days of dry crisp
0:01:08 > 0:01:11weather before it finally gives way to this area of low pressure.
0:01:11 > 0:01:13Looks like we've got some disruptive weather to come
0:01:13 > 0:01:15though across parts of the Alps and southern France.
0:01:15 > 0:01:18Back home though, what we are encountering again is that
0:01:18 > 0:01:20strong north-easterly wind, near gale force,
0:01:20 > 0:01:22like Saturday through the Channel.
0:01:22 > 0:01:24That will just nag across England and Wales
0:01:24 > 0:01:27and make it feel colder compared with recent days.
0:01:27 > 0:01:30But not across Scotland and Northern Ireland.
0:01:30 > 0:01:32Really severe frosts to start the day. Minus eight to minus ten,
0:01:32 > 0:01:36with a lot of dry weather, some sunshine, although it will feel cold
0:01:36 > 0:01:39because of the wind in the south, or colder.
0:01:39 > 0:01:42Early next week, as I indicated, that high pressure and fine weather
0:01:42 > 0:01:45gets squeezed out of the way and it's back to business as usual,
0:01:45 > 0:01:47slightly milder air coming in off the Atlantic.
0:01:47 > 0:01:50The low pressure's bringing us spells of wet and windy weather.
0:01:50 > 0:01:52One whisks through, another one hot on its heels.
0:01:52 > 0:01:53So things are going to change.
0:01:53 > 0:01:56Not initially. Monday morning is still cold and frosty.
0:01:56 > 0:01:58And this time it looks like quite a harsh frost in the south.
0:01:58 > 0:02:00A little bit of mist and fog to clear.
0:02:00 > 0:02:03And it takes its time, the first weather system, to come
0:02:03 > 0:02:04in to dislodge that colder air.
0:02:04 > 0:02:07As it comes into the colder air there's a real risk of some
0:02:07 > 0:02:10wintriness on the forward edge of that, perhaps some snow around.
0:02:10 > 0:02:13But that's gone by Tuesday and we're into that milder envelope of air.
0:02:13 > 0:02:16But notice that some areas were raining on Monday, they're still
0:02:16 > 0:02:19raining on Tuesday, so we're going to be watching the amounts
0:02:19 > 0:02:23of rainfall that we see. We could see 50 plus mm of rain in places.
0:02:23 > 0:02:26That's because we've got the jet stream back to a westerly.
0:02:26 > 0:02:28That's what we call a more mobile weather situation.
0:02:28 > 0:02:30It throws low pressures across the country.
0:02:30 > 0:02:33We get little ripples in it, so ridges of high-pressure
0:02:33 > 0:02:37building in, and at times an incursion of colder air again.
0:02:37 > 0:02:41But for the majority of the week we keep that westerly airstream
0:02:41 > 0:02:44going. Until late in the week and we start to see a big
0:02:44 > 0:02:46buckle in the jet stream coming out of the United States.
0:02:46 > 0:02:47What does that mean?
0:02:47 > 0:02:50It means that initially we have this fairly deep area of low
0:02:50 > 0:02:53pressure to the south of Iceland bringing yet more wind
0:02:53 > 0:02:56and rain in our way, but behind me we've got high-pressure with that
0:02:56 > 0:02:59buckle in the jet stream building out of the eastern seaboard.
0:02:59 > 0:03:03That high pressure is going to dislodge the low pressures
0:03:03 > 0:03:06later in the week. We'll see that moving away.
0:03:06 > 0:03:10The high-pressure moving its way steadily in and ahead of it
0:03:10 > 0:03:13that north to north-westerly wind dragging in the colder air.
0:03:13 > 0:03:16So the colder air looks set to return next weekend.
0:03:16 > 0:03:19So it'll be back to high pressure and hopefully settled weather.
0:03:19 > 0:03:21The frosts returning
0:03:21 > 0:03:24but some strong winds despite some crisp sunshine around.
0:03:24 > 0:03:27So a real topsy-turvy week. We will have that back to business as usual,
0:03:27 > 0:03:29but potentially some wintry weather again next weekend.