0:00:03 > 0:00:04Hello. February 2016 was a leap year
0:00:04 > 0:00:08and there was plenty of sparkle in the weather story to greet us,
0:00:08 > 0:00:11but the sparkle came from blue sky, sunshine,
0:00:11 > 0:00:12but also a hard frost as well.
0:00:12 > 0:00:15As you can see quite clearly from the weather watchers'
0:00:15 > 0:00:19photographs that were sent in in the morning, it was a beautiful start.
0:00:19 > 0:00:22The frost lifted as we had sunshine for a time,
0:00:22 > 0:00:24but then the cloud arrived later on in the day.
0:00:24 > 0:00:28The reason for the change that we've got to come through Tuesday
0:00:28 > 0:00:30is all tied in to this weather front.
0:00:30 > 0:00:32It's going to continue to bring some wet and windy weather.
0:00:32 > 0:00:34The heaviest of rain from the west.
0:00:34 > 0:00:38But, more noticeably, it's going to introduce milder air from the west.
0:00:38 > 0:00:41That means a change to the story, for today at least.
0:00:41 > 0:00:43The rain clears away to the south-east,
0:00:43 > 0:00:45a trail of showers behind.
0:00:45 > 0:00:48But temperatures widely into double figures, particularly through
0:00:48 > 0:00:51England and Wales, something that we've not seen for quite some time.
0:00:51 > 0:00:54Highs of 8 to 12 degrees.
0:00:54 > 0:00:58It's all change again, though, as we run out of Tuesday into Wednesday.
0:00:58 > 0:01:01We see these weather fronts starting to drift their way south
0:01:01 > 0:01:02and east through the night
0:01:02 > 0:01:06and the wind swinging back round to more of a north-westerly direction.
0:01:06 > 0:01:09So cold air floods in again and that means that some of those
0:01:09 > 0:01:11showers could have a bit more of a wintery flavour.
0:01:11 > 0:01:13A mix of rain, sleet and snow.
0:01:13 > 0:01:16There will be an organised band of showery rain just
0:01:16 > 0:01:20drifting its way steadily south and east through Wednesday.
0:01:20 > 0:01:23Behind, a trail of showers turning increasingly wintery.
0:01:23 > 0:01:25A colder feel when you add on the strength of the wind.
0:01:25 > 0:01:28Highs of 5 to 9 degrees.
0:01:28 > 0:01:31As we move into Thursday, we continue with this northerly flow.
0:01:31 > 0:01:33So it's going to be another cold feel to the day,
0:01:33 > 0:01:38with a weather front knocking on the door for the end of Thursday.
0:01:38 > 0:01:41What all that means is that, yes, it's still a cold wind direction.
0:01:41 > 0:01:43There's going to be a lot of cloud around.
0:01:43 > 0:01:47In spite a dry story, it will feel a little more disappointing.
0:01:47 > 0:01:49Highs of 4 to 9 degrees.
0:01:49 > 0:01:52By the end of the day, some rain pushing in to the west.
0:01:52 > 0:01:54Now, this could turn a little tricky, because as that weather
0:01:54 > 0:01:58front continues to push in across the cold air on the leading edge,
0:01:58 > 0:02:00for a time, there could be some snow.
0:02:00 > 0:02:03Chiefly to higher ground, but we'll need to keep a close eye
0:02:03 > 0:02:07on that one as that wintery flavour is set to continue into Friday.
0:02:07 > 0:02:10To the far north, it should stay bright and crisp.
0:02:10 > 0:02:12We've got that rain and snow to the higher ground
0:02:12 > 0:02:16and then behind showers trailing in -
0:02:16 > 0:02:194 to 8 degrees the overall high.
0:02:19 > 0:02:22As we move out of Friday towards the weekend,
0:02:22 > 0:02:25we start to see an amplification in the jet stream.
0:02:25 > 0:02:26By that, I mean this skipping rope
0:02:26 > 0:02:27effect as it starts to
0:02:27 > 0:02:29undulate across the country
0:02:29 > 0:02:31and it sits to the south of the UK.
0:02:31 > 0:02:33What that means to us is that
0:02:33 > 0:02:37when the jet stream dips down to the south, we drag in this cold air.
0:02:37 > 0:02:40So there is little change in the weather story
0:02:40 > 0:02:43as we move into the eight to ten day period,
0:02:43 > 0:02:47which basically means it stays cold for the beginning of March.
0:02:47 > 0:02:50Yes, we've got this cold air flooding across the country.
0:02:50 > 0:02:53The one thing with this amplification is that
0:02:53 > 0:02:58computer models struggle to get the detail correct in the weather story.
0:02:58 > 0:02:59At the moment,
0:02:59 > 0:03:02it does look as though towards the end of the weekend, we are
0:03:02 > 0:03:04likely to see high pressure building from the west, which means the
0:03:04 > 0:03:08quietest of the weather is always likely to be out towards the west.
0:03:08 > 0:03:11We still drag in this colder, northerly wind
0:03:11 > 0:03:14and any showers along North Sea coasts could be wintery in nature.
0:03:14 > 0:03:16So, for the longer-term period,
0:03:16 > 0:03:19it does look as though March will look somewhat like this -
0:03:19 > 0:03:22cold, frosty mornings, freezing fog could be an issue as well.
0:03:22 > 0:03:24Any showers we get could be wintery in nature.
0:03:24 > 0:03:27So those poor old spring daffodils may be shivering for the first
0:03:27 > 0:03:29week of March.
0:03:29 > 0:03:31More from me tomorrow.