0:00:03 > 0:00:06Yesterday, we were talking about the provisional March statistics
0:00:06 > 0:00:08and how, overall, the month was pretty average.
0:00:08 > 0:00:11But there were some significant regional variations,
0:00:11 > 0:00:12and this is another example.
0:00:12 > 0:00:16This is the rainfall through the month of March 2016,
0:00:16 > 0:00:19showing that, actually, across Scotland and Northern Ireland,
0:00:19 > 0:00:20it was a pretty dry month.
0:00:20 > 0:00:22The brown colours where it's drier than average,
0:00:22 > 0:00:25the blue where it's been wetter than average.
0:00:25 > 0:00:28Wales was about average, but across England, particularly in the east,
0:00:28 > 0:00:30it was significantly wetter than average.
0:00:30 > 0:00:33Quite interesting, because eastern England was one of the places
0:00:33 > 0:00:35where the winter as a whole was quite dry.
0:00:35 > 0:00:38And it's also quite interesting because the first day of April
0:00:38 > 0:00:40is providing pretty much the polar opposite,
0:00:40 > 0:00:43with the wettest conditions across Scotland and Northern Ireland
0:00:43 > 0:00:46and it should, by and large, be a dry day across England and Wales,
0:00:46 > 0:00:49although some rain will trickle into the north-west later on.
0:00:49 > 0:00:52Temperature-wise, where it's wet and windy, just 8 or 9 Celsius.
0:00:52 > 0:00:55Where the sun shines longest, across the south-east, 13 or 14.
0:00:55 > 0:00:57The Moray Firth may stay dry,
0:00:57 > 0:01:00and with some brightness here, we could get to 12 or 13 degrees.
0:01:00 > 0:01:03The rain will continue to trickle across parts of England and Wales
0:01:03 > 0:01:05for a time on Friday night.
0:01:05 > 0:01:09But how far south it gets is open to doubt a little bit.
0:01:09 > 0:01:11This weather front is going to grind to a halt
0:01:11 > 0:01:15before starting to pivot back further north on Saturday
0:01:15 > 0:01:18as low pressure approaches from the south-west.
0:01:18 > 0:01:20When we get these wiggling, waving weather fronts,
0:01:20 > 0:01:22there's always some uncertainty about where they lie.
0:01:22 > 0:01:24But what we are confident about
0:01:24 > 0:01:26is that as low pressure dominates to the west of the UK,
0:01:26 > 0:01:29it will draw up the winds from the south-east,
0:01:29 > 0:01:31so it will be turning milder.
0:01:31 > 0:01:33For some, it will still be soggy on Saturday
0:01:33 > 0:01:35where that weather front's sitting,
0:01:35 > 0:01:37probably across northern England, North Wales to start with,
0:01:37 > 0:01:40into southern Scotland and Northern Ireland by the end of the day.
0:01:40 > 0:01:43Further north, generally dry and bright, but still cool.
0:01:43 > 0:01:45Further south, it's starting to warm up,
0:01:45 > 0:01:48the temperatures more widely in the teens. As it warms up,
0:01:48 > 0:01:50there is the risk of some systems coming up from the south,
0:01:50 > 0:01:52bringing some heavy, potentially thundery rain.
0:01:52 > 0:01:55A lot of uncertainty about the position and intensity
0:01:55 > 0:01:57of any storms on Saturday night,
0:01:57 > 0:01:59and there could still be some around,
0:01:59 > 0:02:01particularly across parts of Scotland, on Sunday.
0:02:01 > 0:02:03A few showers developing through the day,
0:02:03 > 0:02:07but for many, it'll be drier across central areas, and warmer, too.
0:02:07 > 0:02:08We could get to 17 degrees,
0:02:08 > 0:02:11maybe 18 if the sun comes out across the south-east.
0:02:11 > 0:02:13Low pressure is still dominating
0:02:13 > 0:02:15into the early part of the new working week.
0:02:15 > 0:02:18Where this weather front lies, again, open to a lot of uncertainty.
0:02:18 > 0:02:21But it does look as if there could still be a fair bit of rain around,
0:02:21 > 0:02:23but it is a warm front
0:02:23 > 0:02:26so, again, relatively warm air coming up across the south.
0:02:26 > 0:02:29Could see temperatures climbing into the high teens.
0:02:29 > 0:02:32And still on Tuesday, it's a messy picture,
0:02:32 > 0:02:35with low-pressure systems nearby, so showers never too far away.
0:02:35 > 0:02:38But the air still, at this stage, mostly coming up from the south
0:02:38 > 0:02:40and bringing some warmer conditions.
0:02:40 > 0:02:43However, as we go through the middle part of next the week,
0:02:43 > 0:02:45we are expecting more of an Atlantic influence.
0:02:45 > 0:02:49The low-pressure systems starting to come in from the north-west,
0:02:49 > 0:02:52so the surface winds will be more westerly,
0:02:52 > 0:02:53bringing in the Atlantic air.
0:02:53 > 0:02:57And what's driving that is the winds high up in the atmosphere.
0:02:57 > 0:03:00A change in the jet stream, coming more in from the Atlantic,
0:03:00 > 0:03:02bringing low-pressure systems
0:03:02 > 0:03:04through the latter half of next week.
0:03:04 > 0:03:07There is a lot of uncertainty, though,
0:03:07 > 0:03:09about how this starts to come about
0:03:09 > 0:03:11and how quickly we start to see this change
0:03:11 > 0:03:15from the southerly winds bringing the warmer weather
0:03:15 > 0:03:16to the westerly winds.
0:03:16 > 0:03:18Eventually, the westerly winds will return,
0:03:18 > 0:03:20meaning the days will turn a little cooler.
0:03:20 > 0:03:22There will always be some showers around
0:03:22 > 0:03:24when the weather's coming in from the Atlantic,
0:03:24 > 0:03:26but the nights will also be a lot milder
0:03:26 > 0:03:29than the past couple of frosty ones.