0:00:02 > 0:00:05Maybe it's just me, but the weather patterns
0:00:05 > 0:00:06do seem do get rather more complicated as
0:00:06 > 0:00:10a bank holiday weekend approaches, and this one is no different.
0:00:10 > 0:00:12There will be a lot of fine weather around through this weekend
0:00:12 > 0:00:14and when the sun's out, it'll feel warm,
0:00:14 > 0:00:17but there will be heavy, potentially thundery, showers,
0:00:17 > 0:00:19and Monday - oh, Monday - that is really giving us
0:00:19 > 0:00:22some headaches at the moment, as we'll see in just a moment.
0:00:22 > 0:00:24First of all, we've got to get through Friday -
0:00:24 > 0:00:26staying quite grey in parts of the east,
0:00:26 > 0:00:27damp and drizzly for a time
0:00:27 > 0:00:29through the central belt.
0:00:29 > 0:00:30Sunshine elsewhere, and the potential
0:00:30 > 0:00:32for heavy, thundery, quite vicious storms
0:00:32 > 0:00:34across parts of Wales and south-west England
0:00:34 > 0:00:36but they'll be well scattered -
0:00:36 > 0:00:38many places dry and bright,
0:00:38 > 0:00:39bit of sunshine, feeling warm.
0:00:39 > 0:00:41Sunny spells, too, across northern Scotland,
0:00:41 > 0:00:44but distinctly cooler on some North Sea coasts,
0:00:44 > 0:00:45where it stays rather grey.
0:00:45 > 0:00:47Now, those thundery showers may take
0:00:47 > 0:00:48a while to fade away
0:00:48 > 0:00:50during the course of Friday night
0:00:50 > 0:00:52and there's potential, actually,
0:00:52 > 0:00:54early Saturday morning, to see further storms
0:00:54 > 0:00:55heading up across the south,
0:00:55 > 0:00:57warm and humid, here,
0:00:57 > 0:00:58a little bit cooler, elsewhere.
0:00:58 > 0:01:00Temperatures in northern Scotland, again,
0:01:00 > 0:01:01well down into single figures.
0:01:01 > 0:01:03Into the long weekend,
0:01:03 > 0:01:04and again, it could be quite grey on
0:01:04 > 0:01:06some of these North Sea coasts during Saturday,
0:01:06 > 0:01:09and again, the potential for further thunderstorms,
0:01:09 > 0:01:11across the south, generally, particularly in the afternoon,
0:01:11 > 0:01:13over Wales and south-west England,
0:01:13 > 0:01:15where it'll be quite warm and humid,
0:01:15 > 0:01:17we could reach 21 Celsius.
0:01:17 > 0:01:18Many places, though, will be dry and bright,
0:01:18 > 0:01:20a bit of sunshine -
0:01:20 > 0:01:22we'll see temperatures into the mid to high teens.
0:01:22 > 0:01:24On Sunday, the greatest risk of heavy,
0:01:24 > 0:01:27possibly thundery, showers is across the far north-west,
0:01:27 > 0:01:29but there is some rain not far away
0:01:29 > 0:01:31in the near continent and that, as I said,
0:01:31 > 0:01:33is the start of the big question marks,
0:01:33 > 0:01:35as we go into Monday.
0:01:35 > 0:01:36We've got an area of low pressure,
0:01:36 > 0:01:38but it's approaching from the east
0:01:38 > 0:01:40and that is one of the major complications,
0:01:40 > 0:01:42because usually, our low pressure systems
0:01:42 > 0:01:43come in from the west,
0:01:43 > 0:01:45and the big question mark,
0:01:45 > 0:01:47how far in will that low come?
0:01:47 > 0:01:48This was the set-up yesterday -
0:01:48 > 0:01:50we were expecting the low
0:01:50 > 0:01:51to mostly stay away,
0:01:51 > 0:01:53a bit of rain maybe grazing the east coast.
0:01:53 > 0:01:55Now, most of the computer models
0:01:55 > 0:01:56are taking that low
0:01:56 > 0:01:57a bit further inland,
0:01:57 > 0:01:59and the most likely scenario at the moment
0:01:59 > 0:02:01is that many eastern areas will
0:02:01 > 0:02:02have a wet day on Monday,
0:02:02 > 0:02:03but the west could stay dry.
0:02:03 > 0:02:06I say "could", because there's another scenario
0:02:06 > 0:02:08where the low pressure drifts right across the UK
0:02:08 > 0:02:11and most of us have a bit of a soggy one on Monday.
0:02:11 > 0:02:13But this is the most likely scenario at the moment,
0:02:13 > 0:02:16with eastern parts of England in particular looking wet.
0:02:16 > 0:02:18There will be a brisk and cold wind as well
0:02:18 > 0:02:20and temperatures really struggle,
0:02:20 > 0:02:21whereas many parts of the west
0:02:21 > 0:02:23could have a fine day on Monday.
0:02:23 > 0:02:25The question marks arising from this low pressure
0:02:25 > 0:02:27because it's coming in from the east,
0:02:27 > 0:02:29as I mentioned earlier.
0:02:29 > 0:02:30If you think about a scenario
0:02:30 > 0:02:33where you're throwing a paper ball into a bin,
0:02:33 > 0:02:35if you do it with your stronger hand,
0:02:35 > 0:02:36you may get it in the bin eight
0:02:36 > 0:02:38or nine times out of ten,
0:02:38 > 0:02:40but then switch to your weaker hand,
0:02:40 > 0:02:43then you may only get that bit of paper in the bin
0:02:43 > 0:02:45four or five times out of ten.
0:02:45 > 0:02:47That's what the computer models struggle with,
0:02:47 > 0:02:48because it's coming in
0:02:48 > 0:02:50from the east, not the west.
0:02:50 > 0:02:52That's why there's so much uncertainty.
0:02:52 > 0:02:54By Tuesday, we pretty much
0:02:54 > 0:02:55end up with low pressure across the UK,
0:02:55 > 0:02:58so most places, cloudy with outbreaks of rain.
0:02:58 > 0:02:59The north-west may be favoured
0:02:59 > 0:03:00for staying dry and bright
0:03:00 > 0:03:02and then we go into next week.
0:03:02 > 0:03:04Now, with uncertainty in the shorter term,
0:03:04 > 0:03:06looking even further ahead,
0:03:06 > 0:03:08there will be uncertainty again,
0:03:08 > 0:03:09but it does look as if the low
0:03:09 > 0:03:11will hang around for the first part of next week,
0:03:11 > 0:03:14but high pressure tries to build in
0:03:14 > 0:03:17later next week, which may start to dry things up.
0:03:17 > 0:03:19It always looks pretty cool next week,
0:03:19 > 0:03:20no signs of anything really hot.
0:03:20 > 0:03:22It should steadily dry up
0:03:22 > 0:03:24and with the high pressure closest to the north,
0:03:24 > 0:03:26that's where we may well find the brightest weather
0:03:26 > 0:03:28for the second half of next week.
0:03:28 > 0:03:29Stay tuned to the forecast.
0:03:32 > 0:03:32WIND WHISTLES
0:03:32 > 0:03:34'I've had a most rare vision.'