0:00:03 > 0:00:05A week is a long time not just in politics,
0:00:05 > 0:00:07but in weather forecasting sometimes,
0:00:07 > 0:00:10and the indications for the end of this week have changed somewhat
0:00:10 > 0:00:12compared with, say, 24 hours ago.
0:00:12 > 0:00:13More of that in a moment.
0:00:13 > 0:00:16Currently, we have winds coming in off the Atlantic,
0:00:16 > 0:00:17carrying these lumps of cloud.
0:00:17 > 0:00:20It's a fairly cool and showery set-up at the moment.
0:00:20 > 0:00:23We saw some heavy downpours during the course of Monday
0:00:23 > 0:00:26and some vivid skies as well, just like this one taken from Normanton.
0:00:26 > 0:00:30I'd expect further cloudscapes just like this over the next few days
0:00:30 > 0:00:32with that mixture of sunshine and showers continuing.
0:00:32 > 0:00:34First thing, most of the showers
0:00:34 > 0:00:36will be across the more western parts of England and Wales.
0:00:36 > 0:00:39They'll be tracking their way further eastwards
0:00:39 > 0:00:40during the course of the day.
0:00:40 > 0:00:42Some heavy ones developing, as we'll see in a moment.
0:00:42 > 0:00:45Whereas further north and west across the country,
0:00:45 > 0:00:47relatively few showers for Northern Ireland and Scotland.
0:00:47 > 0:00:49A reasonable afternoon to come.
0:00:49 > 0:00:51The odd shower around, but plenty of sunshine.
0:00:51 > 0:00:54Not spectacularly warm by any stretch of the imagination.
0:00:54 > 0:00:5616 or 17 degrees. But in the sunshine, it shouldn't feel too bad.
0:00:56 > 0:00:59The sun pretty strong at this time of year.
0:00:59 > 0:01:01After a showery start to the day across parts of Wales
0:01:01 > 0:01:03and western England, increasing amounts of sunshine here,
0:01:03 > 0:01:05particularly towards the west coast.
0:01:05 > 0:01:07Across the Midlands, East Anglia, and the south-east,
0:01:07 > 0:01:10it'll turn increasingly showery through the afternoon.
0:01:10 > 0:01:13Some heavy, slow-moving thundery downpours. Watch out for those.
0:01:13 > 0:01:16They'll linger on into the night across some south-eastern areas
0:01:16 > 0:01:17before they gradually fade away
0:01:17 > 0:01:19through the early hours of Wednesday.
0:01:19 > 0:01:21Still the odd one left behind at dawn.
0:01:21 > 0:01:24It'll be a fresh start to the day on Wednesday, quite cool.
0:01:24 > 0:01:27But the sun will allow those temperatures to bounce back.
0:01:27 > 0:01:30Another hit and miss day of sunshine and showers.
0:01:30 > 0:01:32No two days exactly the same.
0:01:32 > 0:01:34The distribution of those showers will differ.
0:01:34 > 0:01:35It won't be all that warm.
0:01:35 > 0:01:38And certainly overnight through the week ahead,
0:01:38 > 0:01:40temperatures will be well down into single figures.
0:01:40 > 0:01:44But with some sunshine, shouldn't feel too bad by day.
0:01:44 > 0:01:46And I've got my hopes pinned on Thursday
0:01:46 > 0:01:49as being probably one of the best days of the week,
0:01:49 > 0:01:52as this little ridge of high pressure builds in from the west.
0:01:52 > 0:01:56That'll tend to kill off most of the showers. So a largely dry day.
0:01:56 > 0:01:59I'm not ruling out the odd shower, but most places will be dry.
0:01:59 > 0:02:02And with light winds and some sunshine, shouldn't feel too bad.
0:02:02 > 0:02:04The plan was for that ridge of high pressure
0:02:04 > 0:02:06to build in across the country
0:02:06 > 0:02:08and bring a drier, warmer end to the week.
0:02:08 > 0:02:10It's not looking so straightforward now.
0:02:10 > 0:02:13Further fronts pushing in across the more northern
0:02:13 > 0:02:15and western areas in particular on Friday,
0:02:15 > 0:02:17bringing some outbreaks of rain.
0:02:17 > 0:02:18Some fairly muggy air, too.
0:02:18 > 0:02:22The jet stream looks as if it's going to start to head its way
0:02:22 > 0:02:25back down across the country as we end of the week.
0:02:25 > 0:02:28And that does mean a significant change in the story
0:02:28 > 0:02:30compared with what Tom was saying, for example, yesterday.
0:02:30 > 0:02:34It's going to start to steer the fronts further south and east
0:02:34 > 0:02:35across the country.
0:02:35 > 0:02:38This front, we think, as we end the week, will be quite significant.
0:02:38 > 0:02:41Ahead of that, some reasonably warm air.
0:02:41 > 0:02:42Behind that, cooler conditions,
0:02:42 > 0:02:45and along that frontal zone, some outbreaks of rain.
0:02:45 > 0:02:48So, don't take this chart too literally.
0:02:48 > 0:02:51The exact distribution of the rain and the timing
0:02:51 > 0:02:53could well change again.
0:02:53 > 0:02:55But rain heading in towards the more southern and eastern areas
0:02:55 > 0:02:58as we go into Saturday, displacing that mild air,
0:02:58 > 0:03:01and something a bit fresher following on behind.
0:03:01 > 0:03:03Big question marks, then, through this weekend.
0:03:03 > 0:03:05It does look as if that front will clear through.
0:03:05 > 0:03:08Perhaps another set of fronts pushing in off the Atlantic
0:03:08 > 0:03:10to the more northern and western parts of the UK
0:03:10 > 0:03:11during the course of Sunday.
0:03:11 > 0:03:14But watch this, because the story could change again.
0:03:14 > 0:03:17And we're going to keep a very close eye on things.
0:03:17 > 0:03:18Through the early part of next week,
0:03:18 > 0:03:21it does look as if north-western areas will see most of the rain.
0:03:21 > 0:03:24Driest across the south-east. Breezy at times.
0:03:24 > 0:03:29But the heat does look like to be staying on hold for the time being.
0:03:29 > 0:03:30I'll update you again tomorrow.