0:00:03 > 0:00:06It's mid-July, and we may at last this summer,
0:00:06 > 0:00:07in the next six to ten days,
0:00:07 > 0:00:10see temperatures nudging towards 30 degrees Celsius.
0:00:10 > 0:00:12Let's take a look at what's happening
0:00:12 > 0:00:13at the weekend first of all,
0:00:13 > 0:00:16where we've got a weather front dividing the humid air to the south,
0:00:16 > 0:00:19and the Azores High keeping things relatively settled,
0:00:19 > 0:00:22with the Atlantic westerly winds and showers to the north.
0:00:22 > 0:00:24Where that front grinds to a halt on Saturday,
0:00:24 > 0:00:27and we think northern England, North Wales,
0:00:27 > 0:00:29through parts of north-east England as well,
0:00:29 > 0:00:30it could be a pretty wet day.
0:00:30 > 0:00:33To the north of it, showers and a brisk wind.
0:00:33 > 0:00:35To the south of it, some humid air.
0:00:35 > 0:00:37Certainly looks drier for the golf up in Troon
0:00:37 > 0:00:39during the day on Saturday.
0:00:39 > 0:00:41Maybe a shower, but it'll be quite blustery.
0:00:41 > 0:00:44A fairly moderate to fresh breeze blowing here.
0:00:44 > 0:00:46And you can see there are some showers around
0:00:46 > 0:00:47for northern and western Scotland,
0:00:47 > 0:00:49particularly the Highlands and Islands,
0:00:49 > 0:00:52but it won't be as wet as it has been during the day on Friday.
0:00:52 > 0:00:54A few showers coming and going across Northern Ireland,
0:00:54 > 0:00:57but some sunshine here, too, and for the north of England.
0:00:57 > 0:00:59However, for the far south of northern England,
0:00:59 > 0:01:01across towards Lincolnshire, North Wales,
0:01:01 > 0:01:04we think that area could be quite wet for much of the day.
0:01:04 > 0:01:06And where the cloud breaks to the south,
0:01:06 > 0:01:08through the Midlands and East Anglia,
0:01:08 > 0:01:10we could have an isolated thunderstorm.
0:01:10 > 0:01:12And further south again, well, some warmth around,
0:01:12 > 0:01:14so it does look largely dry for the first Test
0:01:14 > 0:01:16as that continues at Lord's.
0:01:16 > 0:01:18Although there will be quite a bit of cloud,
0:01:18 > 0:01:19especially early in the day,
0:01:19 > 0:01:21and later in the day, as that weather front
0:01:21 > 0:01:24starts to push its away, at last, further southwards,
0:01:24 > 0:01:25and introduces more cloud,
0:01:25 > 0:01:27still that muggy feel towards the south.
0:01:27 > 0:01:30Further north, we've got increasing amounts of cloud
0:01:30 > 0:01:32on another weather front coming in to the north and the west.
0:01:32 > 0:01:34But in between, it looks drier on Sunday
0:01:34 > 0:01:37for some parts of northern England, North Wales.
0:01:37 > 0:01:39We'll see temperatures in this zone creeping up,
0:01:39 > 0:01:41so a drier second half of the weekend.
0:01:41 > 0:01:43And we'll still realise temperatures
0:01:43 > 0:01:45into the mid- to high teens further north.
0:01:45 > 0:01:48Into Monday. The remnants of that front is in the south,
0:01:48 > 0:01:51and what we'll find is the warm air starts to push back northwards.
0:01:51 > 0:01:53A lot of dry weather with it
0:01:53 > 0:01:56away from western Scotland and Northern Ireland.
0:01:56 > 0:01:59So for mostly England and Wales, it looks increasingly warm
0:01:59 > 0:02:02and increasingly sunny through Monday and Tuesday.
0:02:02 > 0:02:04We're starting to draw in some continental air.
0:02:04 > 0:02:06So more sunshine than we've seen recently.
0:02:06 > 0:02:09Still the risk of that rain further north.
0:02:09 > 0:02:11But you can see that sunshine and the warmth
0:02:11 > 0:02:13getting at least towards southern Scotland.
0:02:13 > 0:02:15Wednesday at the moment looks like we might see
0:02:15 > 0:02:17a breakdown in that heat
0:02:17 > 0:02:20as we start to import the characteristics, if you like,
0:02:20 > 0:02:22of that hot air, that tropical air.
0:02:22 > 0:02:26So why are we seeing this happening through the early part of the week?
0:02:26 > 0:02:29Well, it looks as if the Azores High will visit us for a couple of days
0:02:29 > 0:02:31across the southern half of the country.
0:02:31 > 0:02:33It's more likely, as you saw,
0:02:33 > 0:02:34that we'll keep the refresher Atlantic air
0:02:34 > 0:02:37and the risk of showery rain or longer spells of rain
0:02:37 > 0:02:39for parts of Northern Ireland and Scotland.
0:02:39 > 0:02:41Then from midweek onwards, the chances are,
0:02:41 > 0:02:43that will move out of the way
0:02:43 > 0:02:45and we'll scoop up some of that thundery air
0:02:45 > 0:02:47that I talked about, and eventually,
0:02:47 > 0:02:49that heat will break down and build some thunderstorms.
0:02:49 > 0:02:52And that's because we're importing, as I mentioned,
0:02:52 > 0:02:54some tropical air, coming across the continent,
0:02:54 > 0:02:56so for the first couple of days,
0:02:56 > 0:02:58it's just establishing itself across the UK.
0:02:58 > 0:03:01And we think somewhere around the middle part of the week,
0:03:01 > 0:03:03that's when we'll start to see the thundery breakdown.
0:03:03 > 0:03:06Which is often the case here in the UK.
0:03:06 > 0:03:08It could be a little later, it could be earlier,
0:03:08 > 0:03:10but it does look as if we're in for a mostly dry
0:03:10 > 0:03:11and warm start to the week,
0:03:11 > 0:03:14especially across the southern half of the country,
0:03:14 > 0:03:16with that risk of thunder, we think, midweek on,
0:03:16 > 0:03:19and then after, probably something fresher moving in off the Atlantic.
0:03:19 > 0:03:21It's one that we're watching
0:03:21 > 0:03:23and we'll firm up on the day-to-day details as we go along.
0:03:23 > 0:03:25There's more on the website.