10/08/2016

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0:00:04 > 0:00:07Hello there, from a touch of frost to oppressive heat,

0:00:07 > 0:00:09via some heavy rain and some pleasant sunshine, it's all in

0:00:09 > 0:00:12this forecast, so stay tuned over the next three and a half minutes.

0:00:12 > 0:00:15Certainly, a coolish feel to things first thing on Wednesday,

0:00:15 > 0:00:18yes, a touch of frost in one or two Scottish glens,

0:00:18 > 0:00:20pretty unusual for the time of the year,

0:00:20 > 0:00:23and we've got these fronts pushing in off the Atlantic and they are

0:00:23 > 0:00:26going to cloud things up with time after a bright start for many.

0:00:26 > 0:00:28One of two showers across eastern counties,

0:00:28 > 0:00:30but the main event is further west,

0:00:30 > 0:00:33damp and dreary across Northern Ireland and this damp weather

0:00:33 > 0:00:36will then extend its way eastwards into western parts of Scotland.

0:00:36 > 0:00:39A bit of brightness holding on across easternmost areas.

0:00:39 > 0:00:42But under the cloud cover, it will feel disappointingly cool,

0:00:42 > 0:00:44temperatures in many of these western areas stuck in the

0:00:44 > 0:00:47mid-teens at best. This is mid-afternoon.

0:00:47 > 0:00:50The cloud spreading across England and Wales,

0:00:50 > 0:00:53some of that dampness turning up towards the western coast but

0:00:53 > 0:00:56further east it should be mostly dry bar the odd shower

0:00:56 > 0:00:59and some brightness holding on across the south-east, here the

0:00:59 > 0:01:02best of the temperatures nudging 20 degrees in one or two places.

0:01:02 > 0:01:05Now, the fronts continue to move eastwards overnight

0:01:05 > 0:01:09and it does mean a rather damp start here, actually, on Thursday.

0:01:09 > 0:01:13I think the rain will tend to ease off, so most of us improving

0:01:13 > 0:01:16but I'm afraid across the north-west of Scotland it keeps on raining,

0:01:16 > 0:01:19some persistent and heavy rain here.

0:01:19 > 0:01:22Some warm sunshine developing, though, further south on Thursday.

0:01:22 > 0:01:24But I'm going to concentrate on the far north-west,

0:01:24 > 0:01:27because here we are going to see some heavy and persistent

0:01:27 > 0:01:29rain through Thursday and perhaps into Friday, some places

0:01:29 > 0:01:33seeing 100mm or more across the north-west Highlands.

0:01:33 > 0:01:36And it's still raining here on Friday morning.

0:01:36 > 0:01:39And a very strong wind too. A day of contrasts,

0:01:39 > 0:01:41because down across the south and east of the country it will

0:01:41 > 0:01:44feel very pleasant, with temperatures up into the mid-20s.

0:01:44 > 0:01:47It would be quite as warm as that as we start the weekend,

0:01:47 > 0:01:50because this front, this cold front will edge its way southwards.

0:01:50 > 0:01:53Not much rain on it, the front dying a death,

0:01:53 > 0:01:56it's getting squashed out by high pressure.

0:01:56 > 0:01:58But a band of cloud and the odd shower perhaps for a time.

0:01:58 > 0:02:02Behind that, brighter skies, a better day for the west of Scotland,

0:02:02 > 0:02:03though there will be the odd shower,

0:02:03 > 0:02:07quite a fresh field here, quite warm and muggy across the south.

0:02:07 > 0:02:10Now, the cloud will break up on Sunday, so even here we will

0:02:10 > 0:02:14see some sunshine. For most it's going to be a feel-good sort of day.

0:02:14 > 0:02:18High teens, low 20s across the board, with fairly light winds.

0:02:18 > 0:02:21To sum up this weekend, looking good if you've got outdoor plans,

0:02:21 > 0:02:23some sunshine, most of us

0:02:23 > 0:02:26will stay dry and it will feel pleasantly warm,

0:02:26 > 0:02:29not too warm for most of us through this weekend.

0:02:29 > 0:02:31That could change.

0:02:31 > 0:02:34Our computer models are gaining some kind of consensus here.

0:02:34 > 0:02:37Most of them are indicating that temperatures will be on the rise

0:02:37 > 0:02:39through the early part of next week,

0:02:39 > 0:02:43just how hot it gets is still open to some question.

0:02:43 > 0:02:46But the message is, we are going to see much, much warmer weather

0:02:46 > 0:02:50coming up from the south, actually, during the early part of next week.

0:02:50 > 0:02:54Here come those hot winds, exactly how hot it gets, as I say,

0:02:54 > 0:02:57still open to some question but potentially most computer models

0:02:57 > 0:03:01do indicate that around 30 degrees is possible.

0:03:01 > 0:03:03It's going to turn quite warm, quite muggy as well,

0:03:03 > 0:03:06that combination of heat and humidity

0:03:06 > 0:03:08will start to spark some thunderstorms initially

0:03:08 > 0:03:10coming in from the south-west.

0:03:10 > 0:03:13Now, the question is, how long does the heat last?

0:03:13 > 0:03:16And again, most computer models indicate that it's not going to

0:03:16 > 0:03:19last long, it starts to cool again as that thundery breakdown comes in

0:03:19 > 0:03:22from the south-west later on in the week.

0:03:22 > 0:03:25So to sum up next week, heat and humidity, then a thundery breakdown

0:03:25 > 0:03:28around about the middle of the week, before it turns fresher again later.

0:03:28 > 0:03:30I'll update you again tomorrow.