0:00:03 > 0:00:05Hello. We may live on a relatively small group of islands,
0:00:05 > 0:00:07but the weather we experience often originates
0:00:07 > 0:00:08well beyond our shores,
0:00:08 > 0:00:10which is why I'm showing you this picture
0:00:10 > 0:00:12from onshore flooding
0:00:12 > 0:00:14at Cabo San Lucas in Mexico
0:00:14 > 0:00:16as the hurricane has just made landfall,
0:00:16 > 0:00:17Hurricane Newton.
0:00:17 > 0:00:19What that almost 6,000 miles away
0:00:19 > 0:00:21has got to do with our weather next week,
0:00:21 > 0:00:23well, I'm about to reveal.
0:00:23 > 0:00:24First of all, though,
0:00:24 > 0:00:25to our weather in the here and now.
0:00:25 > 0:00:27Wednesday beginning with low pressure
0:00:27 > 0:00:28to the west of us,
0:00:28 > 0:00:29high pressure to the east of us,
0:00:29 > 0:00:31a flow of air from the south.
0:00:31 > 0:00:33A little change in orientation of that flow
0:00:33 > 0:00:35eventually bringing some drier and clearer weather
0:00:35 > 0:00:37our way from the south during Wednesday,
0:00:37 > 0:00:40which means, particularly across the Channel Islands,
0:00:40 > 0:00:41southern England and south Wales,
0:00:41 > 0:00:43more in the way of sunshine
0:00:43 > 0:00:45compared with Tuesday by the end of the day.
0:00:45 > 0:00:47Elsewhere, variable cloud, some sunny spells.
0:00:47 > 0:00:48Cloud or sunshine,
0:00:48 > 0:00:50it is warm and humid once again.
0:00:50 > 0:00:52But by Thursday, this weather front,
0:00:52 > 0:00:54changing the flow from a southerly
0:00:54 > 0:00:55to a south-westerly,
0:00:55 > 0:00:58introduces fresher Atlantic weather our way.
0:00:58 > 0:01:00Now, on it, an early splash of rain for northern England
0:01:00 > 0:01:02and Scotland behind the diffused showers
0:01:02 > 0:01:03with that fresher air.
0:01:03 > 0:01:05A bit warm with East Anglia and the south-east,
0:01:05 > 0:01:08but all of us getting into some fresher conditions,
0:01:08 > 0:01:10making it easier for sleeping, too.
0:01:10 > 0:01:13Now, going into Friday, we do have another weather system
0:01:13 > 0:01:15coming our way - a weak one, initially,
0:01:15 > 0:01:17a stronger one later in the day.
0:01:17 > 0:01:18Still some good sunny spells around,
0:01:18 > 0:01:20a few showers developing that could be heavy,
0:01:20 > 0:01:23but then heavier rain coming into Northern Ireland
0:01:23 > 0:01:25with strengthening winds as the day goes on
0:01:25 > 0:01:27and that heavier rain sweeping eastwards
0:01:27 > 0:01:30during Friday night and into Saturday.
0:01:30 > 0:01:32Now, still some uncertainty about how quickly
0:01:32 > 0:01:33that's going to clear away
0:01:33 > 0:01:36from eastern parts of England on Saturday morning,
0:01:36 > 0:01:38but it could be a few hours of still relatively heavy rain
0:01:38 > 0:01:41to come here before sunshine and showers follow on behind
0:01:41 > 0:01:44and again an even slightly fresher, by this stage, flow
0:01:44 > 0:01:45coming in from the west
0:01:45 > 0:01:47so temperatures come down a few degrees.
0:01:47 > 0:01:49For part two of the weekend on Sunday,
0:01:49 > 0:01:50after a ridge of high pressure,
0:01:50 > 0:01:52we see another weather system
0:01:52 > 0:01:53coming in from the Atlantic.
0:01:53 > 0:01:55So what we're seeing with the weather system
0:01:55 > 0:01:57on Friday night and this one on Sunday
0:01:57 > 0:01:59is the potential for some heavier rain
0:01:59 > 0:02:02and stronger winds associated with them.
0:02:02 > 0:02:03One of the reasons for that, well,
0:02:03 > 0:02:05we're back with that hurricane
0:02:05 > 0:02:07that's just made landfall in Mexico
0:02:07 > 0:02:08and here's how it looks
0:02:08 > 0:02:09on the satellite picture.
0:02:09 > 0:02:10It's not just this -
0:02:10 > 0:02:12remember Hermine that went through Florida?
0:02:12 > 0:02:15What's left of that fairly ragged area of cloud
0:02:15 > 0:02:17just sitting off the coast of New York.
0:02:17 > 0:02:20Both these systems are feeding tropical air
0:02:20 > 0:02:22northwards across North America
0:02:22 > 0:02:23into the mid latitudes -
0:02:23 > 0:02:25that's where we live -
0:02:25 > 0:02:26and one of the effects of that
0:02:26 > 0:02:27is felt high in the atmosphere
0:02:27 > 0:02:29with the jet stream.
0:02:29 > 0:02:30It thrives off the big temperature gradient
0:02:30 > 0:02:32between the colder air to the north of it
0:02:32 > 0:02:34and the warmer air to the south of it.
0:02:34 > 0:02:35This tropical air is warming the air
0:02:35 > 0:02:36to the south of it
0:02:36 > 0:02:39so there's a bigger temperature gradient.
0:02:39 > 0:02:40It's strengthening the jet stream
0:02:40 > 0:02:43coming out of North America across the Atlantic
0:02:43 > 0:02:45to us next week and that strengthens
0:02:45 > 0:02:47the weather systems carried on it.
0:02:47 > 0:02:49I'm not saying next week is going to be stormy,
0:02:49 > 0:02:51but catch one of these weather systems,
0:02:51 > 0:02:53they'll tend to pass to the north-west of the UK
0:02:53 > 0:02:55with some heavier rain and stronger winds.
0:02:55 > 0:02:56But there are gaps,
0:02:56 > 0:02:57there are peaks and troughs
0:02:57 > 0:02:58in this weather system
0:02:58 > 0:03:00so if you're in one of the gaps,
0:03:00 > 0:03:01you may see a surge of quite warm
0:03:01 > 0:03:03and fairly pleasant weather
0:03:03 > 0:03:04coming in from the south.
0:03:04 > 0:03:06All of that means is that next week
0:03:06 > 0:03:07is looking changeable.
0:03:07 > 0:03:09Temperatures will tend
0:03:09 > 0:03:10to be a bit above average.
0:03:10 > 0:03:12There will be some wet weather at times
0:03:12 > 0:03:14and stronger winds, mostly focused
0:03:14 > 0:03:16towards the north-west of the UK,
0:03:16 > 0:03:17occasionally further south,
0:03:17 > 0:03:19but relatively drier here
0:03:19 > 0:03:20and warmer in comparison.
0:03:20 > 0:03:22I have to say that tropical weather
0:03:22 > 0:03:24does add uncertainty to the forecast.
0:03:24 > 0:03:26The computer model struggled to deal with it
0:03:26 > 0:03:27so I'll show you the trends.
0:03:27 > 0:03:29Keep checking the day-to-day forecast
0:03:29 > 0:03:30for the latest.
0:03:31 > 0:03:33Everybody loves sitcom. I've watched a lot of telly,
0:03:33 > 0:03:36and I know them extremely well. I'm hoping to win.