0:00:02 > 0:00:05Hello. We may well now have entered the meteorological autumn
0:00:05 > 0:00:07but the weather has other ideas.
0:00:07 > 0:00:09It's certainly not following that way,
0:00:09 > 0:00:11because last week we had temperatures into the high 20s
0:00:11 > 0:00:13in the Channel Islands and the south-east,
0:00:13 > 0:00:15and this coming week, we're likely to see temperatures certainly
0:00:15 > 0:00:20into the high 20s for several days. We may reach 30 degrees once again.
0:00:20 > 0:00:24The reason - a southerly wind. The transition is already underway.
0:00:24 > 0:00:27We're watching this major Atlantic low coming into the north and west.
0:00:27 > 0:00:30As it does so, it's pulling in this southerly wind,
0:00:30 > 0:00:34so it looks in contrast, after a wet day for parts of England
0:00:34 > 0:00:37and Wales on Saturday, much brighter and drier.
0:00:37 > 0:00:38A chilly start, mind you,
0:00:38 > 0:00:41in contrast to what's coming ahead in the next few days.
0:00:41 > 0:00:43Even a bit of mistiness around as well.
0:00:43 > 0:00:45Then some fair-weather cloud, a rogue shower,
0:00:45 > 0:00:49but for most of us, dry, bright, and in southern and eastern areas,
0:00:49 > 0:00:52it'll feel warmer, but windier up towards the north and west.
0:00:52 > 0:00:54Gales coming in with this area of rain.
0:00:54 > 0:00:57So potential risk here, because there could be severe gales
0:00:57 > 0:00:59into the north-west approaches accompanying some fairly
0:00:59 > 0:01:02persistent rain through Sunday night and into Monday.
0:01:02 > 0:01:05So obviously here it won't be so warm and bright,
0:01:05 > 0:01:09and overnight, not so cold either and not as chilly a night either,
0:01:09 > 0:01:12as we start Monday morning, compared with Sunday morning.
0:01:12 > 0:01:15But that major Atlantic low pressure still with us in the north and west,
0:01:15 > 0:01:19so the contrast here between that and the southerly winds drawing in
0:01:19 > 0:01:22some sunshine, particularly to eastern areas on Monday.
0:01:22 > 0:01:24And it's in eastern areas, central and eastern areas, where we
0:01:24 > 0:01:27are likely to see those temperatures starting to get into the mid-20s.
0:01:27 > 0:01:30It'll be warm rain further north and west as well,
0:01:30 > 0:01:33but you can see quite clearly this weather front here
0:01:33 > 0:01:35is our dividing line between the Atlantic fresh air
0:01:35 > 0:01:39and this continental rather warm and increasingly humid air as well.
0:01:39 > 0:01:42So there's quite a lot of uncertainty as to how quickly
0:01:42 > 0:01:45this weather system is then going to push eastwards,
0:01:45 > 0:01:47and it really does drag its heels.
0:01:47 > 0:01:50It almost gets stuck across the western side of the UK
0:01:50 > 0:01:51for two or three days.
0:01:51 > 0:01:54So it really allows that southerly wind to establish itself,
0:01:54 > 0:01:56and as it does, obviously temperatures rise
0:01:56 > 0:02:00by both day and night, and the humidity starts to rise as well.
0:02:00 > 0:02:03So increasingly uncomfortable by night, I should imagine,
0:02:03 > 0:02:05for sleeping as that humidity starts to rise.
0:02:05 > 0:02:08And further west, always the potential growing for some
0:02:08 > 0:02:12really intense, thundery activity, and as you can see,
0:02:12 > 0:02:15the temperatures getting up into the mid-20s across northern England.
0:02:15 > 0:02:17and into southern Scotland approaching the low 20s as well,
0:02:17 > 0:02:20as that warm air continues to travel further northwards.
0:02:20 > 0:02:24As it does so, we do see a subtle change in our wind direction,
0:02:24 > 0:02:26dragging more of a south-easterly into eastern shores,
0:02:26 > 0:02:28so perhaps a little more cloud here,
0:02:28 > 0:02:31but all the time, that weather front really stagnating.
0:02:31 > 0:02:34More likely south-west England, Wales, Northern Ireland
0:02:34 > 0:02:37for the big, torrential downpours through Tuesday and Wednesday,
0:02:37 > 0:02:40but again, take this one slightly with a pinch of salt
0:02:40 > 0:02:43and keep tuned to the forecast for the details day-to-day,
0:02:43 > 0:02:45because again, even on Thursday, that same caveat -
0:02:45 > 0:02:49it's still hanging around towards western areas in particular,
0:02:49 > 0:02:52allowing that warmth to continue to establish itself further eastwards.
0:02:52 > 0:02:55Even by Thursday potentially the mid to high 20s.
0:02:55 > 0:02:58It's more likely later in the week, Thursday, Friday, even into
0:02:58 > 0:03:02the weekend before that finally gets a kick and heads its way eastwards,
0:03:02 > 0:03:06and then all of us will see that change, that thundery breakdown.
0:03:06 > 0:03:08We lose the heat, we lose the humidity, and behind it we get in
0:03:08 > 0:03:10the fresher Atlantic air, this westerly,
0:03:10 > 0:03:13but also this little bump in the isobars,
0:03:13 > 0:03:15that's a ridge of high pressure, the Azores High,
0:03:15 > 0:03:17and that is usual for this time of year.
0:03:17 > 0:03:20You normally see it hanging around the southern half of the UK,
0:03:20 > 0:03:23starting to drift away, allowing the low pressures to come in,
0:03:23 > 0:03:27but at the moment it looks as if the Azores High will hang on
0:03:27 > 0:03:28at least in southern areas.