0:00:03 > 0:00:06Good evening. It may well be the meteorological autumn now
0:00:06 > 0:00:08but the weather has other ideas
0:00:08 > 0:00:10and summer makes a return this week.
0:00:10 > 0:00:13And if we do peak at 31 degrees on Tuesday,
0:00:13 > 0:00:14that will be the first 31
0:00:14 > 0:00:16we've seen somewhere in the UK
0:00:16 > 0:00:18for about 40 years
0:00:18 > 0:00:20but it's not for all, the heat wave.
0:00:20 > 0:00:23It's mostly for eastern areas because further west,
0:00:23 > 0:00:25already the winds have escalated to gale force,
0:00:25 > 0:00:27even severe gale in the far north-west
0:00:27 > 0:00:30and accompanying those strong winds, some heavy rain.
0:00:30 > 0:00:32But to the east of that weather front,
0:00:32 > 0:00:34those southerly winds are coming
0:00:34 > 0:00:35from the north of Africa
0:00:35 > 0:00:36so bringing some very warm air
0:00:36 > 0:00:38so it will be quite exceptional,
0:00:38 > 0:00:39the heat, across eastern areas
0:00:39 > 0:00:41for this time of year.
0:00:41 > 0:00:42And that's despite more cloud.
0:00:42 > 0:00:44Now, there could well be some fog around
0:00:44 > 0:00:45for the rush at this time of year
0:00:45 > 0:00:46with the nights getting longer -
0:00:46 > 0:00:48that's something to watch for.
0:00:48 > 0:00:49It'll certainly be a wetter day
0:00:49 > 0:00:51for Northern Ireland, western and central Scotland,
0:00:51 > 0:00:53so here, although it's warm rain,
0:00:53 > 0:00:56it will be quite a muggy and cloudy day.
0:00:56 > 0:00:59Whilst even elsewhere where we have more clouds,
0:00:59 > 0:01:00it's hazy rather than sunny,
0:01:00 > 0:01:03we'll see temperatures a couple of degrees
0:01:03 > 0:01:05up on those of Sunday. Fine evening, Monday,
0:01:05 > 0:01:06for many eastern areas
0:01:06 > 0:01:08but you can see the heavy pulses of rain
0:01:08 > 0:01:09running along this weather front
0:01:09 > 0:01:12and that's going to be the difficulty this week -
0:01:12 > 0:01:13to see exactly where and when
0:01:13 > 0:01:16the heaviest pulses of rain will be.
0:01:16 > 0:01:19But an uncomfortable night, Monday into Tuesday,
0:01:19 > 0:01:20and that will be a theme
0:01:20 > 0:01:21as well through the coming week.
0:01:21 > 0:01:23Those sort of temperatures on Monday night
0:01:23 > 0:01:25more akin to the daytime temperatures
0:01:25 > 0:01:26at this time of year.
0:01:26 > 0:01:28So that weather front is still slow-moving
0:01:28 > 0:01:30and stuck across the western side of the country
0:01:30 > 0:01:33so Northern Ireland, western and northern Scotland,
0:01:33 > 0:01:34western Wales, western England
0:01:34 > 0:01:36are most at risk from some thundery downpours.
0:01:36 > 0:01:38However, elsewhere, with the light winds, again,
0:01:38 > 0:01:40a little bit of morning mist and fog
0:01:40 > 0:01:42but temperatures really starting
0:01:42 > 0:01:43to leap up and respond to that
0:01:43 > 0:01:45southerly wind and that sunshine,
0:01:45 > 0:01:46that strong September sunshine
0:01:46 > 0:01:48still on Tuesday.
0:01:48 > 0:01:49Tuesday night, again,
0:01:49 > 0:01:51very uncomfortably warm and muggy,
0:01:51 > 0:01:52high humidities, even where
0:01:52 > 0:01:54we have the rain further west.
0:01:54 > 0:01:55Now, come Wednesday,
0:01:55 > 0:01:57you may have noticed that low pressure starting to develop
0:01:57 > 0:01:59so there's a hint that we could start
0:01:59 > 0:02:00to pick up some heavy thundery showers
0:02:00 > 0:02:02towards the south but for most of us,
0:02:02 > 0:02:04if anything, the warmth will be
0:02:04 > 0:02:06more widespread on Wednesday.
0:02:06 > 0:02:08We may not see the 30 or 31
0:02:08 > 0:02:10but it will be more widely warm
0:02:10 > 0:02:11across the country.
0:02:11 > 0:02:13We do start to pick up a bit of
0:02:13 > 0:02:15an easterly coming onshore into
0:02:15 > 0:02:17the north-east of Scotland and north-east of England
0:02:17 > 0:02:19on Wednesday and Thursday so a little cooler here
0:02:19 > 0:02:20and this low pressure developing
0:02:20 > 0:02:22does cut off that southerly wind from Africa
0:02:22 > 0:02:25and so hence temperatures start to dip down again
0:02:25 > 0:02:27from Wednesday into Thursday.
0:02:27 > 0:02:29But still that risk mainly in the west
0:02:29 > 0:02:31and eventually the south on Thursday
0:02:31 > 0:02:32with many other areas
0:02:32 > 0:02:35seeing a lot of warm, dry weather, hazy sunshine.
0:02:35 > 0:02:37It now looks as if it'll be Friday
0:02:37 > 0:02:39before the Atlantic air kicks in
0:02:39 > 0:02:41and pushes those weather fronts eastwards.
0:02:41 > 0:02:42They'll go with a bang
0:02:42 > 0:02:44cos there will be some heavy and thundery rain
0:02:44 > 0:02:47associated with that breakdown but it will freshen up
0:02:47 > 0:02:50quite significantly behind that weather front,
0:02:50 > 0:02:53a change of type, if you like, by the end of the week.
0:02:53 > 0:02:55So for this week, not fine for all.
0:02:55 > 0:02:58Windy and showery in western areas
0:02:58 > 0:02:59but heat and humidity
0:02:59 > 0:03:01dominating across central
0:03:01 > 0:03:03and eastern areas in particular.
0:03:03 > 0:03:04Thereafter, we get back
0:03:04 > 0:03:05into the Atlantic flow
0:03:05 > 0:03:07but we are watching this -
0:03:07 > 0:03:08it's a tropical system,
0:03:08 > 0:03:09it's got tropical air around it
0:03:09 > 0:03:11so that might provide another
0:03:11 > 0:03:12fly in the ointment
0:03:12 > 0:03:13towards next weekend
0:03:13 > 0:03:15and perhaps the end of next weekend.
0:03:15 > 0:03:16And then further ahead,
0:03:16 > 0:03:17it looks as if the low pressures
0:03:17 > 0:03:19will establish towards the north
0:03:19 > 0:03:21and the Azores high hang on near the south
0:03:21 > 0:03:22but obviously the fly in the ointment
0:03:22 > 0:03:24could well be some tropical air
0:03:24 > 0:03:25mixed in next weekend.
0:03:25 > 0:03:29Prior to that, the potential for some exceptional warmth.
0:03:29 > 0:03:30As ever, there's more online.
0:03:32 > 0:03:36This is a trailer for BBC Four's conceptual art season.