14/09/2016

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0:00:03 > 0:00:06What a day Tuesday was, remarkable weather for different reasons,

0:00:06 > 0:00:08depending on where you are, but under the heading of "extreme".

0:00:08 > 0:00:12First of all, extreme heat, 34 Celsius in Kent,

0:00:12 > 0:00:15the highest temperature of the year, the highest in September since...

0:00:15 > 0:00:18Well, yesterday I said if we got to 31, it would be the hottest

0:00:18 > 0:00:21in September since Donny Osmond was at number one in 1973,

0:00:21 > 0:00:24but you have to go back to 1911 to get a temperature higher than

0:00:24 > 0:00:26this in the UK in September.

0:00:26 > 0:00:29We were going to the music hall then to get the latest hits.

0:00:29 > 0:00:32So there's your headline figure of 34 in Gravesend,

0:00:32 > 0:00:34but that's exceptional in mid-September.

0:00:34 > 0:00:39In Hull, 30. But there are the contrasts, Belfast 18, Glasgow 17

0:00:39 > 0:00:42and, for some, torrential thunderstorms.

0:00:42 > 0:00:44This is what went through Manchester on Tuesday evening,

0:00:44 > 0:00:47causing the postponement of that Champions League game.

0:00:47 > 0:00:49The weather contrasts because of a stuck weather pattern with

0:00:49 > 0:00:52a weather front close to western Britain with outbreaks of

0:00:52 > 0:00:55rain on it, but ahead of it we're still drawing up that very warm,

0:00:55 > 0:00:57humid air from the Continent.

0:00:57 > 0:01:00And to look at the reasons for a stuck weather pattern,

0:01:00 > 0:01:02we look at the jet stream this week,

0:01:02 > 0:01:06and it has a big dip in it, then it rides high to the north of the UK.

0:01:06 > 0:01:11It is a highly amplified pattern of the jet stream we call "meridional".

0:01:11 > 0:01:13And whenever you have a meridional jet stream pattern,

0:01:13 > 0:01:17it's prone to atmospheric blocking. Nothing is moving any time soon.

0:01:17 > 0:01:20You end up with almost the weather stuck in time.

0:01:20 > 0:01:22But the weather pattern is going to change,

0:01:22 > 0:01:26finally, going into the weekend, and we'll look at that in a moment.

0:01:26 > 0:01:29First of all, to Wednesday, first to that weather front to the west.

0:01:29 > 0:01:31Not as active on Wednesday, a little rain to Northern Ireland

0:01:31 > 0:01:34and northern Scotland. England and Wales looking mainly dry.

0:01:34 > 0:01:36A warmer day in Wales and western England,

0:01:36 > 0:01:38a cooler day in south-east Scotland, north-east England.

0:01:38 > 0:01:41Still near 30 in the hottest parts of south-east England,

0:01:41 > 0:01:44East Anglia and into the East Midlands.

0:01:44 > 0:01:46On Thursday, the weather pattern's still the same.

0:01:46 > 0:01:50We still have that weather front, we're still drawing in some warmth

0:01:50 > 0:01:52ahead of that from the weather front, parts of Northern Ireland

0:01:52 > 0:01:56and Western Scotland at risk of seeing some rain moving in.

0:01:56 > 0:01:58Still some warm, sunny spells elsewhere,

0:01:58 > 0:02:01and still the highest temperatures near 30.

0:02:01 > 0:02:05But Thursday night into Friday, very wet weather potentially for

0:02:05 > 0:02:08Scotland, northern England as the front moves eastwards across

0:02:08 > 0:02:12the UK, clearing Friday to allow Atlantic air to move back in.

0:02:12 > 0:02:16That's a big change in how the weather feels, so temperatures

0:02:16 > 0:02:19are coming down, it will feel much fresher as the humidity disappears.

0:02:19 > 0:02:21The start of the weekend,

0:02:21 > 0:02:23a brief ridge of high pressure for England and Wales, but

0:02:23 > 0:02:25a weather front to the north of the UK looks like it will bring

0:02:25 > 0:02:28some outbreaks of rain and brisk winds into parts of Scotland

0:02:28 > 0:02:30and Northern Ireland.

0:02:30 > 0:02:32England and Wales, at this stage, for Saturday looking mainly dry.

0:02:32 > 0:02:35Look at those temperatures, close to normal for the time of year.

0:02:35 > 0:02:39Sunday, I mentioned it yesterday, former Tropical Storm Ian

0:02:39 > 0:02:42looks like it's converging in its movement

0:02:42 > 0:02:44between Iceland and Scotland,

0:02:44 > 0:02:47picking up the winds north-west of Britain on Sunday and bringing

0:02:47 > 0:02:50a band of wet weather in from the west, but it looks as if this former

0:02:50 > 0:02:52tropical weather system will not

0:02:52 > 0:02:54produce anything exceptional for the UK.

0:02:54 > 0:02:57So, you get the idea. Things are starting to become more mobile, and

0:02:57 > 0:03:00that's the change in the jet stream pattern lasting into next week.

0:03:00 > 0:03:03We've lost the big dips, and the ridges are just moving across the

0:03:03 > 0:03:05Atlantic towards us, a more zonal pattern,

0:03:05 > 0:03:08and that means a more changeable pattern in our weather.

0:03:08 > 0:03:12As weather systems can come on through, nothing is being blocked.

0:03:12 > 0:03:15So, what we can expect next week is, well,

0:03:15 > 0:03:17a bit of autumn in our weather. Nothing too extreme.

0:03:17 > 0:03:19It looks like it'll be changeable, occasionally wet,

0:03:19 > 0:03:21occasionally dry, the humidity gone

0:03:21 > 0:03:24and temperatures closer to normal for the time of year,

0:03:24 > 0:03:27a weather pattern which is finally

0:03:27 > 0:03:29suited to the time of year. And that's it for now.