0:00:03 > 0:00:07Hello, there. Next week, we may have some air from a tropical origin.
0:00:07 > 0:00:09Not unusual for this time of the year,
0:00:09 > 0:00:12but it can cause some headaches for the computer models.
0:00:12 > 0:00:14We'll get to that in a moment.
0:00:14 > 0:00:16First of all, we're looking to the west
0:00:16 > 0:00:18to see a bit of a change coming in on Wednesday.
0:00:18 > 0:00:21This weather front area of low pressure
0:00:21 > 0:00:23eventually bringing some wet and windier weather.
0:00:23 > 0:00:25Ahead of it, some mist,
0:00:25 > 0:00:27fog and low cloud breaking up,
0:00:27 > 0:00:28brightening up fairly quickly.
0:00:28 > 0:00:30Sunny spells developing,
0:00:30 > 0:00:32a few showers getting drawn up
0:00:32 > 0:00:34on this freshening southerly airflow
0:00:34 > 0:00:35ahead of those stronger winds
0:00:35 > 0:00:36and the rain that arrives
0:00:36 > 0:00:38in Northern Ireland in the afternoon.
0:00:38 > 0:00:39Two or three hours of rain
0:00:39 > 0:00:41just knocking on the door
0:00:41 > 0:00:43of the western mainland of Scotland by four o'clock.
0:00:43 > 0:00:44A few showers ahead of that in Scotland,
0:00:44 > 0:00:46some sunshine, too,
0:00:46 > 0:00:47and that's really the way of it
0:00:47 > 0:00:48across England and Wales.
0:00:48 > 0:00:50Probably more bands of showers
0:00:50 > 0:00:52across England and Wales in the afternoon,
0:00:52 > 0:00:53but still very hit and miss.
0:00:53 > 0:00:55There'll be some sunshine around as well.
0:00:55 > 0:00:57For many southern and eastern areas,
0:00:57 > 0:00:58it may still be dry in the afternoon
0:00:58 > 0:01:00and probably a warmer, brighter day
0:01:00 > 0:01:02than it was on Tuesday
0:01:02 > 0:01:03for East Yorkshire and Lincolnshire.
0:01:03 > 0:01:05By the time we get to Thursday,
0:01:05 > 0:01:06that weather front,
0:01:06 > 0:01:08there isn't much on it at all.
0:01:08 > 0:01:09Very few showers to run eastwards
0:01:09 > 0:01:10across England and Wales,
0:01:10 > 0:01:12just a bit of cloud behind it,
0:01:12 > 0:01:14some showers into the north-west later on,
0:01:14 > 0:01:16but for the autumn equinox,
0:01:16 > 0:01:18which is Thursday, of course,
0:01:18 > 0:01:19equal day and night,
0:01:19 > 0:01:21there should be a fair bit of sunshine around
0:01:21 > 0:01:23and lots of dry weather, too,
0:01:23 > 0:01:24and in the sunshine,
0:01:24 > 0:01:26it should feel quite pleasant, too.
0:01:26 > 0:01:28Now, as we head towards the end of the week,
0:01:28 > 0:01:30high pressure tries to build up from the south,
0:01:30 > 0:01:32but it doesn't really make it
0:01:32 > 0:01:34because we've got a deepening area of low pressure
0:01:34 > 0:01:37that's racing in from off the Atlantic
0:01:37 > 0:01:39and that will bring increasingly wet weather
0:01:39 > 0:01:42on Friday to Scotland and Northern Ireland,
0:01:42 > 0:01:44the winds really picking up as well.
0:01:44 > 0:01:46Freshening winds across the border,
0:01:46 > 0:01:47but away from the north-west,
0:01:47 > 0:01:49some sunshine and dry weather, too.
0:01:49 > 0:01:51Now, during the weekend, Saturday,
0:01:51 > 0:01:53we start to see this band of rain,
0:01:53 > 0:01:54heavy at times,
0:01:54 > 0:01:56easing across Scotland and Northern Ireland
0:01:56 > 0:01:58and pushing into western parts of England and Wales,
0:01:58 > 0:01:59ahead of it some sunshine.
0:01:59 > 0:02:02Uncertainties as to how quickly this rain
0:02:02 > 0:02:04will push its way eastwards
0:02:04 > 0:02:06across the UK during Saturday.
0:02:06 > 0:02:07At the moment,
0:02:07 > 0:02:09it looks like the worst of that rain
0:02:09 > 0:02:11should be clearing away from the south-east
0:02:11 > 0:02:13early on Sunday,
0:02:13 > 0:02:15but with low pressure close to the north-west,
0:02:15 > 0:02:17this is where we will focus a lot of showers
0:02:17 > 0:02:20and it's still going to be windy on Sunday.
0:02:20 > 0:02:21Some strong,
0:02:21 > 0:02:23perhaps again some locally gale force winds,
0:02:23 > 0:02:25but some sunshine away from the showers.
0:02:25 > 0:02:27Now, I mentioned the tropical air
0:02:27 > 0:02:28and we look into the Atlantic,
0:02:28 > 0:02:30where we've got not just one,
0:02:30 > 0:02:33but TWO tropical storms a little earlier on.
0:02:33 > 0:02:35This is the one that we probably need to focus on.
0:02:35 > 0:02:38Karl could actually become a hurricane.
0:02:38 > 0:02:40Expected to track towards Bermuda,
0:02:40 > 0:02:42this is where things could be, though,
0:02:42 > 0:02:47by Sunday and Karl or what's left of Karl
0:02:47 > 0:02:49likely to get swept up
0:02:49 > 0:02:51by our strengthening jet stream
0:02:51 > 0:02:53across the Atlantic.
0:02:53 > 0:02:55Uncertainties to what happens to Karl,
0:02:55 > 0:02:57but, at the moment, it looks like
0:02:57 > 0:02:58it could get swallowed up
0:02:58 > 0:03:00by a deeper area of low pressure
0:03:00 > 0:03:02towards the north-west
0:03:02 > 0:03:05and likely to bring in some warmer air for a while
0:03:05 > 0:03:08into the early part of next week.
0:03:08 > 0:03:10We'll see how things play out,
0:03:10 > 0:03:13but unlikely to affect our general theme next week -
0:03:13 > 0:03:15one of much more unsettled weather
0:03:15 > 0:03:17across the north-west
0:03:17 > 0:03:19with some outbreaks of rain
0:03:19 > 0:03:20and the strongest winds
0:03:20 > 0:03:22where towards the south-east, yes,
0:03:22 > 0:03:23there'll still be some rain at times,
0:03:23 > 0:03:25but, here, it won't be as wet.
0:03:25 > 0:03:27It should be drier, brighter,
0:03:27 > 0:03:28some sunshine and a bit warmer as well,
0:03:28 > 0:03:30but, as I say, all to play for.