0:00:03 > 0:00:06Hello there. With a storm interacting with a jet stream,
0:00:06 > 0:00:09the weather's going to get pretty complicated as we go through
0:00:09 > 0:00:11the early and middle part of the next week.
0:00:11 > 0:00:14Before then, though, the weekend weather reasonably straightforward.
0:00:14 > 0:00:17Wet and windy weather pitching edging into the west,
0:00:17 > 0:00:19particularly western Scotland and Northern Ireland,
0:00:19 > 0:00:21whereas many central and eastern areas having quite
0:00:21 > 0:00:23a warm and sunny Saturday.
0:00:23 > 0:00:26That all leads into a Sunday where we're back pretty much all in
0:00:26 > 0:00:30the same boat, a fresher feel with sunshine and showers for most of us.
0:00:30 > 0:00:33The weekend's weather is dominated by a low pressure system and
0:00:33 > 0:00:36particularly this trailing cold front.
0:00:36 > 0:00:39That will bring the rain, the isobars squeezing together,
0:00:39 > 0:00:40telling us it's going to get windy,
0:00:40 > 0:00:42particularly wet and windy
0:00:42 > 0:00:43in western Scotland.
0:00:43 > 0:00:44By the end of the day here
0:00:44 > 0:00:46the rain could be causing a few problems,
0:00:46 > 0:00:47building up and building up.
0:00:47 > 0:00:48We'll see the wet weather
0:00:48 > 0:00:49also across Northern Ireland,
0:00:49 > 0:00:51quite a soggy Saturday year,
0:00:51 > 0:00:52eventually fringing into westernmost
0:00:52 > 0:00:54parts of England and Wales.
0:00:54 > 0:00:55But the bulk of England and Wales
0:00:55 > 0:00:56dry with southerly winds
0:00:56 > 0:00:59It will be warm in the sunshine
0:00:59 > 0:01:01and 23 or 24 degrees Celsius.
0:01:01 > 0:01:02The weather front, though,
0:01:02 > 0:01:04does eventually stagger its way
0:01:04 > 0:01:06across most places during Saturday night,
0:01:06 > 0:01:07bringing some wet weather for many,
0:01:07 > 0:01:09easing off a little bit
0:01:09 > 0:01:10as the front works its way eastwards
0:01:10 > 0:01:12and noticeably changing the wind direction.
0:01:12 > 0:01:13No longer a southerly,
0:01:13 > 0:01:15now we've got a westerly.
0:01:15 > 0:01:16Still likely to have that weather front
0:01:16 > 0:01:17bringing cloud and some rain
0:01:17 > 0:01:19across eastern England for a time on Sunday,
0:01:19 > 0:01:20but once it scoots through,
0:01:20 > 0:01:21we're left with sunshine
0:01:21 > 0:01:23and, particularly in the west,
0:01:23 > 0:01:24plenty of showers
0:01:24 > 0:01:26and because of that change of wind direction
0:01:26 > 0:01:27it'll feel fresher, feel cooler.
0:01:27 > 0:01:29Temperatures more likely to be
0:01:29 > 0:01:3115 or 16 degrees Celsius for most of us.
0:01:31 > 0:01:33That could lead into a chilly night
0:01:33 > 0:01:35on Sunday night and into Monday morning
0:01:35 > 0:01:37and then things get complicated.
0:01:37 > 0:01:39On Monday, we start to see some outbreaks
0:01:39 > 0:01:40of showery rain drifting in
0:01:40 > 0:01:42from the Atlantic.
0:01:42 > 0:01:43And we have to look way out
0:01:43 > 0:01:45into the Atlantic for why things are
0:01:45 > 0:01:46getting more complicated.
0:01:46 > 0:01:50This - we've been tracking it for a number of days -
0:01:50 > 0:01:51is Karl intensifying,
0:01:51 > 0:01:53likely to be a hurricane through the course of the weekend,
0:01:53 > 0:01:58close by to Bermuda, bringing a lot of heavy rain for a time here.
0:01:58 > 0:02:01And then the storm system tracks its way slowly northwards
0:02:01 > 0:02:05and becomes engaged with the jet stream and the more
0:02:05 > 0:02:10typical low-pressure systems that usually affect our shores and
0:02:10 > 0:02:13as this one gets sort of subsumed, absorbed, by this area of low
0:02:13 > 0:02:16pressure, that's why things get complicated,
0:02:16 > 0:02:18Monday and particularly into Tuesday.
0:02:18 > 0:02:22It's injecting some moisture, it's injecting some energy,
0:02:22 > 0:02:24and that does tend to create
0:02:24 > 0:02:26uncertainty because of that
0:02:26 > 0:02:29extra warmth that it's picked up from the tropics.
0:02:29 > 0:02:33It'll interact with the jet as well and that also adds to the confusion.
0:02:33 > 0:02:35Because this doesn't happen all that often,
0:02:35 > 0:02:36often the computers models get
0:02:36 > 0:02:38a little bit confused and mixed up,
0:02:38 > 0:02:41which is why there's a lot of uncertainty about Tuesday's
0:02:41 > 0:02:44forecast and indeed Wednesday's, but it does look as though there
0:02:44 > 0:02:47will be a low-pressure system close to the UK.
0:02:47 > 0:02:50And because of that extra energy, that extra oomph from Karl,
0:02:50 > 0:02:53it may well be packing quite a punch in terms of its wind strength.
0:02:53 > 0:02:57We need to watch these blustery conditions on Tuesday across parts
0:02:57 > 0:02:59of northern Britain in particular,
0:02:59 > 0:03:00so we'll be keeping our eyes on that.
0:03:00 > 0:03:03Now, once that system has gone through and, again,
0:03:03 > 0:03:06lots of uncertainty about the timing and the strength of that system,
0:03:06 > 0:03:09it does tend to open the door to more weather systems piling in from
0:03:09 > 0:03:12the Atlantic. The jet stream is getting more and more active,
0:03:12 > 0:03:13so we're going to see
0:03:13 > 0:03:15more of these weather systems moving through.
0:03:15 > 0:03:19So often getting quite windy towards next week and later next week.
0:03:19 > 0:03:20Changeable spells of weather, so, yes,
0:03:20 > 0:03:22there'll be some dry and bright weather,
0:03:22 > 0:03:25then it'll turn a little bit wet and towards the end of next week,
0:03:25 > 0:03:26there are some signs
0:03:26 > 0:03:30it may then start to turn a little bit cooler. Goodbye.