0:00:03 > 0:00:05Hello. Climatologically speaking,
0:00:05 > 0:00:06so far October's been a bit topsy-turvy.
0:00:06 > 0:00:08At this time of year we'd expect the north-west
0:00:08 > 0:00:10to be wettest, the south and east the driest.
0:00:10 > 0:00:12That's not been the case.
0:00:12 > 0:00:13Wettest spot up to the 11th
0:00:13 > 0:00:14was actually Weybourne in Norfolk.
0:00:14 > 0:00:16A month's worth of rain following
0:00:16 > 0:00:17that first week and a half,
0:00:17 > 0:00:18whereas to the north
0:00:18 > 0:00:19and west of the UK,
0:00:19 > 0:00:21all these locations have
0:00:21 > 0:00:23barely seen a drop of rain.
0:00:23 > 0:00:24That is about to change.
0:00:24 > 0:00:26The high pressure system,
0:00:26 > 0:00:27that blocking high that's been
0:00:27 > 0:00:28across Scandinavia for so long,
0:00:28 > 0:00:29is now relinquishing its grip,
0:00:29 > 0:00:31and through the rest of the week
0:00:31 > 0:00:32low pressure comes to dominate,
0:00:32 > 0:00:34bringing outbreaks of rain
0:00:34 > 0:00:35to all parts of the UK and also a change
0:00:35 > 0:00:37in the way our weather feels.
0:00:37 > 0:00:38The colder air, the blues here,
0:00:38 > 0:00:40gets pushed out the way as we
0:00:40 > 0:00:41lose the easterly winds,
0:00:41 > 0:00:42southerlies by the end of the week,
0:00:42 > 0:00:43and so temperatures
0:00:43 > 0:00:45should start to rise once again.
0:00:45 > 0:00:46As for Thursday, we've still
0:00:46 > 0:00:48got the Scandinavian high dominating,
0:00:48 > 0:00:49still those easterly winds,
0:00:49 > 0:00:50and like recent days,
0:00:50 > 0:00:53outbreaks of rain across eastern areas,
0:00:53 > 0:00:54but this time, more of them
0:00:54 > 0:00:55getting further westwards,
0:00:55 > 0:00:56into Western Scotland,
0:00:56 > 0:00:58Northern Ireland, north-west England,
0:00:58 > 0:01:00the Midlands and north-eastern Wales.
0:01:00 > 0:01:01Driest weather throughout Thursday
0:01:01 > 0:01:03tending to be the further south you are,
0:01:03 > 0:01:05with some sunshine, but temperatures
0:01:05 > 0:01:06down on what they should be
0:01:06 > 0:01:07and made to feel even colder
0:01:07 > 0:01:09by the strength of the wind.
0:01:09 > 0:01:11Which strengthens further through
0:01:11 > 0:01:13the night and into Friday across the north,
0:01:13 > 0:01:14as this area of low pressure
0:01:14 > 0:01:15starts to dominate even more.
0:01:15 > 0:01:17Could see gales across eastern Scotland,
0:01:17 > 0:01:19and that relentless east to south-easterly wind
0:01:19 > 0:01:21will pile in the rain clouds
0:01:21 > 0:01:22across Aberdeenshire and parts
0:01:22 > 0:01:23of Caithness in particular.
0:01:23 > 0:01:25A thoroughly wet, windy day
0:01:25 > 0:01:28here with gales in places.
0:01:28 > 0:01:29South of that, should be drier and brighter,
0:01:29 > 0:01:30little bit of sunshine around,
0:01:30 > 0:01:32but some showers developing through the day.
0:01:32 > 0:01:33Winds always a little lighter
0:01:33 > 0:01:34for the south, so we'll get
0:01:34 > 0:01:36a glimpse of sunshine, probably won't feel too bad.
0:01:36 > 0:01:38But through Friday night
0:01:38 > 0:01:39and into Saturday we see
0:01:39 > 0:01:40the rain turn a little heavier
0:01:40 > 0:01:41across parts of the country,
0:01:41 > 0:01:44as this low pressure continues to spin round,
0:01:44 > 0:01:45spreading the rain northwards and westwards.
0:01:45 > 0:01:47Going to be parts of Scotland,
0:01:47 > 0:01:48north-east England who bear
0:01:48 > 0:01:49the brunt to start the weekend,
0:01:49 > 0:01:51the most persistent of the rain,
0:01:51 > 0:01:52strongest of the winds too.
0:01:52 > 0:01:53The breeze picks up relative
0:01:53 > 0:01:55to Friday for England and Wales,
0:01:55 > 0:01:57there will be some sunshine, especially early on,
0:01:57 > 0:01:59but some heavy, thundery showers developing later.
0:01:59 > 0:02:01In the sunshine though, temperatures will lift
0:02:01 > 0:02:02to the mid to high teens.
0:02:02 > 0:02:03Those southerly to south-easterly
0:02:03 > 0:02:05winds will dominate into Sunday,
0:02:05 > 0:02:07still spreading areas of rain across the country.
0:02:07 > 0:02:08So we will all see rain at some point,
0:02:08 > 0:02:10it's whether you get it by night or by day.
0:02:10 > 0:02:12Pinpointing the exact position of showers
0:02:12 > 0:02:14this far ahead always difficult,
0:02:14 > 0:02:16but still some heavy and thundery ones to come.
0:02:16 > 0:02:17Bit of sunshine in between
0:02:17 > 0:02:19and a bit on the breezy side.
0:02:19 > 0:02:21Again, in the sunshine though, temperatures what
0:02:21 > 0:02:22they should be for the time of year.
0:02:22 > 0:02:24Now, by the end of Sunday and into Monday,
0:02:24 > 0:02:27that low pressure spreads a bit further northwards.
0:02:27 > 0:02:29We do have a weather front lingering to East Anglia
0:02:29 > 0:02:31and the south-east to start the week,
0:02:31 > 0:02:32which could bring a wet start
0:02:32 > 0:02:33then gradually clearing.
0:02:33 > 0:02:35Much of England and Wales dry,
0:02:35 > 0:02:37and as that low pressure's a bit further away,
0:02:37 > 0:02:38there should be fewer showers
0:02:38 > 0:02:39across the country.
0:02:39 > 0:02:40Most likely though,
0:02:40 > 0:02:41towards the north-west of the UK.
0:02:41 > 0:02:43Beyond that, well, we have to
0:02:43 > 0:02:44step back the clock a bit,
0:02:44 > 0:02:45to what's happening at the end
0:02:45 > 0:02:47of this week in the west Pacific.
0:02:47 > 0:02:49We mentioned Nicole yesterday,
0:02:49 > 0:02:51battering Bermuda on Thursday,
0:02:51 > 0:02:52but this will be the remnants
0:02:52 > 0:02:53by the time we get to the weekend.
0:02:53 > 0:02:55Around that some very warm air,
0:02:55 > 0:02:56and as another low-pressure system
0:02:56 > 0:02:58pushes out of eastern Canada,
0:02:58 > 0:02:59cold air comes to meet it.
0:02:59 > 0:03:01Where you get that clash of air masses,
0:03:01 > 0:03:02we speed up the jet stream.
0:03:02 > 0:03:05A more vigorous jet stream into next week,
0:03:05 > 0:03:07which will stir up the weather once again.
0:03:07 > 0:03:08Before it arrives, we'll have this initial dip
0:03:08 > 0:03:10in the jet stream, which will bring another area
0:03:10 > 0:03:12of low pressure our way, probably for Tuesday,
0:03:12 > 0:03:14so again, potentially wet, windy
0:03:14 > 0:03:17and fairly cool, but as that low-pressure system
0:03:17 > 0:03:19pushes its way northwards, the jet stream kicks in.
0:03:19 > 0:03:21The jet stream should be far enough north
0:03:21 > 0:03:23to let high pressure develop from the south,
0:03:23 > 0:03:25and so by the time we get to
0:03:25 > 0:03:26the end of next week,
0:03:26 > 0:03:27unlike for the month so far,
0:03:27 > 0:03:29it could be the south and east
0:03:29 > 0:03:31where the driest weather will be. Take care.