0:00:03 > 0:00:04Hello there and welcome to
0:00:04 > 0:00:05a look at the longer-term forecast.
0:00:05 > 0:00:06First of all, let's talk about
0:00:06 > 0:00:08what's happening at the moment.
0:00:08 > 0:00:10We've had what's called a blocking high
0:00:10 > 0:00:11for the last week or two
0:00:11 > 0:00:13and these quite keen easterly winds.
0:00:13 > 0:00:14That blocking high has prevented
0:00:14 > 0:00:16the low pressure coming in off
0:00:16 > 0:00:18the Atlantic, our normal pattern
0:00:18 > 0:00:19if you like, but this weekend
0:00:19 > 0:00:21that high pressure retrogresses,
0:00:21 > 0:00:23in come those low pressures off the Atlantic,
0:00:23 > 0:00:25so we switch an easterly, chilly wind
0:00:25 > 0:00:27for a southerly.
0:00:27 > 0:00:29So we'll see some sunshine, however,
0:00:29 > 0:00:30it will stay unsettled,
0:00:30 > 0:00:32with low pressure sitting over the country.
0:00:32 > 0:00:36It's just that it will feel a little less cold.
0:00:36 > 0:00:37Although the exception to the rule
0:00:37 > 0:00:39is Scotland on Saturday,
0:00:39 > 0:00:41we've got that driving easterly wind,
0:00:41 > 0:00:43heavy rain persisting in central
0:00:43 > 0:00:45and northern areas for much of the day.
0:00:45 > 0:00:47Heavy showers working up the west of the country
0:00:47 > 0:00:49into Northern Ireland and northern England,
0:00:49 > 0:00:50and later in the day some
0:00:50 > 0:00:52really intense downpours,
0:00:52 > 0:00:54torrential downpours, hail, thunder,
0:00:54 > 0:00:56squally winds following into the south.
0:00:56 > 0:00:58Now, in between there will be drier,
0:00:58 > 0:01:00sunnier weather and it will feel warmer,
0:01:00 > 0:01:01look at those temperatures,
0:01:01 > 0:01:0315 to 18, considerably higher than this week.
0:01:03 > 0:01:04The changes on Sunday are for
0:01:04 > 0:01:06some drier weather for the north
0:01:06 > 0:01:07and east of Scotland at last,
0:01:07 > 0:01:09the rain disappearing further north,
0:01:09 > 0:01:11but elsewhere the showers become more widespread,
0:01:11 > 0:01:12and given the energy around
0:01:12 > 0:01:14our shores in the sea at the moment,
0:01:14 > 0:01:16that's where we'll see the heavier showers,
0:01:16 > 0:01:17around the coast, but again,
0:01:17 > 0:01:19given some sunshine in between,
0:01:19 > 0:01:22we could see 13s to 17s.
0:01:22 > 0:01:23That area of low pressure bringing
0:01:23 > 0:01:25the showers or longer spells of rain this weekend
0:01:25 > 0:01:27migrates a little further northwards
0:01:27 > 0:01:29into the start of the new week,
0:01:29 > 0:01:30so the westerly wind will dominate,
0:01:30 > 0:01:32bringing in showers, and with low pressure
0:01:32 > 0:01:34near the north-west, that's where we'll see
0:01:34 > 0:01:36the majority of the showers on Monday.
0:01:36 > 0:01:38Always just a chance for eastern areas,
0:01:38 > 0:01:40but again, look at those temperatures
0:01:40 > 0:01:41given the wind direction.
0:01:41 > 0:01:43Tuesday, we see a subtle change
0:01:43 > 0:01:44in our wind direction.
0:01:44 > 0:01:46We get this weather front coming in
0:01:46 > 0:01:47and behind it, as the high pressure
0:01:47 > 0:01:48starts to build,
0:01:48 > 0:01:50the north-westerly wind comes in.
0:01:50 > 0:01:52So we will see a dip in temperature, I think,
0:01:52 > 0:01:55through the course of Tuesday, and also,
0:01:55 > 0:01:56you may have noticed that
0:01:56 > 0:01:58weather system pushes the increased risk
0:01:58 > 0:02:01of showers into eastern areas as well.
0:02:01 > 0:02:03Still, there's dry weather between the showers,
0:02:03 > 0:02:04and they'll become fewer
0:02:04 > 0:02:06and further between by Wednesday.
0:02:06 > 0:02:08Still that chilly breeze.
0:02:08 > 0:02:10So why is it looking more settled as
0:02:10 > 0:02:12we head towards the middle of the week?
0:02:12 > 0:02:16Well, it's because we've got pressure building.
0:02:16 > 0:02:18This time building in from the Atlantic,
0:02:18 > 0:02:20not from the east, from Scandinavia.
0:02:20 > 0:02:22So we'll keep the north-westerly wind
0:02:22 > 0:02:23for a time but we will cut off
0:02:23 > 0:02:24the feed of showers,
0:02:24 > 0:02:25just down the north sea we're
0:02:25 > 0:02:26going to have that low pressure,
0:02:26 > 0:02:28and also further west,
0:02:28 > 0:02:29the remnants of Nicole
0:02:29 > 0:02:31causing us some issues,
0:02:31 > 0:02:32pushing all that warm air
0:02:32 > 0:02:34in the jet stream northwards.
0:02:34 > 0:02:35Which means high pressure
0:02:35 > 0:02:37will build ahead of it,
0:02:37 > 0:02:38and the low pressure could
0:02:38 > 0:02:40well continue to dive down
0:02:40 > 0:02:41the north sea as we saw,
0:02:41 > 0:02:43so allowing more showers into eastern areas,
0:02:43 > 0:02:44with the more settled weather
0:02:44 > 0:02:46across the south and west.
0:02:46 > 0:02:48Later in the week, as Nicole buckles
0:02:48 > 0:02:49our jet stream even further,
0:02:49 > 0:02:51it pushes high pressure
0:02:51 > 0:02:53towards central and eastern areas,
0:02:53 > 0:02:54and low pressure up towards
0:02:54 > 0:02:56the north and west of the UK.
0:02:56 > 0:02:58So subtle changes as the dry weather
0:02:58 > 0:02:59establishes itself further eastwards,
0:02:59 > 0:03:01and thereafter we could go back to
0:03:01 > 0:03:04the blocking high pressure from the east again.
0:03:04 > 0:03:05But high pressure at this time
0:03:05 > 0:03:07of year, from the east or west,
0:03:07 > 0:03:09means chilly, often foggy mornings
0:03:09 > 0:03:11followed by quite sunny
0:03:11 > 0:03:12and pleasant afternoons.
0:03:12 > 0:03:14So that may well be what we'll see
0:03:14 > 0:03:16on the cards later next week.
0:03:16 > 0:03:17Let's summarise that,
0:03:17 > 0:03:19lots going on.
0:03:19 > 0:03:20It will effectively
0:03:20 > 0:03:21turn cooler midweek for a time,
0:03:21 > 0:03:23the driest weather at that stage
0:03:23 > 0:03:24in the south and west.
0:03:24 > 0:03:25There is a lot of uncertainty later on,
0:03:25 > 0:03:27but at this stage it looks set to
0:03:27 > 0:03:28get drier in the east,
0:03:28 > 0:03:29but with some foggy mornings
0:03:29 > 0:03:31and fine afternoons.