0:00:03 > 0:00:05Hi. We're over halfway through the month and it's turning out to be
0:00:05 > 0:00:08a peculiar October. A month often associated with westerly winds
0:00:08 > 0:00:10will probably end up
0:00:10 > 0:00:11being dominated by easterly winds,
0:00:11 > 0:00:14despite the fact that, temporarily,
0:00:14 > 0:00:16we've got those westerlies in, courtesy of low pressure
0:00:16 > 0:00:19to the northwest. The winds circulate in this direction
0:00:19 > 0:00:22around low pressure hence that feed of westerlies.
0:00:22 > 0:00:24And those westerlies are carrying some showers,
0:00:24 > 0:00:26particularly across the north and the west,
0:00:26 > 0:00:29so this fairly standard weather for the time of year.
0:00:29 > 0:00:31This is where the heaviest showers will be.
0:00:31 > 0:00:33Far fewer showers on Monday further south and east
0:00:33 > 0:00:34and with plenty of sunshine here,
0:00:34 > 0:00:37as we've seen in the last couple of days, temperatures
0:00:37 > 0:00:40doing pretty well, up into the mid to high teens,
0:00:40 > 0:00:41whereas with the frequent showers
0:00:41 > 0:00:43further north and west it'll feel cooler.
0:00:43 > 0:00:46And then we're going to see a change in the weather,
0:00:46 > 0:00:49courtesy of a cold front coming in from the northwest.
0:00:49 > 0:00:52It's going to bring a band of quite heavy showery rain
0:00:52 > 0:00:53down across the country.
0:00:53 > 0:00:55Could be a wet start on Tuesday morning
0:00:55 > 0:00:57across parts of southern and eastern England.
0:00:57 > 0:00:58That'll clear through but because
0:00:58 > 0:01:00it's a cold front, behind that,
0:01:00 > 0:01:01despite some sunshine,
0:01:01 > 0:01:03temperatures will be lower by a few degrees.
0:01:03 > 0:01:06You'll notice that, not helped by a brisk wind,
0:01:06 > 0:01:07and a cluster of showery rain
0:01:07 > 0:01:08pushing down out of Scotland
0:01:08 > 0:01:10into northern England,
0:01:10 > 0:01:12so just 10 or 11 degrees here.
0:01:12 > 0:01:13I want to take you out into the Atlantic.
0:01:13 > 0:01:17If you were watching yesterday I mentioned Hurricane Nicole.
0:01:17 > 0:01:19It's still there, it's been there for a week or two now.
0:01:19 > 0:01:22Somebody once said, "Don't worry, it's not heading in our direction,"
0:01:22 > 0:01:26but it could have an indirect impact on us because as a deep area
0:01:26 > 0:01:29of low pressure, as it heads northwards,
0:01:29 > 0:01:32it's going to push a lot of energy northwards as well
0:01:32 > 0:01:33and the downstream effect of that
0:01:33 > 0:01:35is to build this area
0:01:35 > 0:01:36of high pressure closer to home.
0:01:36 > 0:01:39And that will be a beneficial effect
0:01:39 > 0:01:40from Nicole to those areas
0:01:40 > 0:01:41underneath that high pressure,
0:01:41 > 0:01:43and that's the more western parts of the UK.
0:01:43 > 0:01:45The weather settling down here with lighter winds,
0:01:45 > 0:01:47mostly dry weather and hopefully some sunshine.
0:01:47 > 0:01:49Whereas closest to low pressure,
0:01:49 > 0:01:51out across the low countries here,
0:01:51 > 0:01:52we're going to have some showers,
0:01:52 > 0:01:54particularly in the east coast,
0:01:54 > 0:01:56a blustery wind and feeling quite chilly.
0:01:56 > 0:01:57Overnight later on this week,
0:01:57 > 0:01:59where the skies are clear, and that's most likely
0:01:59 > 0:02:02across western areas, so the map turns blue,
0:02:02 > 0:02:04yes, there will be some frost around and probably
0:02:04 > 0:02:05some patches of fog later on this week,
0:02:05 > 0:02:07which could be slow to clear.
0:02:07 > 0:02:09But once more it's these more northern and western
0:02:09 > 0:02:11parts on Thursday which will see the best
0:02:11 > 0:02:12of the dry and bright weather,
0:02:12 > 0:02:14again with light winds but still that brisk wind
0:02:14 > 0:02:16across eastern counties
0:02:16 > 0:02:18and still carrying some showers. So not very pleasant.
0:02:18 > 0:02:20So we end the week with those easterlies
0:02:20 > 0:02:23beginning to return around a low pressure
0:02:23 > 0:02:25in the near continent,
0:02:25 > 0:02:27the high pressure to the north and west.
0:02:27 > 0:02:30On Friday this is the way the chart looks -
0:02:30 > 0:02:32easterlies bringing showers along
0:02:32 > 0:02:33eastern coastal areas
0:02:33 > 0:02:35and some will spread a little inland.
0:02:35 > 0:02:37The best of the dry and bright weather looks
0:02:37 > 0:02:39like being further west
0:02:39 > 0:02:40but there will be some patches of fog overnight
0:02:40 > 0:02:42and some frost.
0:02:42 > 0:02:44Why are we having this peculiar October?
0:02:44 > 0:02:45It's all down to the jet stream
0:02:45 > 0:02:47and this normally meanders its way out
0:02:47 > 0:02:49of America and across the Atlantic
0:02:49 > 0:02:51but what we're seeing,
0:02:51 > 0:02:53and what we've seen quite a bit in recent weeks,
0:02:53 > 0:02:55is this jet starts to split.
0:02:55 > 0:02:57We get a split in the jet stream
0:02:57 > 0:02:59so the energy tends to split as well
0:02:59 > 0:03:02and that prevents these rain-bearing weather fronts
0:03:02 > 0:03:05from the Atlantic from making inroads into the UK.
0:03:05 > 0:03:07We're kind of back to square one now
0:03:07 > 0:03:09with surface easterly winds
0:03:09 > 0:03:11coming in across the country.
0:03:11 > 0:03:12Easterlies dominate once more
0:03:12 > 0:03:14through next weekend.
0:03:14 > 0:03:16It does look as if that's going to continue
0:03:16 > 0:03:18into the early part of next week with that jet stream blocked,
0:03:18 > 0:03:22those chilly easterly winds. Will the rain get in from the west?
0:03:22 > 0:03:25That is the big question mark. We'll keep a close eye on things
0:03:25 > 0:03:28and I'll be here to update you again this time tomorrow.