0:00:03 > 0:00:04It's been a bit of an odd month so far,
0:00:04 > 0:00:07not really following the normal pattern.
0:00:07 > 0:00:09We've had an absence of westerly winds,
0:00:09 > 0:00:12so areas that would normally be very wet at this time of the year,
0:00:12 > 0:00:15such as Stornoway, have had significantly less rainfall.
0:00:15 > 0:00:18It's been drier than average in Pershore as well.
0:00:18 > 0:00:20Further east we have had some showers.
0:00:20 > 0:00:23Some areas, such as Weybourne, have had more than average rainfall.
0:00:23 > 0:00:25But the showers have been hit and miss
0:00:25 > 0:00:27and they've been driven on by an easterly wind.
0:00:27 > 0:00:31Now, we start the week ahead with an easterly breeze,
0:00:31 > 0:00:33quite a chilly start as well.
0:00:33 > 0:00:36But from midweek onwards things will turn milder,
0:00:36 > 0:00:40less mist and fog and frost, because we'll get a westerly wind.
0:00:40 > 0:00:41We start Monday, though,
0:00:41 > 0:00:45with cloud across more southern parts of the UK with some outbreaks
0:00:45 > 0:00:48of showery rain across south-west Wales, south-west England.
0:00:48 > 0:00:50There's the threat of some torrential downpours
0:00:50 > 0:00:51and thunderstorms too.
0:00:51 > 0:00:53For northern England, Scotland and Northern Ireland,
0:00:53 > 0:00:55after that chilly start with some patchy fog
0:00:55 > 0:00:57there'll be some sunny spells.
0:00:57 > 0:00:59Fewer showers, lighter winds in eastern Scotland -
0:00:59 > 0:01:02the showers are really just bumping onto the coast.
0:01:02 > 0:01:04As we head through the evening, though,
0:01:04 > 0:01:06temperatures fall away quite sharply in the north
0:01:06 > 0:01:08with the clearer skies, a frost developing.
0:01:08 > 0:01:12Further south we hang onto enough cloud to keep the temperatures up,
0:01:12 > 0:01:14but as well as the frost, particularly in Scotland,
0:01:14 > 0:01:17we're going to find some patches of fog as well.
0:01:17 > 0:01:19Now, eventually we'll start to see some changes
0:01:19 > 0:01:23as these weather fronts encroach from the Atlantic.
0:01:23 > 0:01:25But pressure's quite high and there's really
0:01:25 > 0:01:28no wind to speak of for most of Tuesday.
0:01:28 > 0:01:31That's why we've got the frosty and foggy start for many northern areas.
0:01:31 > 0:01:34That fog may linger for most of the morning,
0:01:34 > 0:01:36but then we'll get some sunshine coming through.
0:01:36 > 0:01:38Further south the clouds should be thinner,
0:01:38 > 0:01:40the downpours having cleared away from the south-west.
0:01:40 > 0:01:41Most places will be dry.
0:01:41 > 0:01:4415 degrees, perhaps, across southern parts of the UK,
0:01:44 > 0:01:4711 or 12 in the north.
0:01:47 > 0:01:50Wednesday we start to see a change in the wind direction -
0:01:50 > 0:01:53a westerly arriving, much stronger across northern parts of the UK.
0:01:53 > 0:01:56This weather front not bringing an awful lot of rain but
0:01:56 > 0:01:59signalling a significant change with temperatures on the rise.
0:01:59 > 0:02:01Why is that happening?
0:02:01 > 0:02:04Look out to the other side of the Atlantic and off the eastern
0:02:04 > 0:02:07side of Canada there's a plunge of colder air.
0:02:07 > 0:02:11Ahead of that, closer to us, we've got warmer air aloft
0:02:11 > 0:02:14moving northwards, and the clash strengthens the jet stream.
0:02:14 > 0:02:17Really strong, the Atlantic jet stream
0:02:17 > 0:02:18developing from midweek onwards.
0:02:18 > 0:02:21The position of the jet means that to the south of it
0:02:21 > 0:02:23high pressure builds in,
0:02:23 > 0:02:26and that will dominate across more southern parts of the UK.
0:02:26 > 0:02:28To the north on Thursday there will still be some strong
0:02:28 > 0:02:31and really quite gusty winds and the chance of some rain
0:02:31 > 0:02:33mainly over the hills in the west of Scotland.
0:02:33 > 0:02:36For much of England and Wales it'll be dry and bright,
0:02:36 > 0:02:38a little sunshine, the winds lighter and those
0:02:38 > 0:02:42temperatures 13-16 degrees, so really quite mild.
0:02:42 > 0:02:44We've got those weather fronts on the scene across the north
0:02:44 > 0:02:49and north-west on Friday, higher pressure across England and Wales.
0:02:49 > 0:02:52Some patchy rain mainly for the hills of western Scotland.
0:02:52 > 0:02:54There will be more cloud for other western areas of the UK.
0:02:54 > 0:02:57Best of the sunshine in the east
0:02:57 > 0:03:00but above-average temperatures to end the week.
0:03:00 > 0:03:01It's high pressure...
0:03:01 > 0:03:04The position of high pressure that's really going to be crucial
0:03:04 > 0:03:05over the week ahead.
0:03:05 > 0:03:09The weekend sees high pressure building in across the UK,
0:03:09 > 0:03:10pushing the rain away towards the north-west.
0:03:10 > 0:03:12So again, it's dry, there may be some mist and fog
0:03:12 > 0:03:14and maybe a touch of frost perhaps
0:03:14 > 0:03:17where we've got those lighter winds and clear skies.
0:03:17 > 0:03:20Somehow, the high pressure looks like it's going to move away.
0:03:20 > 0:03:22There's differences in the computer models but there's
0:03:22 > 0:03:25a signal for the start of November to get a northerly wind,
0:03:25 > 0:03:27so much colder, perhaps some showers,
0:03:27 > 0:03:29some sunshine and maybe a touch of frost.