0:00:02 > 0:00:04We're less than two weeks now till the big day and if you're
0:00:04 > 0:00:07dreaming of a white Christmas, don't give up hope just yet.
0:00:07 > 0:00:08Things can change,
0:00:08 > 0:00:10but at the moment there's not much snow on the horizon.
0:00:10 > 0:00:13It's a fairly mild prospect with southerly winds coming up
0:00:13 > 0:00:16across the UK, those winds carrying some fronts too,
0:00:16 > 0:00:19so some rain around too over the next couple of days at least.
0:00:19 > 0:00:22But it is mild, as confirmed by the yellow colours
0:00:22 > 0:00:24across most of the UK as we start the day.
0:00:24 > 0:00:28Away, that is, from the far north of Scotland, where we've got a bit of
0:00:28 > 0:00:32blue on the map and a touch of frost across some northern Highland glens.
0:00:32 > 0:00:34But further south it's milder, it's also damper -
0:00:34 > 0:00:37that's the price we pay for central and southern parts of Scotland,
0:00:37 > 0:00:40Northern Ireland and down through the spine of England as well.
0:00:40 > 0:00:42Some bursts of rain around, nothing too persistent,
0:00:42 > 0:00:45but one or two quite heavy bursts just in time for the rush hour,
0:00:45 > 0:00:46actually, across the London area.
0:00:46 > 0:00:48Some fog up over the high levels as well,
0:00:48 > 0:00:50so not great driving conditions. Won't last forever, though -
0:00:50 > 0:00:52it's looking a bit drier following on behind across
0:00:52 > 0:00:55parts of Wales and the West Country. Hopefully some sunshine,
0:00:55 > 0:00:58hitting mild double figures as we start the day.
0:00:58 > 0:00:59As we go through Tuesday,
0:00:59 > 0:01:02everything drifts its way slowly northeastwards.
0:01:02 > 0:01:04Most of us will see a bit of dampness at some stage,
0:01:04 > 0:01:07but the north of Scotland stays dry and we've got this slice of
0:01:07 > 0:01:09brighter weather through central areas before more dampness
0:01:09 > 0:01:12turns up across parts of Wales and maybe the Midlands.
0:01:12 > 0:01:14Though getting the detail on that will be difficult,
0:01:14 > 0:01:17there will be some rain around. Mild 12 or 13 in the south
0:01:17 > 0:01:20and not as chilly as it has been further north.
0:01:20 > 0:01:22The mild theme continues into the middle of the week.
0:01:22 > 0:01:25We've got fronts strung out across western areas.
0:01:25 > 0:01:28They're trying to push east, but really failing cos they're
0:01:28 > 0:01:30coming up against a block of high pressure.
0:01:30 > 0:01:32That word block is quite important,
0:01:32 > 0:01:33I'll return to it later on in the broadcast.
0:01:33 > 0:01:35A bit of a west-east split, really -
0:01:35 > 0:01:37some pretty wet weather across parts of Northern Ireland,
0:01:37 > 0:01:39western fringes of England and Wales and a gusty wind,
0:01:39 > 0:01:42whereas further east we're going to start to draw in some drier air
0:01:42 > 0:01:44off the near continent, so increasing amounts of sunshine.
0:01:44 > 0:01:47Looks like a nice day, actually, across many central and
0:01:47 > 0:01:51eastern areas and double-figure temperatures just about nationwide.
0:01:51 > 0:01:54So, through the rest of this week that mild theme continues.
0:01:54 > 0:01:56I think the cloudier skies will return.
0:01:56 > 0:01:58Limited brightness, and there'll be further rain
0:01:58 > 0:02:00across more western parts of the country
0:02:00 > 0:02:02as further fronts try to come in off the Atlantic,
0:02:02 > 0:02:05but again, they're going to grind to a halt because they come up
0:02:05 > 0:02:08against that block of high pressure. And eventually
0:02:08 > 0:02:10the high pressure takes over as we hit the weekend,
0:02:10 > 0:02:13so I'm optimistic, actually, that we'll see rather more
0:02:13 > 0:02:15in the way of sunshine as we hit the weekend.
0:02:15 > 0:02:17Maybe some dampness clearing away from the south-east,
0:02:17 > 0:02:20maybe some dampness across the far north-west, but in between,
0:02:20 > 0:02:22plenty of fine and crisp weather if you're out and about
0:02:22 > 0:02:24buying a Christmas tree, for example.
0:02:24 > 0:02:25Temperatures not just as high,
0:02:25 > 0:02:27so despite some blue sky and sunshine you'll probably need
0:02:27 > 0:02:32a few layers, and overnight we could well see some frost returning.
0:02:32 > 0:02:34Now, what about the jet stream? What's it up to?
0:02:34 > 0:02:37Over the last couple of weeks it's been rather more active but,
0:02:37 > 0:02:40as we've hinted at over the last couple of weeks, from kind of
0:02:40 > 0:02:44mid-month onwards we were expecting a block to develop again,
0:02:44 > 0:02:46preventing those fronts coming in off the Atlantic
0:02:46 > 0:02:49and high pressure becoming dominant once more.
0:02:49 > 0:02:51And certainly through the early part of next week,
0:02:51 > 0:02:54underneath that high pressure, nearly all of us will be dry.
0:02:54 > 0:02:56That's the easy bit.
0:02:56 > 0:02:59Now, dry weather does not necessarily mean sunny weather,
0:02:59 > 0:03:02that's the catch, because underneath that high there could be a fair
0:03:02 > 0:03:06bit of moisture trapped, so some low cloud, perhaps some fog around.
0:03:06 > 0:03:09But by the same token we could see some clearer areas,
0:03:09 > 0:03:12which means frosty nights and also some sunshine by day.
0:03:12 > 0:03:14I'm not going to kid you - getting that detail right
0:03:14 > 0:03:15at this range will not be easy,
0:03:15 > 0:03:18we're more confident about the mostly dry theme.
0:03:18 > 0:03:21Certainly that's the story later on next week, with that crisp weather.
0:03:21 > 0:03:24Snow unlikely, but as we approach Christmas
0:03:24 > 0:03:26we could again see some changes.
0:03:26 > 0:03:28Jay Wynne will update you again tomorrow.