0:00:02 > 0:00:04Hello. Want to know what the weather is going to do on Christmas Day?
0:00:04 > 0:00:06Well, you've come to the wrong place.
0:00:06 > 0:00:07No, it's not quite as bad as that
0:00:07 > 0:00:10but Christmas is still nine or ten days away
0:00:10 > 0:00:12and a lot can change weather-wise in that period of time,
0:00:12 > 0:00:15but we are beginning to firm up our ideas so stay tuned for that.
0:00:15 > 0:00:18At the moment we've got mild air wafting up from the south,
0:00:18 > 0:00:19we've got a front across some western areas
0:00:19 > 0:00:20bringing some rain initially
0:00:20 > 0:00:22across Northern Ireland,
0:00:22 > 0:00:23pushing into Scotland
0:00:23 > 0:00:24during the course of the day
0:00:24 > 0:00:25and some western fringes
0:00:25 > 0:00:26of England and Wales.
0:00:26 > 0:00:27But on either side of that,
0:00:27 > 0:00:29it's dry, a lot of cloud
0:00:29 > 0:00:30for England and Wales,
0:00:30 > 0:00:31limited brightness here,
0:00:31 > 0:00:33some late sunshine, though,
0:00:33 > 0:00:34developing across Northern Ireland.
0:00:34 > 0:00:35Another mild day,
0:00:35 > 0:00:38temperatures 9, 10, 11 degrees, typically.
0:00:38 > 0:00:39Now, as we head into Friday night,
0:00:39 > 0:00:41a lot's going to depend on the track
0:00:41 > 0:00:43of this weather front as it topples down
0:00:43 > 0:00:44out of Scotland and Northern Ireland
0:00:44 > 0:00:46and into England and Wales,
0:00:46 > 0:00:47because, behind that,
0:00:47 > 0:00:48the skies begin to clear
0:00:48 > 0:00:49and under the clearest of the skies,
0:00:49 > 0:00:51the temperatures will fall quite quickly
0:00:51 > 0:00:53across Northern Ireland, Scotland
0:00:53 > 0:00:55and perhaps northern England.
0:00:55 > 0:00:57You could well wake up to scenes like this.
0:00:57 > 0:00:59Yes, a change in the weather.
0:00:59 > 0:01:00A frost around.
0:01:00 > 0:01:02Now the southern extent of that frost
0:01:02 > 0:01:03a little bit uncertain.
0:01:03 > 0:01:05It does look as though southern areas
0:01:05 > 0:01:06will probably start the day on Saturday
0:01:06 > 0:01:07with a lot of cloud
0:01:07 > 0:01:09and perhaps some areas of fog,
0:01:09 > 0:01:11whereas further north it'll be clear and crisp
0:01:11 > 0:01:12with the best of the sunshine,
0:01:12 > 0:01:14but not as mild as it has been.
0:01:14 > 0:01:16Temperatures here at 6s and 7s,
0:01:16 > 0:01:18relatively mild still further south,
0:01:18 > 0:01:20up into double figures in one or two places.
0:01:20 > 0:01:22High pressure keeps things quiet
0:01:22 > 0:01:24across the south as we go into Sunday.
0:01:24 > 0:01:27But a change in the weather further north, we're going to see
0:01:27 > 0:01:28a front introducing south-westerly winds,
0:01:28 > 0:01:30milder south-westerly winds,
0:01:30 > 0:01:32so temperatures bounce back up again
0:01:32 > 0:01:34across northern parts of the UK
0:01:34 > 0:01:36and in one or two sheltered areas, for example,
0:01:36 > 0:01:37in north-east Scotland,
0:01:37 > 0:01:39we could get as high as, what,
0:01:39 > 0:01:4011, 12, 13 degrees.
0:01:40 > 0:01:42Further south, not as mild,
0:01:42 > 0:01:45but probably a bit more cloud around here.
0:01:45 > 0:01:46Quiet again on Monday
0:01:46 > 0:01:48with high pressure mostly in control.
0:01:48 > 0:01:49We've a trailing weather front
0:01:49 > 0:01:50across the far north,
0:01:50 > 0:01:52a pretty weak feature,
0:01:52 > 0:01:53producing the odd spots of rain,
0:01:53 > 0:01:56but otherwise a lot of dry weather.
0:01:56 > 0:01:57A fair bit of cloud, they'll be some
0:01:57 > 0:01:59lingering fog patches around too,
0:01:59 > 0:02:01so perhaps not all that much
0:02:01 > 0:02:02in the way of sunshine
0:02:02 > 0:02:04and temperatures generally a little bit cooler
0:02:04 > 0:02:05than they have been
0:02:05 > 0:02:06and that cooling trend
0:02:06 > 0:02:08continues into Tuesday, actually.
0:02:08 > 0:02:10Where the fog lingers, it could be quite
0:02:10 > 0:02:12a chilly day with highs
0:02:12 > 0:02:14of no more than, what, 5 or 6 degrees.
0:02:14 > 0:02:17You'll notice up to the north-west, though,
0:02:17 > 0:02:18and area of rain arriving
0:02:18 > 0:02:20and that could well be a sign
0:02:20 > 0:02:22of a change in the weather
0:02:22 > 0:02:23later on in the week -
0:02:23 > 0:02:26the first of a set of weather fronts
0:02:26 > 0:02:27coming in off the Atlantic.
0:02:27 > 0:02:30In fact, let's go the other side of the Atlantic
0:02:30 > 0:02:33to find the source of this potential game changer.
0:02:33 > 0:02:36This was the scene on Thursday in Buffalo, New York.
0:02:36 > 0:02:39Blizzard conditions with temperatures of minus 10 degrees.
0:02:39 > 0:02:42Now these sorts of conditions are not heading in our direction,
0:02:42 > 0:02:44but indirectly could have an impact
0:02:44 > 0:02:46on our weather as we approach Christmas.
0:02:46 > 0:02:50We're going to see lobes of Arctic air coming down across
0:02:50 > 0:02:52North America during the course of this weekend
0:02:52 > 0:02:55meeting warm tropical air coming up from the south
0:02:55 > 0:02:57and where the two clash,
0:02:57 > 0:02:59that tends to supercharge the jet stream.
0:02:59 > 0:03:03The jet stream driving across the Atlantic as we approach Christmas
0:03:03 > 0:03:04and with a strong jet stream,
0:03:04 > 0:03:07we tend to get much more active weather systems,
0:03:07 > 0:03:12wind and rain, and at this stage it looks more likely that as we go
0:03:12 > 0:03:16into Christmas weekend, that these sort of scenes will occur.
0:03:16 > 0:03:18A lot of wind and rain,
0:03:18 > 0:03:22less likely are scenes like this with frosts and snow.
0:03:22 > 0:03:25Well, it's an outside bet at this stage,
0:03:25 > 0:03:28but things can change and I will update you again this time tomorrow.