17/12/2016

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0:00:02 > 0:00:05Hello. I'm sure sledges aren't flying off the shelves,

0:00:05 > 0:00:08it's been so mild, but a week is a long time in weather,

0:00:08 > 0:00:10and it's still well over a week till Christmas,

0:00:10 > 0:00:13and much can change, so stay tuned. Certainly a chilly start

0:00:13 > 0:00:16to the weekend across some northern parts of the UK,

0:00:16 > 0:00:19under clear skies, a touch of frost, but here the best of the sunshine.

0:00:19 > 0:00:21Although the far northern isles will be quite windy,

0:00:21 > 0:00:23with one or two quite blustery showers.

0:00:23 > 0:00:24Persistent cloud, though,

0:00:24 > 0:00:26across some southern and eastern parts of England.

0:00:26 > 0:00:29Here, though, the mildest weather, up into double figures.

0:00:29 > 0:00:31A fresher feel further north -

0:00:31 > 0:00:336s and 7s, quite a crisp-feeling day.

0:00:33 > 0:00:36We'll see a change in the weather across Scotland overnight -

0:00:36 > 0:00:39a splash of rain on that wind moving west to east.

0:00:39 > 0:00:42At the other end of the UK, fog could again be a hazard,

0:00:42 > 0:00:43with some areas of frost as well,

0:00:43 > 0:00:45particularly across some central areas,

0:00:45 > 0:00:47so you could see scenes like this on Sunday morning.

0:00:47 > 0:00:50Where you wake up to fog, it could linger well on into the day,

0:00:50 > 0:00:52keeping the temperatures down.

0:00:52 > 0:00:54Hopefully some sunshine where you are,

0:00:54 > 0:00:57although there will still be some persistent areas of cloud

0:00:57 > 0:00:58across some southern counties.

0:00:58 > 0:01:00The early rain across Scotland should clear away

0:01:00 > 0:01:03and a milder wind for Northern Ireland and Scotland coming in

0:01:03 > 0:01:05from the south-west, so temperatures bouncing back up.

0:01:05 > 0:01:07We could reach 13, 14, maybe 15 degrees

0:01:07 > 0:01:09across the far north-east of Scotland.

0:01:09 > 0:01:11Chillier further south,

0:01:11 > 0:01:13particularly where that fog lingers on.

0:01:13 > 0:01:17And we could have similar problems with fog on Monday morning -

0:01:17 > 0:01:18another chilly start to the day,

0:01:18 > 0:01:22in fact, temperatures will be lower than they have been for many of us.

0:01:22 > 0:01:24Another weather front approaching the far north-west

0:01:24 > 0:01:27will bring some patchy rain, but that front is going nowhere fast.

0:01:27 > 0:01:29It's quite a weak affair.

0:01:29 > 0:01:31High pressure remains in control for many of us

0:01:31 > 0:01:33as we go into Tuesday, but day on day,

0:01:33 > 0:01:36temperatures just easing down a bit. It'll start to feel quite chilly

0:01:36 > 0:01:38with a feed in off the near continent

0:01:38 > 0:01:40across some southern areas,

0:01:40 > 0:01:44and again, some frost and some fog around first thing

0:01:44 > 0:01:46across some southern and central parts of the UK in particular.

0:01:46 > 0:01:49Rain looming across the far north-west,

0:01:49 > 0:01:51and that's going to herald a change in the weather

0:01:51 > 0:01:54because although through the early part of next week

0:01:54 > 0:01:56it'll be dry with those chilly conditions,

0:01:56 > 0:01:58rain looks like turning up around about midweek -

0:01:58 > 0:02:00quite a substantial change in the weather.

0:02:00 > 0:02:02If you were watching yesterday,

0:02:02 > 0:02:04I mentioned these lobes of cold Arctic air

0:02:04 > 0:02:08pushing down across North America through this weekend,

0:02:08 > 0:02:09some really bitter weather here

0:02:09 > 0:02:12as the cold air meets warm tropical air

0:02:12 > 0:02:13coming up from the Gulf of Mexico.

0:02:13 > 0:02:16That kind of supercharges the jet stream

0:02:16 > 0:02:19and the jet stream is what delivers our weather systems

0:02:19 > 0:02:22across the Atlantic, and as the jet stream gets stronger,

0:02:22 > 0:02:24so those weather systems become more active,

0:02:24 > 0:02:26and that means wind and rain.

0:02:26 > 0:02:29The first really active feature coming in from the west

0:02:29 > 0:02:31during the course of Wednesday.

0:02:31 > 0:02:33Now, the timing of this is a little bit uncertain,

0:02:33 > 0:02:35but after a dry start,

0:02:35 > 0:02:38expect some rain to be moving its way west to east

0:02:38 > 0:02:41across the country during the course of the day on Wednesday,

0:02:41 > 0:02:43though it might stay dry across some southern and eastern areas.

0:02:43 > 0:02:47Pretty chilly too, particularly as that wind and rain arrive

0:02:47 > 0:02:49from the west during the course of the day.

0:02:49 > 0:02:50Now our thoughts turn to Christmas.

0:02:50 > 0:02:53Computer models run several times a day,

0:02:53 > 0:02:56and at the moment, most of them are indicating that

0:02:56 > 0:02:59those active frontal systems will bring some rain and some wind

0:02:59 > 0:03:01through the Christmas period.

0:03:01 > 0:03:03However, in between those weather systems,

0:03:03 > 0:03:05it could well be chilly enough for some frost,

0:03:05 > 0:03:10and we could see some sunshine. That's less likely at the moment,

0:03:10 > 0:03:11though things can change.

0:03:11 > 0:03:15An outside bet is that the air will be cold enough

0:03:15 > 0:03:17to turn some of the rain to snow.

0:03:17 > 0:03:20Now, most of the computer models are not indicating this,

0:03:20 > 0:03:22but one or two are, as you can see.

0:03:22 > 0:03:26So all is not lost if you're dreaming of a white Christmas.

0:03:26 > 0:03:28We will update you again tomorrow.