0:00:02 > 0:00:05Hello. December has been very mild so far, though it's turned chillier.
0:00:05 > 0:00:09What will the new year bring us? Stay tuned for my thoughts on that.
0:00:09 > 0:00:11Storm Conor has now blown away north-eastwards,
0:00:11 > 0:00:15and high pressure is taking over, settling the weather down,
0:00:15 > 0:00:18although that high pressure is going to cause some problems of its
0:00:18 > 0:00:20own, as we'll see in a moment.
0:00:20 > 0:00:22A very frosty start to the day across much of England and Wales,
0:00:22 > 0:00:25and a few pockets of frost further north-west,
0:00:25 > 0:00:27but here rather more cloud for Northern Ireland and Scotland
0:00:27 > 0:00:30and still the odd shower across the west of Scotland on the breeze,
0:00:30 > 0:00:33though the wind nothing like as strong as it was on Boxing Day.
0:00:33 > 0:00:36Light winds further south, lots of sunshine, but never all that warm.
0:00:36 > 0:00:39Briefly around six or seven degrees early afternoon, before those
0:00:39 > 0:00:42temperatures fall away very sharply as we head into the evening.
0:00:42 > 0:00:46Another hard frost developing, and under this area of high pressure,
0:00:46 > 0:00:48fog patches are going to develop,
0:00:48 > 0:00:50and through the middle of the week, I think fog is going to be
0:00:50 > 0:00:53a real issue across England and Wales in particular.
0:00:53 > 0:00:57And with people on the move between Christmas and New Year, I'm afraid
0:00:57 > 0:01:01I'm expecting some disruption from those dense fog patches.
0:01:01 > 0:01:03Certainly quite widespread, the fog, across England and Wales,
0:01:03 > 0:01:05on Wednesday morning.
0:01:05 > 0:01:08Not everywhere, but expect it if you are on the move.
0:01:08 > 0:01:10Much of that fog will thin away, but some of it won't,
0:01:10 > 0:01:12otherwise plenty of sunshine.
0:01:12 > 0:01:14Again for Northern Ireland and Scotland,
0:01:14 > 0:01:17more cloud around and some showers across Western Scotland
0:01:17 > 0:01:21primarily on the breeze. Relatively mild here, touching double figures.
0:01:21 > 0:01:25But further south, despite a lot of sunshine, it will feel quite chilly,
0:01:25 > 0:01:29and that'll particularly be the case where those fog patches linger.
0:01:29 > 0:01:32And I'm expecting that to happen in some places across parts of
0:01:32 > 0:01:34the Midlands and some southern counties.
0:01:34 > 0:01:37The fog could well stick around all day long, and where that does
0:01:37 > 0:01:42happen, don't expect temperatures to get much above freezing all day.
0:01:42 > 0:01:45And again, by Thursday, more fog around,
0:01:45 > 0:01:47particularly closest to that area of high pressure,
0:01:47 > 0:01:49for parts of England and Wales, keeping it especially chilly.
0:01:49 > 0:01:52A bit more breeze again across Northern Ireland and Scotland,
0:01:52 > 0:01:54particularly across the far north-west,
0:01:54 > 0:01:56with the threat of some patchy rain here,
0:01:56 > 0:01:59but once more relatively mild here compared with further south,
0:01:59 > 0:02:02especially where those fog patches linger.
0:02:02 > 0:02:06As we go from Thursday into Friday, no huge changes,
0:02:06 > 0:02:10but you'll notice this weather front approaching the far north-west.
0:02:10 > 0:02:12That brings some more persistent rain to the
0:02:12 > 0:02:14north-west of Scotland on a strengthening wind.
0:02:14 > 0:02:17The breeze will begin to pick up further south,
0:02:17 > 0:02:19but I don't think it's going to prevent fog from forming again.
0:02:19 > 0:02:23It could be an issue in some places all through the day on Friday,
0:02:23 > 0:02:25keeping it especially chilly.
0:02:25 > 0:02:27Now, that weather front across the far north-west is going to
0:02:27 > 0:02:30start to get its act together as we hit the weekend.
0:02:30 > 0:02:33It's going to start to edge its way further south-eastwards,
0:02:33 > 0:02:35and some fairly heavy rain on that, as well, on
0:02:35 > 0:02:40a strengthening wind, so potentially a wet and windy New Year's Eve here.
0:02:40 > 0:02:43Further south and east, again it'll be dry, but enough of a breeze,
0:02:43 > 0:02:47I think, to shift that fog at long last.
0:02:47 > 0:02:50Now, the big picture shows that front straddled across the
0:02:50 > 0:02:51north-west on New Year's Eve.
0:02:51 > 0:02:54It's an important front, it's a cold front,
0:02:54 > 0:02:58and behind that we're going to see a shot of cold Arctic air actually
0:02:58 > 0:03:02flooding down across the whole of the country through New Year's Day.
0:03:02 > 0:03:05And that's all being geared by a kink in the jet stream.
0:03:05 > 0:03:09You see the extent of that kink as we look at the northern hemisphere.
0:03:09 > 0:03:13And when you get a kink in the jet stream that big,
0:03:13 > 0:03:17it tends to prevent westerly winds from coming in, so the pattern
0:03:17 > 0:03:20is kind of blocked, and what you've got you're likely to keep.
0:03:20 > 0:03:21And through early January,
0:03:21 > 0:03:24the first few days at least, that does mean some cold weather
0:03:24 > 0:03:26with some fairly widespread frost around, as well.
0:03:26 > 0:03:28I'll update you again tomorrow.