29/12/2016

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0:00:02 > 0:00:04Hello. The weather's set to show various sides to its personality

0:00:04 > 0:00:05over the next week to ten days.

0:00:05 > 0:00:07There's some heavy rain, some snow in the forecast,

0:00:07 > 0:00:08but in the short term,

0:00:08 > 0:00:11it's all about the frost and the fog in particular.

0:00:11 > 0:00:12As you may be aware,

0:00:12 > 0:00:14the fog's already had an impact in some areas, I'm afraid.

0:00:14 > 0:00:15As we go into Thursday,

0:00:15 > 0:00:18further disruption is likely to your travel plans.

0:00:18 > 0:00:20Check out you BBC local radio station for all the latest updates.

0:00:20 > 0:00:23There are warnings in force from the Met Office

0:00:23 > 0:00:26for a good chunk of England and east Wales as well.

0:00:26 > 0:00:28Some areas will enjoy some sunshine -

0:00:28 > 0:00:29for example, around some coastal areas,

0:00:29 > 0:00:31and, for Northern Ireland and Scotland,

0:00:31 > 0:00:32relatively benign -

0:00:32 > 0:00:35although there will be some dampness across the far north-west.

0:00:35 > 0:00:37Quite mild here, up in the double figures.

0:00:37 > 0:00:39Elsewhere, a few places will turn pleasant,

0:00:39 > 0:00:43but chilly-ish in other areas, mid-single figures -

0:00:43 > 0:00:45and, as we saw during the course of Wednesday,

0:00:45 > 0:00:47where that fog sits around all day long,

0:00:47 > 0:00:50and it will do across some central and eastern counties,

0:00:50 > 0:00:53so temperatures will struggle to get above freezing

0:00:53 > 0:00:55all day long, so, very cold here.

0:00:55 > 0:00:58The fog reforms again as we head into the evening,

0:00:58 > 0:00:59becomes more extensive for a time,

0:00:59 > 0:01:01but, as we get into Friday,

0:01:01 > 0:01:04I think it'll start to lift up into low cloud.

0:01:04 > 0:01:06It'll still be shrouding some of the hills,

0:01:06 > 0:01:08but visibilities at lower levels will be somewhat better.

0:01:08 > 0:01:10Meanwhile, a front arrives across the north-west,

0:01:10 > 0:01:12which will bring some more persistent

0:01:12 > 0:01:13and, at times, heavy rain.

0:01:13 > 0:01:15That's going to stick around for a couple of days

0:01:15 > 0:01:16and cause some problems.

0:01:16 > 0:01:17Some very mild air in advance of that

0:01:17 > 0:01:19across parts of Scotland and Northern Ireland,

0:01:19 > 0:01:21widely up into double figures.

0:01:21 > 0:01:23Not as chilly as it has been further south.

0:01:23 > 0:01:26That front is still there on New Year's Eve,

0:01:26 > 0:01:27so, further heavy and persistent rain

0:01:27 > 0:01:28across the north-west,

0:01:28 > 0:01:31gradually starting to head its way southwards.

0:01:31 > 0:01:32At long last some milder air

0:01:32 > 0:01:35pushing into southern areas on the breeze,

0:01:35 > 0:01:36but only briefly,

0:01:36 > 0:01:38because this front, a cold front,

0:01:38 > 0:01:39heads southwards on New Year's Day.

0:01:39 > 0:01:42Some question mark about how quickly it clears away.

0:01:42 > 0:01:43A spell of heavy rain.

0:01:43 > 0:01:46That clears through and opens the door

0:01:46 > 0:01:47to another shot of arctic air,

0:01:47 > 0:01:50and that does mean that the showers across Scotland

0:01:50 > 0:01:51will start to turn to snow,

0:01:51 > 0:01:53even at quite low levels, actually.

0:01:53 > 0:01:56For the rest of us, once that front has cleared away on New Year's Day,

0:01:56 > 0:01:58as I say, there's a bit of a question mark,

0:01:58 > 0:01:59then the sun will come out -

0:01:59 > 0:02:02but it will feel cold in that wind.

0:02:02 > 0:02:04That's the story through the early part of next week.

0:02:04 > 0:02:07It's going to feel chilly again on Monday.

0:02:07 > 0:02:10Plenty of sunshine around, after a frosty start.

0:02:10 > 0:02:11A good few of us will stay dry -

0:02:11 > 0:02:14but further sleet and snow showers accumulating snow,

0:02:14 > 0:02:15particularly up over the high ground

0:02:15 > 0:02:17of northern Scotland - but elsewhere,

0:02:17 > 0:02:19where you're exposed to that wind,

0:02:19 > 0:02:21you might see a dusting of snow

0:02:21 > 0:02:23and widespread frosts overnight.

0:02:23 > 0:02:25It'll start to cloud over, though, with time.

0:02:25 > 0:02:27As we look towards Tuesday,

0:02:27 > 0:02:30fronts beginning to come in from the north-west.

0:02:30 > 0:02:31Now, there's a big question mark

0:02:31 > 0:02:33about how quickly that happens

0:02:33 > 0:02:36and whether anything comes out of those clouds,

0:02:36 > 0:02:37but a cloudier prospect

0:02:37 > 0:02:40as we head towards the middle of the week,

0:02:40 > 0:02:43and, briefly, a milder one, as well.

0:02:43 > 0:02:45A little area of yellow pushing in.

0:02:45 > 0:02:46It's not going to be VERY mild,

0:02:46 > 0:02:48but just not as cold as it will be

0:02:48 > 0:02:50at the start of the week.

0:02:50 > 0:02:52Now, what happens after that

0:02:52 > 0:02:55is causing the computer models some issues.

0:02:55 > 0:02:57The boundary between the mild and the cold

0:02:57 > 0:02:59is marked by the jet stream.

0:02:59 > 0:03:01If we pull out and look at the northern hemisphere,

0:03:01 > 0:03:03you'll see various ripples in the jet stream,

0:03:03 > 0:03:05various troughs and ridge,

0:03:05 > 0:03:06and the behaviour of these,

0:03:06 > 0:03:08perhaps as far afield as the Pacific,

0:03:08 > 0:03:10will have a downstream effect

0:03:10 > 0:03:13on the behaviour of the jet stream closer to home.

0:03:13 > 0:03:14At this stage, though,

0:03:14 > 0:03:17despite all the conflicting signals from the models,

0:03:17 > 0:03:20the best bet is that after that milder interlude,

0:03:20 > 0:03:24it starts to turn colder again towards the end of next week,

0:03:24 > 0:03:25with a renewed chance

0:03:25 > 0:03:27of some frost and some snow.

0:03:27 > 0:03:28We'll update you again tomorrow.