0:00:00 > 0:00:03Hello. How's the winter been for you so far?
0:00:03 > 0:00:07Mild for the most part, a few colder spells with some fog and frost,
0:00:07 > 0:00:09but not much rain.
0:00:09 > 0:00:11In fact, that theme extends back to the autumn.
0:00:11 > 0:00:14This chart shows rainfall for autumn,
0:00:14 > 0:00:17the brown colours indicating below average rainfall,
0:00:17 > 0:00:20and as you can see, most of the UK had a dry autumn.
0:00:20 > 0:00:23And that has continued into the early part of the winter
0:00:23 > 0:00:24as well - again, in December,
0:00:24 > 0:00:29the majority of the UK coloured brown, with a few exceptions.
0:00:29 > 0:00:32And it remains mostly dry through January as well.
0:00:32 > 0:00:34And that is because the jetstream,
0:00:34 > 0:00:36which tends to carry our rain-bearing weather fronts,
0:00:36 > 0:00:40has been deflected for much of this winter away from our shores.
0:00:40 > 0:00:43And in its place, high pressure has been the dominant force,
0:00:43 > 0:00:45if you like, through the last few weeks.
0:00:45 > 0:00:48It's still there, underneath that area of high pressure,
0:00:48 > 0:00:50with quite light winds,
0:00:50 > 0:00:52that has allowed fog to form in recent nights and lingering
0:00:52 > 0:00:54into the day, and that is the case again,
0:00:54 > 0:00:57we've got freezing fog around with a possibility of some disruption,
0:00:57 > 0:01:00particularly across these more southern and eastern parts
0:01:00 > 0:01:02of the UK, where the winds are lightest.
0:01:02 > 0:01:06The fog gradually lifting into cloud, not so much sunshine
0:01:06 > 0:01:08around, as we saw during Tuesday, it will feel chillier.
0:01:08 > 0:01:11Best of the sunshine further north and west across England and Wales.
0:01:11 > 0:01:14But I'm afraid it will feel distinctly chilly across
0:01:14 > 0:01:15the more southern and eastern areas.
0:01:15 > 0:01:17On Tuesday, some places reach ten degrees,
0:01:17 > 0:01:20three or four might be the best I can offer you on Wednesday
0:01:20 > 0:01:23afternoon, with perhaps the odd light snow flurry.
0:01:23 > 0:01:25As I say, the best of the sunshine across England and Wales
0:01:25 > 0:01:28will be further north and west, a decent day here.
0:01:28 > 0:01:30For Scotland and Northern Ireland, cloudier but milder here,
0:01:30 > 0:01:33nine or ten Celsius, with some patchy rain,
0:01:33 > 0:01:36particularly across the far north-west of Scotland.
0:01:36 > 0:01:40But as we head into Thursday, we will start to draw air in
0:01:40 > 0:01:43around that high pressure from a very cold source indeed,
0:01:43 > 0:01:47the heart of Europe, which has been freezing for some days now.
0:01:47 > 0:01:50This air will have a real bite to it by the time it reaches
0:01:50 > 0:01:52our shores on Thursday.
0:01:52 > 0:01:55It's going to feel really quite raw, I think, in that wind.
0:01:55 > 0:01:58The odd snow flurry, but a lot of dry weather out there.
0:01:58 > 0:02:00But the main theme will be the chill,
0:02:00 > 0:02:03and temperatures in some places across more central and
0:02:03 > 0:02:06eastern parts of the UK will struggle to get above freezing.
0:02:06 > 0:02:09If you add on the wind, then it's going to feel a lot colder
0:02:09 > 0:02:12than that, despite the fact that many of us will see some sunshine.
0:02:12 > 0:02:16But into Friday, still pretty chilly out there in the wind,
0:02:16 > 0:02:18especially across the more northern and eastern areas.
0:02:18 > 0:02:21Turning a little bit milder further south and west.
0:02:21 > 0:02:24A bit of patchy rain around, though no great amounts.
0:02:24 > 0:02:26And actually, as we go into the weekend,
0:02:26 > 0:02:29weather fronts will try to stagger in off the Atlantic.
0:02:29 > 0:02:33The timing of these features and the position of the rain,
0:02:33 > 0:02:34difficult to nail down.
0:02:34 > 0:02:37So, don't take the position of these blobs of blue too literally.
0:02:37 > 0:02:40There will be some rain around through this weekend,
0:02:40 > 0:02:44and on balance, it will start to turn a little bit milder as well.
0:02:44 > 0:02:47Some places getting up into double figures again on Sunday.
0:02:47 > 0:02:49There could be a bit of patchy rain making its way across
0:02:49 > 0:02:51to eastern areas, but still a lot of dry weather.
0:02:51 > 0:02:53The winds will be fairly light,
0:02:53 > 0:02:56temperatures somewhat higher than they have been recently.
0:02:56 > 0:02:59Looking further ahead
0:02:59 > 0:03:00as we end the month,
0:03:00 > 0:03:02we're going to see the jetstream
0:03:02 > 0:03:04try to wake up and try to push
0:03:04 > 0:03:06weather systems in off the Atlantic,
0:03:06 > 0:03:08but they have been trying to do that
0:03:08 > 0:03:10for some days now, and the computer
0:03:10 > 0:03:12models have been a bit premature in
0:03:12 > 0:03:13spreading rain across the country.
0:03:13 > 0:03:15So, this comes with
0:03:15 > 0:03:16a little bit of a health warning.
0:03:16 > 0:03:18If the jet does succeed through
0:03:18 > 0:03:19the early part of February,
0:03:19 > 0:03:20we'll see some rain,
0:03:20 > 0:03:22but if it continues to be blocked,
0:03:22 > 0:03:24and there is some chance it will do,
0:03:24 > 0:03:25then it remains dry
0:03:25 > 0:03:26with some frost and some fog.
0:03:26 > 0:03:30Big question marks, we will update you again tomorrow.