0:00:02 > 0:00:03Good evening.
0:00:03 > 0:00:04This time yesterday, John was explaining
0:00:04 > 0:00:06how dry it's been in the last couple of months,
0:00:06 > 0:00:09and that's because we've had high pressure close by.
0:00:09 > 0:00:11A blocked weather pattern.
0:00:11 > 0:00:13That means that the jet stream across the UK
0:00:13 > 0:00:14is quite weak.
0:00:14 > 0:00:16It's diving to the south,
0:00:16 > 0:00:17that's where the strength is,
0:00:17 > 0:00:19pushing the low pressures across Iberia
0:00:19 > 0:00:20and into the Mediterranean,
0:00:20 > 0:00:22whilst the high pressure across Europe
0:00:22 > 0:00:24is blocking the passage of weather fronts,
0:00:24 > 0:00:26which bring out wind and bring our rain.
0:00:26 > 0:00:28So, again, we go into Thursday
0:00:28 > 0:00:29with this blocked weather situation.
0:00:29 > 0:00:32We've got a southeasterly continental air flow,
0:00:32 > 0:00:33which is bringing in colder air
0:00:33 > 0:00:35than we had on Wednesday and hill fog,
0:00:35 > 0:00:36as opposed to low level fog.
0:00:36 > 0:00:38So still pretty grey
0:00:38 > 0:00:40for most of us first thing, and cold.
0:00:40 > 0:00:42Colder, I think, than Wednesday morning.
0:00:42 > 0:00:44It'll stay quite grey for much of the day,
0:00:44 > 0:00:47but temperatures out in the countryside first thing
0:00:47 > 0:00:49will be pretty low, -3, -4.
0:00:49 > 0:00:51Because the cloud is quite thick,
0:00:51 > 0:00:53it's giving us already a little bit of drizzle,
0:00:53 > 0:00:54a little bit of snow.
0:00:54 > 0:00:56Snow graze, not a great deal to amount to,
0:00:56 > 0:00:59but, nevertheless, giving us some quite icy conditions
0:00:59 > 0:01:01on untreated roads and pavements.
0:01:01 > 0:01:02Through the day, little changes.
0:01:02 > 0:01:04Under that cloud, it really will feel cold.
0:01:04 > 0:01:06The best chance of some sunshine
0:01:06 > 0:01:08is to the north-west of Scotland,
0:01:08 > 0:01:09and later in the south.
0:01:09 > 0:01:10But temperatures where we've got the cloud
0:01:10 > 0:01:12barely get above freezing.
0:01:12 > 0:01:13You add on the wind,
0:01:13 > 0:01:15which will be stronger on Thursday,
0:01:15 > 0:01:17and it will feel much colder.
0:01:17 > 0:01:20Now there's a subtle wind direction change on Friday
0:01:20 > 0:01:22from instead of that southeasterly,
0:01:22 > 0:01:24we get more of a southerly off the Bay of Biscay.
0:01:24 > 0:01:25Still quite a strong wind,
0:01:25 > 0:01:27but it means it will be marginally less cold.
0:01:27 > 0:01:29Still cold enough, I think, initially
0:01:29 > 0:01:30for a smattering of snow
0:01:30 > 0:01:32through the first part of Friday in southern areas,
0:01:32 > 0:01:34eastern areas too.
0:01:34 > 0:01:37Primarily, we start to see some heavier showers
0:01:37 > 0:01:39coming into the west as the day progresses.
0:01:39 > 0:01:41So perhaps the start of a change -
0:01:41 > 0:01:43our first weather front to come
0:01:43 > 0:01:45knocking on the door of that high pressure again
0:01:45 > 0:01:48and trying to move it out of the way.
0:01:48 > 0:01:49Actually, it looks as if
0:01:49 > 0:01:51it might succeed through Saturday.
0:01:51 > 0:01:53We might get that band of showery rain,
0:01:53 > 0:01:54or bands of showery rain,
0:01:54 > 0:01:56moving through across the UK,
0:01:56 > 0:01:58temperatures above freezing,
0:01:58 > 0:02:00still cold enough for them to fall as snow,
0:02:00 > 0:02:01those showers over the hills.
0:02:01 > 0:02:03Then that low pressure moves away.
0:02:03 > 0:02:05The next one dives southwards
0:02:05 > 0:02:07across France and the low countries, we think.
0:02:07 > 0:02:09At this stage, Sunday is looking
0:02:09 > 0:02:10like the drier day of the weekend,
0:02:10 > 0:02:12with some good spells of sunshine.
0:02:12 > 0:02:13Not warm sunshine.
0:02:13 > 0:02:15Again, we're only talking about
0:02:15 > 0:02:166-8 degrees Celsius,
0:02:16 > 0:02:18but it is a more mobile situation.
0:02:18 > 0:02:20We've had one weather front moving through
0:02:20 > 0:02:23already on Saturday. So, yes, the weekend -
0:02:23 > 0:02:25less cold, still quite a few showers around,
0:02:25 > 0:02:28we think, on Saturday with more sunshine come Sunday.
0:02:28 > 0:02:31Then, into Monday, it looks as if things start
0:02:31 > 0:02:32to become more mobile.
0:02:32 > 0:02:35You can see those low pressures starting to line up.
0:02:35 > 0:02:37They do look a little bit more ferocious.
0:02:37 > 0:02:38Not too nasty at this stage,
0:02:38 > 0:02:40but they do look as if they've got
0:02:40 > 0:02:42more energy in them, if you like,
0:02:42 > 0:02:45to try and move this high pressure away from the UK.
0:02:45 > 0:02:47So, eventually some rain comes through
0:02:47 > 0:02:49during the course of Monday.
0:02:49 > 0:02:50It's because -
0:02:50 > 0:02:52well, you can see for yourself.
0:02:52 > 0:02:53By the early part of next week,
0:02:53 > 0:02:55we've got a much more west-to-east jet stream.
0:02:55 > 0:02:57It's stronger across the UK.
0:02:57 > 0:02:59It's more likely to bring us in some rainmakers -
0:02:59 > 0:03:01some wind and some rain.
0:03:01 > 0:03:03High pressure still close by,
0:03:03 > 0:03:04but the chances are,
0:03:04 > 0:03:05we think, that the low pressures
0:03:05 > 0:03:06will also start to bring in
0:03:06 > 0:03:08that change to wind and rain.
0:03:08 > 0:03:09It's how quickly and indeed
0:03:09 > 0:03:11how far south and east it comes
0:03:11 > 0:03:12when it comes against
0:03:12 > 0:03:13that blocking high pressure
0:03:13 > 0:03:14that's been with us for,
0:03:14 > 0:03:17well, a significant amount of time now.
0:03:17 > 0:03:20So, yes, it does look as if we'll see some rain next week,
0:03:20 > 0:03:23and it'll become windier. Gales, severe gales in the north and west.
0:03:23 > 0:03:26It's just how quickly it moves across the whole of the UK
0:03:26 > 0:03:29to affect the south and the east as well.