0:00:00 > 0:00:03Hello. If you were watching Weather For The Week Ahead yesterday,
0:00:03 > 0:00:06I was explaining about our blocked weather pattern,
0:00:06 > 0:00:09the high pressure that's been sat across Europe
0:00:09 > 0:00:10for the past week or two,
0:00:10 > 0:00:12with its dense cold air,
0:00:12 > 0:00:14and how reluctant it is to move away
0:00:14 > 0:00:16to allow the normal succession of low pressures
0:00:16 > 0:00:18to move in off the Atlantic.
0:00:18 > 0:00:20It looks now as if things are going to change.
0:00:20 > 0:00:22But again on Thursday
0:00:22 > 0:00:23we've had the same sort of weather,
0:00:23 > 0:00:26a real contrast where you've had the cloud
0:00:26 > 0:00:27and where you haven't.
0:00:27 > 0:00:30-2 under that continental cloud in the south,
0:00:30 > 0:00:3312-13 degrees in north-west Scotland with the sunshine.
0:00:33 > 0:00:37This is how it looked in Norfolk, with that grey cloud.
0:00:37 > 0:00:39It was bitterly cold too
0:00:39 > 0:00:42because there was a significant wind-chill as well.
0:00:42 > 0:00:45But this the view at St Andrews in Scotland
0:00:45 > 0:00:47and many parts of Scotland,
0:00:47 > 0:00:49Wales, enjoyed the sunshine,
0:00:49 > 0:00:50some late in the south too.
0:00:50 > 0:00:53But through the night, as the cloud breaks
0:00:53 > 0:00:54it's turned cold
0:00:54 > 0:00:56and a frost is quite widespread
0:00:56 > 0:00:57and that's the likelihood
0:00:57 > 0:00:59as we head into Friday morning.
0:00:59 > 0:01:00These are towns and cities.
0:01:00 > 0:01:02In the countryside, it'll be colder still.
0:01:02 > 0:01:04If you add on the strength of the wind,
0:01:04 > 0:01:07it really will be raw out and about.
0:01:07 > 0:01:09Not just that, we've the potential for
0:01:09 > 0:01:10either a bit of rain
0:01:10 > 0:01:12falling on frozen surfaces first thing,
0:01:12 > 0:01:15or indeed potentially some snow for a time.
0:01:15 > 0:01:16Then, as the day progresses,
0:01:16 > 0:01:18we pick up more cloud heading northwards.
0:01:18 > 0:01:20Low cloud and fog
0:01:20 > 0:01:21first thing in the morning.
0:01:21 > 0:01:23So it's cold in the east,
0:01:23 > 0:01:25progressively less cold further west.
0:01:25 > 0:01:27The start of a change.
0:01:27 > 0:01:30The change is being brought about very slowly,
0:01:30 > 0:01:31but during Thursday
0:01:31 > 0:01:33we have the cold continental air.
0:01:33 > 0:01:35Through Friday we have slightly less cold air
0:01:35 > 0:01:37coming from the Bay of Biscay.
0:01:37 > 0:01:39Finally, by Saturday, we start to pull in
0:01:39 > 0:01:40Atlantic south-westerlies.
0:01:40 > 0:01:43But it will still be cold in eastern areas
0:01:43 > 0:01:43and very icy potentially in the west, Saturday morning.
0:01:43 > 0:01:46and very icy potentially in the west, Saturday morning.
0:01:46 > 0:01:48So we've still got a hint of winter.
0:01:48 > 0:01:50The showers could still fall as snow over the hills.
0:01:50 > 0:01:52But it's gradually warming up.
0:01:52 > 0:01:55This is the fly in the ointment for the weekend,
0:01:55 > 0:01:57this mass of rain behind me.
0:01:57 > 0:01:58And exactly where it's going to go
0:01:58 > 0:02:00is giving us a headache at the moment.
0:02:00 > 0:02:02At the moment, it looks like
0:02:02 > 0:02:04it'll affect southern parts of the UK.
0:02:04 > 0:02:05To the north of that,
0:02:05 > 0:02:08a cold, frosty start, but sunshine to be found.
0:02:08 > 0:02:10That then whisks out of the way
0:02:10 > 0:02:12Sunday night into the start of Monday
0:02:12 > 0:02:14when we start to see the low pressures
0:02:14 > 0:02:16getting progressively further northwards
0:02:16 > 0:02:18and filling much of the North Atlantic,
0:02:18 > 0:02:19as you can see.
0:02:19 > 0:02:20So it's getting wetter,
0:02:20 > 0:02:23with bands of cloud bringing that rain in
0:02:23 > 0:02:24and windier too.
0:02:24 > 0:02:25And by the time we get to Monday,
0:02:25 > 0:02:27our temperatures are into double figures
0:02:27 > 0:02:29in most parts of England and Wales,
0:02:29 > 0:02:31and not for off for Scotland and N Ireland.
0:02:31 > 0:02:33That area of low pressure dominates
0:02:33 > 0:02:35most of the North Atlantic.
0:02:35 > 0:02:37And fairly tightly packed isobars means
0:02:37 > 0:02:39there will be gales
0:02:39 > 0:02:41or even severe gale force winds at times,
0:02:41 > 0:02:45as the more mobile weather situation takes over.
0:02:45 > 0:02:47So, for most of the start of January,
0:02:47 > 0:02:48we've had this blocking system.
0:02:48 > 0:02:50The weather systems haven't been allowed
0:02:50 > 0:02:52to run from west to east,
0:02:52 > 0:02:54But the upper winds, the jet stream,
0:02:54 > 0:02:55are now starting to strengthen
0:02:55 > 0:02:57to allow more mobility,
0:02:57 > 0:02:59more weather systems to cross the UK.
0:02:59 > 0:03:01Next week, the high pressure's
0:03:01 > 0:03:03still with us over continental Europe,
0:03:03 > 0:03:05but the low pressures are being allowed
0:03:05 > 0:03:07to make inroads into the north and west.
0:03:07 > 0:03:10That's where we'll see the wettest and windiest weather,
0:03:10 > 0:03:11but it looks like the whole UK
0:03:11 > 0:03:13will be in a milder, slightly more unsettled regime.
0:03:13 > 0:03:15This is a much lower probability
0:03:15 > 0:03:17that potentially at the end of the week
0:03:17 > 0:03:19those low pressures could head southwards
0:03:19 > 0:03:21and pull cold air into the south and east again.
0:03:21 > 0:03:23At the moment, though,
0:03:23 > 0:03:25the majority of the computer models think
0:03:25 > 0:03:27we'll keep with that south-westerly,
0:03:27 > 0:03:28mobile weather picture.