13/02/2017

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0:00:02 > 0:00:03Hi there. Well, after the last few days,

0:00:03 > 0:00:05I'm sure many of you are crying out

0:00:05 > 0:00:07for something a little bit more springlike in the forecast.

0:00:07 > 0:00:09Well, I've got good news,

0:00:09 > 0:00:12if you're fed up with scenes like this with some of us endured

0:00:12 > 0:00:13through this weekend,

0:00:13 > 0:00:16fast forward a few days and we could see a transformation

0:00:16 > 0:00:18with blue skies and sunshine

0:00:18 > 0:00:20and temperatures really will have leapt up again.

0:00:20 > 0:00:22That's the message over the next few days,

0:00:22 > 0:00:23slowly but surely

0:00:23 > 0:00:25it will be turning milder.

0:00:25 > 0:00:27A slow process, we still have got

0:00:27 > 0:00:28those strong easterly winds,

0:00:28 > 0:00:31but the source of the air is no longer Russia,

0:00:31 > 0:00:33but down across the Mediterranean

0:00:33 > 0:00:34and that's why the wind

0:00:34 > 0:00:36isn't as cold as it has been.

0:00:36 > 0:00:37Still not exactly warm, though,

0:00:37 > 0:00:39quite an edge to that wind,

0:00:39 > 0:00:40particularly where it says cloudy

0:00:40 > 0:00:41across these more northern

0:00:41 > 0:00:42and eastern parts of the UK.

0:00:42 > 0:00:44Further south and west, though,

0:00:44 > 0:00:46a bit of sunshine makes all the difference

0:00:46 > 0:00:48compared with all the gloom of the weekend.

0:00:48 > 0:00:49It will be windy, though,

0:00:49 > 0:00:51no more so than across the coasts and hills

0:00:51 > 0:00:53of West Wales and southwest England.

0:00:53 > 0:00:5650-, 60-mile-an-hour gusts could cause some issues.

0:00:56 > 0:00:59There are warnings in force from the Met Office.

0:00:59 > 0:01:01So it probably won't feel as warm

0:01:01 > 0:01:03as some of these numbers suggest.

0:01:03 > 0:01:04Double figures across the south

0:01:04 > 0:01:06with some sunshine but it will be windy,

0:01:06 > 0:01:08particularly chilly where it stays cloudy

0:01:08 > 0:01:10across the north and the east.

0:01:10 > 0:01:12As we head into the night, and into Tuesday,

0:01:12 > 0:01:13this little front here arrives

0:01:13 > 0:01:14across the far southwest and

0:01:14 > 0:01:16that will thicken up the cloud

0:01:16 > 0:01:17and produce some showery bursts

0:01:17 > 0:01:19of rain to southwest England,

0:01:19 > 0:01:20southwestern parts of Wales too.

0:01:20 > 0:01:21Further north and east,

0:01:21 > 0:01:23it says dry, a bit of a question mark

0:01:23 > 0:01:24about how much cloud there'll be.

0:01:24 > 0:01:26I hope you'll see some brightness,

0:01:26 > 0:01:27but still distinctly chilly

0:01:27 > 0:01:28across these more northeastern areas

0:01:28 > 0:01:30with the wind off the sea,

0:01:30 > 0:01:32milder further south and west.

0:01:32 > 0:01:34Now, that front saunters across the country

0:01:34 > 0:01:35giving the odd shower,

0:01:35 > 0:01:36followed by another system

0:01:36 > 0:01:38which will give some heavier

0:01:38 > 0:01:39and possibly thundery showers

0:01:39 > 0:01:41actually, across the more western parts of the UK.

0:01:41 > 0:01:43So, not entirely dry through the middle of the week,

0:01:43 > 0:01:45there will be some showers around,

0:01:45 > 0:01:46they should clear away by Thursday,

0:01:46 > 0:01:49though, the weather settling down and look at these numbers,

0:01:49 > 0:01:51much higher than we've seen recently.

0:01:51 > 0:01:53So we'll be at a quiet spell,

0:01:53 > 0:01:54I think, as we end the week.

0:01:54 > 0:01:57A little ridge of high pressure building in,

0:01:57 > 0:01:59maybe not for long, there are fronts lined up

0:01:59 > 0:02:02out in the Atlantic and they'll arrive eventually,

0:02:02 > 0:02:03but I think as we end the week,

0:02:03 > 0:02:05it should be quite a nice day Friday

0:02:05 > 0:02:07with some sunshine around.

0:02:07 > 0:02:09The winds will be fairly light as well.

0:02:09 > 0:02:12So it'll feel almost springlike, I think,

0:02:12 > 0:02:1410 or 11 degrees quite widely.

0:02:14 > 0:02:16These will be the sorts of scenes,

0:02:16 > 0:02:17I think, as we end the week,

0:02:17 > 0:02:21but with light winds overnight, it'll be cold,

0:02:21 > 0:02:24maybe a touch of frost and there could be some fog patches around.

0:02:24 > 0:02:28Some of those patches of fog could linger well into the day.

0:02:28 > 0:02:30And then as we hit the weekend, it's all change,

0:02:30 > 0:02:32because the jet stream wakes up,

0:02:32 > 0:02:35this conveyor belt of energy coming in off the Atlantic

0:02:35 > 0:02:36which carries weather systems.

0:02:36 > 0:02:39It does look as if that jet stream will deliver some outbreaks

0:02:39 > 0:02:42of rain particularly across the more northern and western areas.

0:02:42 > 0:02:43The westerly winds will ensure

0:02:43 > 0:02:45it's much milder than recently,

0:02:45 > 0:02:46wettest across the northwest,

0:02:46 > 0:02:48brightest across the southeast as we

0:02:48 > 0:02:50go into the early part of next week.

0:02:50 > 0:02:54Now if you were watching yesterday, I mentioned tropical influences

0:02:54 > 0:02:57which can have a bearing on OUR weather in actual fact.

0:02:57 > 0:03:02We see pulses of energy moving their way west to east across the tropics

0:03:02 > 0:03:06and that tends to enhance shower activity across tropical regions

0:03:06 > 0:03:10and it's known that these waves of energy can actually influence

0:03:10 > 0:03:13the behaviour of our jet stream closer to home

0:03:13 > 0:03:16and it does look as if, as we end the month,

0:03:16 > 0:03:20that could have the effect of halting that westerly jet stream,

0:03:20 > 0:03:22getting it blocked again,

0:03:22 > 0:03:24deflecting weather systems and things drying up,

0:03:24 > 0:03:26but also turning chillier again

0:03:26 > 0:03:28as we end the month.

0:03:28 > 0:03:30I'll update you again tomorrow.