14/02/2017

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0:00:02 > 0:00:04Hi. Winter is not over yet, let's not kid ourselves,

0:00:04 > 0:00:07but over the next few days, it is a mild prospect.

0:00:07 > 0:00:08In fact, on Monday,

0:00:08 > 0:00:10it almost felt like spring across some parts of the UK.

0:00:10 > 0:00:12With some very welcome sunshine.

0:00:12 > 0:00:15No more so than across parts of the West Country.

0:00:15 > 0:00:19A beautiful shot taken from just outside Exeter, headquarters

0:00:19 > 0:00:23of the Met Office, of course, top of the shot with 14 Celsius.

0:00:23 > 0:00:26It was a lovely day across other parts of the UK except across

0:00:26 > 0:00:29the far north-east of England and the eastern half of Scotland.

0:00:29 > 0:00:32Shrouded in cloud, it was cold in Aberdeenshire.

0:00:32 > 0:00:34Here in Finzean,

0:00:34 > 0:00:38we didn't get much above 4 Celsius with still some snow on the ground.

0:00:38 > 0:00:41But even here over the next few days, it will be turning mild.

0:00:41 > 0:00:42There will be some sunshine.

0:00:42 > 0:00:45The price we pay is a little bit of rain at times.

0:00:45 > 0:00:49In fact, we are going to see some rain pushing in initially to

0:00:49 > 0:00:51south-western parts of the UK

0:00:51 > 0:00:54as fronts start to come in off the Atlantic.

0:00:54 > 0:00:57The high pressure still holding sway further north and east.

0:00:57 > 0:00:59So here the best of the dry weather,

0:00:59 > 0:01:01here the dampness across the south-west.

0:01:01 > 0:01:02Not much rain, hit and miss,

0:01:02 > 0:01:05it will be spreading its way into other parts of the West Country,

0:01:05 > 0:01:08maybe Wales, some other southern counties, Northern Ireland.

0:01:08 > 0:01:09But behind that,

0:01:09 > 0:01:12it will probably brighten up again across the far south-west.

0:01:12 > 0:01:13A relatively mild day here,

0:01:13 > 0:01:16still quite chilly in the breeze further north and east despite some

0:01:16 > 0:01:20brightness and that cloud hanging on across the east of Scotland.

0:01:20 > 0:01:23So this front idles its way across the country with

0:01:23 > 0:01:24a thicker band of cloud.

0:01:24 > 0:01:28Another more active front with a bit more oomph to it arrives on

0:01:28 > 0:01:31Wednesday across south-western areas with some sharper bursts of rain.

0:01:31 > 0:01:34Don't take the position of the blobs of blue too literally,

0:01:34 > 0:01:36but it gives the idea that there will be some pulses of rain

0:01:36 > 0:01:38pushing up from the south-west.

0:01:38 > 0:01:39Some drier spells,

0:01:39 > 0:01:41temperatures still heading in the right direction.

0:01:41 > 0:01:44Turning milder nationwide.

0:01:44 > 0:01:46So that set of fronts clears its way north-eastwards.

0:01:46 > 0:01:49It hangs around across some northern parts of the UK where there

0:01:49 > 0:01:52will still be some showers around, I think, on Thursday.

0:01:52 > 0:01:56But the trend will be, as we end the week, for things to dry out again.

0:01:56 > 0:01:58There'll be a fair bit of cloud,

0:01:58 > 0:02:01but I think there will be some sunshine around as well.

0:02:01 > 0:02:02It will feel quite nice.

0:02:02 > 0:02:06Mind you, with light winds overnight, that does give

0:02:06 > 0:02:10the possibility of some frost and perhaps some fog patches

0:02:10 > 0:02:12which could linger well on into the day in some places.

0:02:12 > 0:02:15Most likely across the southern half of the UK on Saturday.

0:02:15 > 0:02:17Further north, we've got another change,

0:02:17 > 0:02:19another set of fronts pushing in, this time from the north-west,

0:02:19 > 0:02:22with some rain turning up across western Scotland during

0:02:22 > 0:02:23the course of Saturday.

0:02:23 > 0:02:26That's a sign of things to come because,

0:02:26 > 0:02:29as I mentioned yesterday, the jet stream's going to start to liven up

0:02:29 > 0:02:31and deliver weather systems, outbreaks of rain,

0:02:31 > 0:02:35along its tracks, in from the Atlantic and down across the UK.

0:02:35 > 0:02:37It's going to be a mild wind direction,

0:02:37 > 0:02:38certainly milder than recently.

0:02:38 > 0:02:41The wettest weather across north-western areas,

0:02:41 > 0:02:43the driest and brightest further south-east.

0:02:43 > 0:02:47As I also mentioned yesterday, we are keeping our eye on developments

0:02:47 > 0:02:51down in the Tropics, where we tend to get pulses of energy

0:02:51 > 0:02:55moving their way west to east around the globe.

0:02:55 > 0:02:59These pulses of energy tend to enhance the rainfall in the Tropics,

0:02:59 > 0:03:02but it also has the effect of influencing

0:03:02 > 0:03:04our jet stream closer to home.

0:03:04 > 0:03:09It could well be that as we end the month, the effect on the jet stream

0:03:09 > 0:03:13could well be to block it again and deflect it away from the UK.

0:03:13 > 0:03:16If that happens, things will turn drier and probably

0:03:16 > 0:03:18a bit chillier again as we end the month.

0:03:18 > 0:03:22I know it's a long way off, but a dry signal perhaps not ideal,

0:03:22 > 0:03:27because winter rain is very useful when it comes to the summer.

0:03:27 > 0:03:29I'll update you again tomorrow.