28/02/2017

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0:00:02 > 0:00:03Hi there. The weather is going through

0:00:03 > 0:00:04a transition at the moment,

0:00:04 > 0:00:06as we go from winter into spring.

0:00:06 > 0:00:07The sun is getting ever-stronger

0:00:07 > 0:00:09but the air is still quite cold,

0:00:09 > 0:00:10and that can manifest itself

0:00:10 > 0:00:11in some interesting

0:00:11 > 0:00:13and apparently confusing contradictions.

0:00:13 > 0:00:14On Monday, we seen

0:00:14 > 0:00:15a huge contrast in the weather.

0:00:15 > 0:00:18Wet for some, sunny for others,

0:00:18 > 0:00:19and for a few of us,

0:00:19 > 0:00:20a reminder that winter

0:00:20 > 0:00:22ain't finished yet.

0:00:22 > 0:00:23There was some snowfall around,

0:00:23 > 0:00:24this the scene during

0:00:24 > 0:00:27Monday evening across Midlothian.

0:00:27 > 0:00:28And the weather will continue

0:00:28 > 0:00:30to chop and change on a daily basis

0:00:30 > 0:00:32through the rest of this week,

0:00:32 > 0:00:34as the seasons battle it out.

0:00:34 > 0:00:36There will be rain, there'll be shine,

0:00:36 > 0:00:38and there will be a continued chance

0:00:38 > 0:00:40of some snow, especially across northern areas.

0:00:40 > 0:00:42We've got low-pressure in control

0:00:42 > 0:00:44and various frontal bands around

0:00:44 > 0:00:46that area of low pressure bringing rain,

0:00:46 > 0:00:48and with the air still quite chilly,

0:00:48 > 0:00:49a continued chance of

0:00:49 > 0:00:51some of that rain turning to snow.

0:00:51 > 0:00:53This is the theme on Tuesday,

0:00:53 > 0:00:54areas of rain and hill snow

0:00:54 > 0:00:56pushing in from the north-west

0:00:56 > 0:00:58and tracking their way west-to-east

0:00:58 > 0:00:59across England and Wales.

0:00:59 > 0:01:02Some sunshine ahead and behind that,

0:01:02 > 0:01:03some parts of northern England

0:01:03 > 0:01:05having a drab and cold afternoon.

0:01:05 > 0:01:06Some of the best of the sunshine

0:01:06 > 0:01:08actually across parts of

0:01:08 > 0:01:09Scotland and Northern Ireland.

0:01:09 > 0:01:11Nowhere will it be warm,

0:01:11 > 0:01:13temperatures in single figures.

0:01:13 > 0:01:15So that little chap clears away eastwards

0:01:15 > 0:01:18and, as we head into the night and skies clear,

0:01:18 > 0:01:19we're expecting a frost around,

0:01:19 > 0:01:20further wintry showers

0:01:20 > 0:01:22across the north of Scotland.

0:01:22 > 0:01:23As we get into Wednesday,

0:01:23 > 0:01:24the next frontal system

0:01:24 > 0:01:27comes in from the west, and that's going to spread

0:01:27 > 0:01:28some rain into southern counties.

0:01:28 > 0:01:29Question mark as to

0:01:29 > 0:01:31how far north that rain extends,

0:01:31 > 0:01:33but central areas could eventually turn pretty damp.

0:01:33 > 0:01:35Best of the brightness further north,

0:01:35 > 0:01:36but another chilly day.

0:01:36 > 0:01:39Into Thursday and the uncertainties continue,

0:01:39 > 0:01:40but it looks like we will have

0:01:40 > 0:01:42a band of rain through central areas,

0:01:42 > 0:01:44some hill snow as well to the south,

0:01:44 > 0:01:47milder to the north, distinctly chilly.

0:01:47 > 0:01:48Let's go over to the States. Why?

0:01:48 > 0:01:51Because what's happening in the States could impact

0:01:51 > 0:01:52our weather later in the week.

0:01:52 > 0:01:54Some really violent storms at the moment,

0:01:54 > 0:01:55this was the scene on Monday

0:01:55 > 0:01:56across the Deep South.

0:01:56 > 0:01:58Some thunderstorms, some tornadoes as well.

0:01:58 > 0:02:00The threat is there again

0:02:00 > 0:02:02on Tuesday through the Midwest,

0:02:02 > 0:02:03injecting a lot of energy

0:02:03 > 0:02:04into the atmosphere.

0:02:04 > 0:02:06Actually, these really big storms

0:02:06 > 0:02:09could well disrupt the jet stream,

0:02:09 > 0:02:10which then transports itself

0:02:10 > 0:02:12across the Atlantic and could

0:02:12 > 0:02:14well develop a kink like this

0:02:14 > 0:02:16as we head towards the end of the week,

0:02:16 > 0:02:18and that will impact on how quickly

0:02:18 > 0:02:20and how far north weather systems

0:02:20 > 0:02:22travel later on this week.

0:02:22 > 0:02:25So, take this chart with a little bit of

0:02:25 > 0:02:28a pinch of salt in terms of the detail.

0:02:28 > 0:02:29It does look as if we're going to see

0:02:29 > 0:02:31an area of low pressure and rain somewhere

0:02:31 > 0:02:34across the country, but how far north,

0:02:34 > 0:02:35big question mark as

0:02:35 > 0:02:37it runs into the cold air.

0:02:37 > 0:02:40Again, a continued chance of some snow.

0:02:40 > 0:02:41We've got this sort of battle going on

0:02:41 > 0:02:43between cold air to the north and milder air

0:02:43 > 0:02:45to the south.

0:02:45 > 0:02:47And along that battleground,

0:02:47 > 0:02:48we have got the jet stream.

0:02:48 > 0:02:50It will be there through the weekend,

0:02:50 > 0:02:53dividing the cold from the mild.

0:02:53 > 0:02:54The question mark is -

0:02:54 > 0:02:56how far north will the jet stream get?

0:02:56 > 0:02:58And that would displace the cold air

0:02:58 > 0:03:00if it does move northwards.

0:03:00 > 0:03:02In this scenario through next week,

0:03:02 > 0:03:04we're going to see areas of low pressure

0:03:04 > 0:03:05tracking in from the Atlantic,

0:03:05 > 0:03:07delivering rain, yes,

0:03:07 > 0:03:08but delivering milder air.

0:03:08 > 0:03:10However, that is not a bolt-on certainty

0:03:10 > 0:03:12by an stretch of the imagination.

0:03:12 > 0:03:13Some computer models hold

0:03:13 > 0:03:15the jet stream further south,

0:03:15 > 0:03:17allowing high pressure to build

0:03:17 > 0:03:19to the north and pushing cold air

0:03:19 > 0:03:21in from the north-east. Colder air,

0:03:21 > 0:03:22but probably dryer as well.

0:03:22 > 0:03:24The battle continues and

0:03:24 > 0:03:26the uncertainty continues as well.

0:03:26 > 0:03:27I hopefully will update you again

0:03:27 > 0:03:29this time tomorrow.