0:00:02 > 0:00:03Hello. We're about to head into March.
0:00:03 > 0:00:06Time for a quick look back at February and it may not come
0:00:06 > 0:00:09as too much of a surprise to hear that February was warmer
0:00:09 > 0:00:12than average, confirmed by this map here,
0:00:12 > 0:00:13the pink hues indicating
0:00:13 > 0:00:15temperatures above average
0:00:15 > 0:00:16by almost two degrees.
0:00:16 > 0:00:17There wasn't too much
0:00:17 > 0:00:20in the way of frost or snow.
0:00:20 > 0:00:21But, for the first of March,
0:00:21 > 0:00:23the blues dominate the chart,
0:00:23 > 0:00:25the mild areas being kept to the south,
0:00:25 > 0:00:27for the most part.
0:00:27 > 0:00:29The division between the mild
0:00:29 > 0:00:31and the cold delineated by the jet stream.
0:00:31 > 0:00:32The jet stream is mostly
0:00:32 > 0:00:34to the south of us through this week
0:00:34 > 0:00:36and this is a theme I'll return to
0:00:36 > 0:00:38at the end of the broadcast
0:00:38 > 0:00:39to discuss next week.
0:00:39 > 0:00:41Now, along the line of the jet stream,
0:00:41 > 0:00:42we see weather systems
0:00:42 > 0:00:44and because the jet is along southern areas,
0:00:44 > 0:00:46this is where most
0:00:46 > 0:00:47of the rain-bearing weather systems
0:00:47 > 0:00:50will be during the course of the next 48 hours or so.
0:00:50 > 0:00:51In fact, one such system
0:00:51 > 0:00:53pushing into southern counties
0:00:53 > 0:00:54during the course of the day,
0:00:54 > 0:00:56bringing some outbreaks of rain.
0:00:56 > 0:00:58Further north into the colder air,
0:00:58 > 0:00:59we actually see the best of the sunshine.
0:00:59 > 0:01:01There will be some wintry showers
0:01:01 > 0:01:03across the north of Scotland,
0:01:03 > 0:01:04but for most of Scotland
0:01:04 > 0:01:06and most of Northern Ireland,
0:01:06 > 0:01:08plenty of sunshine. Not exactly warm,
0:01:08 > 0:01:09we are in the cold air here
0:01:09 > 0:01:11so just five or six degrees, typically.
0:01:11 > 0:01:13A few showers across parts of northern England,
0:01:13 > 0:01:14but some brightness.
0:01:14 > 0:01:16Down into the north Midlands, too,
0:01:16 > 0:01:17but points south of that
0:01:17 > 0:01:19will be rather grey and damp
0:01:19 > 0:01:21through the afternoon at three o'clock.
0:01:21 > 0:01:22It'll be rather miserable
0:01:22 > 0:01:24with some rain from time to time.
0:01:24 > 0:01:25It'll feel quite chilly,
0:01:25 > 0:01:27temperatures around seven or eight degrees,
0:01:27 > 0:01:28and then things really liven up
0:01:28 > 0:01:30as we head into the night.
0:01:30 > 0:01:31Winds will increase.
0:01:31 > 0:01:33We could well see gales in exposed places
0:01:33 > 0:01:35and, as the rain heads northwards again,
0:01:35 > 0:01:37we could well see it turning to snow
0:01:37 > 0:01:38as it hits that cold air
0:01:38 > 0:01:39across parts of north Wales,
0:01:39 > 0:01:41parts of northern England,
0:01:41 > 0:01:42maybe Northern Ireland as well.
0:01:42 > 0:01:44That is certainly one to watch
0:01:44 > 0:01:46so a combination of very strong winds, rain
0:01:46 > 0:01:50and potentially some snow could cause some disruption
0:01:50 > 0:01:53so watch out for warnings over the next few hours.
0:01:53 > 0:01:54As we go through the day,
0:01:54 > 0:01:57so things will tend to settle down.
0:01:57 > 0:01:58The worst of the gales will subside.
0:01:58 > 0:02:00Still some dampness through this central slice,
0:02:00 > 0:02:03but some brighter weather on either side
0:02:03 > 0:02:05and temperatures across southern areas
0:02:05 > 0:02:07will pick up. Some of that milder air
0:02:07 > 0:02:10trying to creep in so up into double figures here,
0:02:10 > 0:02:12still distinctly chilly further north.
0:02:12 > 0:02:14And as we end the week,
0:02:14 > 0:02:16we've got another area of low pressure
0:02:16 > 0:02:19pushing in from the south-west on that jet stream
0:02:19 > 0:02:21and that's going to push into southern areas,
0:02:21 > 0:02:23bringing a rather disappointing end to the week
0:02:23 > 0:02:25with some potentially quite wet weather.
0:02:25 > 0:02:27There's a bit of uncertainty about how far
0:02:27 > 0:02:30and how quickly the rain extends its way northwards,
0:02:30 > 0:02:32but for most of Northern Ireland and Scotland,
0:02:32 > 0:02:33again here in the chillier air,
0:02:33 > 0:02:35but the best of the brightness further southwards.
0:02:35 > 0:02:38Temperatures technically higher, but with the rain,
0:02:38 > 0:02:39it won't feel all that clever
0:02:39 > 0:02:41and that low pressure system's going to sit around
0:02:41 > 0:02:43for much of the weekend.
0:02:43 > 0:02:44This is Saturday's chart,
0:02:44 > 0:02:46the low going nowhere fast
0:02:46 > 0:02:48so the bottom line is for this weekend,
0:02:48 > 0:02:51it's going to be rather disappointing for some.
0:02:51 > 0:02:53There'll be some wet weather at times, quite blustery winds.
0:02:53 > 0:02:55I think for most of us,
0:02:55 > 0:02:57it'll continue to feel on the chilly side.
0:02:57 > 0:02:59So, what about next week?
0:02:59 > 0:03:03The computer models are in some disagreement.
0:03:03 > 0:03:05One scenario is that the jet stays to the south
0:03:05 > 0:03:07and that we stay in the chilly air
0:03:07 > 0:03:10as we go through the first few days of March.
0:03:10 > 0:03:11Another scenario -
0:03:11 > 0:03:12other computer models are indicating
0:03:12 > 0:03:15that that jet will start to move northwards,
0:03:15 > 0:03:18allowing some milder air in from the south
0:03:18 > 0:03:20and the south-west with hints of something
0:03:20 > 0:03:21a little bit more spring-like
0:03:21 > 0:03:23so still quite a lot of uncertainty.
0:03:23 > 0:03:25Hopefully, things will become clearer
0:03:25 > 0:03:26over the next 24 hours.
0:03:26 > 0:03:28I'll speak to you again tomorrow.