05/03/2017

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0:00:02 > 0:00:04Hello, thanks for joining me, it's that time where we try to

0:00:04 > 0:00:07give you a sense not only just of what's going on in the next few days

0:00:07 > 0:00:10or so, but we give you a sense of what's likely to be going on

0:00:10 > 0:00:13as far ahead as the forthcoming weekend.

0:00:13 > 0:00:15Over the next few days, the

0:00:15 > 0:00:17jet stream will be powering areas

0:00:17 > 0:00:20of low pressure towards the British Isles.

0:00:20 > 0:00:22There's no great meander in

0:00:22 > 0:00:24the jet just at the moment.

0:00:24 > 0:00:26It is very much a direct line

0:00:26 > 0:00:28from what's going on across in the

0:00:28 > 0:00:29eastern side of the USA to

0:00:29 > 0:00:32us here in the British Isles.

0:00:32 > 0:00:35And when we get that sort of set-up, well, it is that sort

0:00:35 > 0:00:38of time of year where we keep the unsettled weather coming.

0:00:38 > 0:00:41There will be some blustery winds and some spells of really

0:00:41 > 0:00:43quite significant rain at times as well.

0:00:43 > 0:00:45The first of those perhaps manifesting itself across the

0:00:45 > 0:00:46southern half of Britain

0:00:46 > 0:00:48in the first half of Sunday.

0:00:48 > 0:00:49At least it's on the move so

0:00:49 > 0:00:51after a wet start across the

0:00:51 > 0:00:52south-western quarter, it gradually

0:00:52 > 0:00:54drives its way towards Wales,

0:00:54 > 0:00:55The Midlands, East Anglia and parts of

0:00:55 > 0:00:56the south-east with blustery

0:00:56 > 0:00:58showers following on behind

0:00:58 > 0:00:59and pretty strong winds as well,

0:00:59 > 0:01:0150/60 mile an hour gusts for a time.

0:01:01 > 0:01:02But the good news of the day is

0:01:02 > 0:01:04that it's a much improved picture

0:01:04 > 0:01:05across Scotland, Northern Ireland

0:01:05 > 0:01:06and the north of England.

0:01:06 > 0:01:08There will be some sunshine

0:01:08 > 0:01:10and the persistent rain largely saved

0:01:10 > 0:01:12for the Shetland Isles.

0:01:12 > 0:01:14Now, as that system tends to drift away,

0:01:14 > 0:01:16it only makes room for another

0:01:16 > 0:01:18one in the first part of Monday,

0:01:18 > 0:01:20just to give a glancing blow into

0:01:20 > 0:01:22the south-western quarter of the British Isles.

0:01:22 > 0:01:24But in its own right,

0:01:24 > 0:01:25that will be another spell

0:01:25 > 0:01:28of rather wet and windy fare.

0:01:28 > 0:01:29Monday elsewhere, a sort of

0:01:29 > 0:01:31in-betweeny sort of day, not an

0:01:31 > 0:01:33awful lot going on, quite a bit of dry weather around,

0:01:33 > 0:01:35some brightness, the bulk of

0:01:35 > 0:01:37the showers to be found across the northern and

0:01:37 > 0:01:38north-western parts of Scotland and

0:01:38 > 0:01:40indeed, Northern Ireland.

0:01:40 > 0:01:41Now the isobars just start to

0:01:41 > 0:01:44ridge from Monday into Tuesday.

0:01:44 > 0:01:45More settled conditions,

0:01:45 > 0:01:47what a pity much of that comes in

0:01:47 > 0:01:48overnight from Monday to Tuesday

0:01:48 > 0:01:50which will be quite a chilly night

0:01:50 > 0:01:51and then we'll again be

0:01:51 > 0:01:53looking towards the Atlantic to

0:01:53 > 0:01:54see the next spell of pretty wet

0:01:54 > 0:01:56weather piling its way in

0:01:56 > 0:01:58towards Northern Ireland and eventually

0:01:58 > 0:01:59the Western fringes of

0:01:59 > 0:02:01Scotland, Western England and through Wales

0:02:01 > 0:02:03with the very best of the weather to be found

0:02:03 > 0:02:06through Tuesday away towards the east.

0:02:06 > 0:02:09Until the fronts come to get you even here.

0:02:09 > 0:02:10But at least the frontal systems

0:02:10 > 0:02:12clear away for the most part

0:02:12 > 0:02:13both into the north sea and down

0:02:13 > 0:02:15into the English Channel

0:02:15 > 0:02:16although that's quite a close

0:02:16 > 0:02:17run thing so there'll still be

0:02:17 > 0:02:19a lot of cloud on Wednesday here.

0:02:19 > 0:02:20Looking further north, that low

0:02:20 > 0:02:21pressure not a million miles away.

0:02:21 > 0:02:24Some pretty strong winds in that circulation across the

0:02:24 > 0:02:25north-western quarter of Scotland.

0:02:25 > 0:02:27We're probably talking gale force winds and

0:02:27 > 0:02:29so a blustery day elsewhere and

0:02:29 > 0:02:31then we get into the latter stages

0:02:31 > 0:02:33of next week and there is some

0:02:33 > 0:02:34uncertainty about the overall

0:02:34 > 0:02:36message here but we suspect,

0:02:36 > 0:02:38as I was intimating earlier,

0:02:38 > 0:02:40that the jet stream will be firing

0:02:40 > 0:02:41those low pressures close by

0:02:41 > 0:02:43to the north-western quarter

0:02:43 > 0:02:45of the British Isles with

0:02:45 > 0:02:47high pressure trying to hang on

0:02:47 > 0:02:49down in the south-western quarter.

0:02:49 > 0:02:51Now, as far ahead as next weekend,

0:02:51 > 0:02:53this could be the scenario.

0:02:53 > 0:02:54Low close by to Denmark,

0:02:54 > 0:02:56high pressure away towards the south-west

0:02:56 > 0:02:58and that will leave us with

0:02:58 > 0:03:00a north or north-westerly flow,

0:03:00 > 0:03:03never a warm direction at this time of year.

0:03:03 > 0:03:04The outlier solution in models at

0:03:04 > 0:03:06the moment is that we could have

0:03:06 > 0:03:08a low pressure close to the English Channel with high pressure

0:03:08 > 0:03:10a little further north

0:03:10 > 0:03:12and that would suggest an east or

0:03:12 > 0:03:14north-easterly, again, never a warm

0:03:14 > 0:03:16direction and you may well say,

0:03:16 > 0:03:18"Well that's just a little bit of a

0:03:18 > 0:03:19"nuance, a little bit of a subtlety,"

0:03:19 > 0:03:22but it does mean that whatever model

0:03:22 > 0:03:24wins out, things will turn colder,

0:03:24 > 0:03:26it will be a windy week and it will

0:03:26 > 0:03:28often be really quite unsettled.

0:03:28 > 0:03:29Bye-bye.