0:00:02 > 0:00:04Hello, thanks for joining me, it's that time where we try to
0:00:04 > 0:00:07give you a sense not only just of what's going on in the next few days
0:00:07 > 0:00:10or so, but we give you a sense of what's likely to be going on
0:00:10 > 0:00:13as far ahead as the forthcoming weekend.
0:00:13 > 0:00:15Over the next few days, the
0:00:15 > 0:00:17jet stream will be powering areas
0:00:17 > 0:00:20of low pressure towards the British Isles.
0:00:20 > 0:00:22There's no great meander in
0:00:22 > 0:00:24the jet just at the moment.
0:00:24 > 0:00:26It is very much a direct line
0:00:26 > 0:00:28from what's going on across in the
0:00:28 > 0:00:29eastern side of the USA to
0:00:29 > 0:00:32us here in the British Isles.
0:00:32 > 0:00:35And when we get that sort of set-up, well, it is that sort
0:00:35 > 0:00:38of time of year where we keep the unsettled weather coming.
0:00:38 > 0:00:41There will be some blustery winds and some spells of really
0:00:41 > 0:00:43quite significant rain at times as well.
0:00:43 > 0:00:45The first of those perhaps manifesting itself across the
0:00:45 > 0:00:46southern half of Britain
0:00:46 > 0:00:48in the first half of Sunday.
0:00:48 > 0:00:49At least it's on the move so
0:00:49 > 0:00:51after a wet start across the
0:00:51 > 0:00:52south-western quarter, it gradually
0:00:52 > 0:00:54drives its way towards Wales,
0:00:54 > 0:00:55The Midlands, East Anglia and parts of
0:00:55 > 0:00:56the south-east with blustery
0:00:56 > 0:00:58showers following on behind
0:00:58 > 0:00:59and pretty strong winds as well,
0:00:59 > 0:01:0150/60 mile an hour gusts for a time.
0:01:01 > 0:01:02But the good news of the day is
0:01:02 > 0:01:04that it's a much improved picture
0:01:04 > 0:01:05across Scotland, Northern Ireland
0:01:05 > 0:01:06and the north of England.
0:01:06 > 0:01:08There will be some sunshine
0:01:08 > 0:01:10and the persistent rain largely saved
0:01:10 > 0:01:12for the Shetland Isles.
0:01:12 > 0:01:14Now, as that system tends to drift away,
0:01:14 > 0:01:16it only makes room for another
0:01:16 > 0:01:18one in the first part of Monday,
0:01:18 > 0:01:20just to give a glancing blow into
0:01:20 > 0:01:22the south-western quarter of the British Isles.
0:01:22 > 0:01:24But in its own right,
0:01:24 > 0:01:25that will be another spell
0:01:25 > 0:01:28of rather wet and windy fare.
0:01:28 > 0:01:29Monday elsewhere, a sort of
0:01:29 > 0:01:31in-betweeny sort of day, not an
0:01:31 > 0:01:33awful lot going on, quite a bit of dry weather around,
0:01:33 > 0:01:35some brightness, the bulk of
0:01:35 > 0:01:37the showers to be found across the northern and
0:01:37 > 0:01:38north-western parts of Scotland and
0:01:38 > 0:01:40indeed, Northern Ireland.
0:01:40 > 0:01:41Now the isobars just start to
0:01:41 > 0:01:44ridge from Monday into Tuesday.
0:01:44 > 0:01:45More settled conditions,
0:01:45 > 0:01:47what a pity much of that comes in
0:01:47 > 0:01:48overnight from Monday to Tuesday
0:01:48 > 0:01:50which will be quite a chilly night
0:01:50 > 0:01:51and then we'll again be
0:01:51 > 0:01:53looking towards the Atlantic to
0:01:53 > 0:01:54see the next spell of pretty wet
0:01:54 > 0:01:56weather piling its way in
0:01:56 > 0:01:58towards Northern Ireland and eventually
0:01:58 > 0:01:59the Western fringes of
0:01:59 > 0:02:01Scotland, Western England and through Wales
0:02:01 > 0:02:03with the very best of the weather to be found
0:02:03 > 0:02:06through Tuesday away towards the east.
0:02:06 > 0:02:09Until the fronts come to get you even here.
0:02:09 > 0:02:10But at least the frontal systems
0:02:10 > 0:02:12clear away for the most part
0:02:12 > 0:02:13both into the north sea and down
0:02:13 > 0:02:15into the English Channel
0:02:15 > 0:02:16although that's quite a close
0:02:16 > 0:02:17run thing so there'll still be
0:02:17 > 0:02:19a lot of cloud on Wednesday here.
0:02:19 > 0:02:20Looking further north, that low
0:02:20 > 0:02:21pressure not a million miles away.
0:02:21 > 0:02:24Some pretty strong winds in that circulation across the
0:02:24 > 0:02:25north-western quarter of Scotland.
0:02:25 > 0:02:27We're probably talking gale force winds and
0:02:27 > 0:02:29so a blustery day elsewhere and
0:02:29 > 0:02:31then we get into the latter stages
0:02:31 > 0:02:33of next week and there is some
0:02:33 > 0:02:34uncertainty about the overall
0:02:34 > 0:02:36message here but we suspect,
0:02:36 > 0:02:38as I was intimating earlier,
0:02:38 > 0:02:40that the jet stream will be firing
0:02:40 > 0:02:41those low pressures close by
0:02:41 > 0:02:43to the north-western quarter
0:02:43 > 0:02:45of the British Isles with
0:02:45 > 0:02:47high pressure trying to hang on
0:02:47 > 0:02:49down in the south-western quarter.
0:02:49 > 0:02:51Now, as far ahead as next weekend,
0:02:51 > 0:02:53this could be the scenario.
0:02:53 > 0:02:54Low close by to Denmark,
0:02:54 > 0:02:56high pressure away towards the south-west
0:02:56 > 0:02:58and that will leave us with
0:02:58 > 0:03:00a north or north-westerly flow,
0:03:00 > 0:03:03never a warm direction at this time of year.
0:03:03 > 0:03:04The outlier solution in models at
0:03:04 > 0:03:06the moment is that we could have
0:03:06 > 0:03:08a low pressure close to the English Channel with high pressure
0:03:08 > 0:03:10a little further north
0:03:10 > 0:03:12and that would suggest an east or
0:03:12 > 0:03:14north-easterly, again, never a warm
0:03:14 > 0:03:16direction and you may well say,
0:03:16 > 0:03:18"Well that's just a little bit of a
0:03:18 > 0:03:19"nuance, a little bit of a subtlety,"
0:03:19 > 0:03:22but it does mean that whatever model
0:03:22 > 0:03:24wins out, things will turn colder,
0:03:24 > 0:03:26it will be a windy week and it will
0:03:26 > 0:03:28often be really quite unsettled.
0:03:28 > 0:03:29Bye-bye.