0:00:02 > 0:00:03Hello. Often, when I'm preparing this forecast,
0:00:03 > 0:00:05there's a clear story to tell -
0:00:05 > 0:00:08the weather's one thing now and it's going to become something else.
0:00:08 > 0:00:10Not so this time.
0:00:10 > 0:00:12It will turn milder later this week,
0:00:12 > 0:00:15but the return of colder air - how cold it will be and for how long
0:00:15 > 0:00:17is still open to significant question.
0:00:17 > 0:00:19I'll try to answer some of those questions
0:00:19 > 0:00:21in a couple of minutes' time.
0:00:21 > 0:00:23First of all, though, a view of some gorgeous weather from Monday
0:00:23 > 0:00:25on the Isle of Man.
0:00:25 > 0:00:28It wasn't like that everywhere. It certainly wasn't in western France.
0:00:28 > 0:00:30This area of low pressure gave a glancing blow
0:00:30 > 0:00:33to south-west England and the Channel Islands with some rain
0:00:33 > 0:00:35that brought to an exposed part of north-west France
0:00:35 > 0:00:38a wind gust near 120mph.
0:00:38 > 0:00:40We dodged that.
0:00:40 > 0:00:42That area of low pressure quickly moving south-east
0:00:42 > 0:00:45and so, by Tuesday, it's across Italy.
0:00:45 > 0:00:48There are storm warnings enforced in Sardinia
0:00:48 > 0:00:52and very gusty winds blowing down through the south of France.
0:00:52 > 0:00:54In contrast, we have a ridge of high pressure.
0:00:54 > 0:00:56So we have light winds for Tuesday.
0:00:56 > 0:00:59In fact, plenty of fine, dry weather to come.
0:00:59 > 0:01:01A few showers in north-west Scotland,
0:01:01 > 0:01:02some outbreaks of rain in Shetland
0:01:02 > 0:01:05and there is a frontal system coming back from the Atlantic,
0:01:05 > 0:01:07so for Northern Ireland, Wales and the south-west,
0:01:07 > 0:01:09outbreaks of rain moving in in the afternoon,
0:01:09 > 0:01:11with the wind freshening, too.
0:01:11 > 0:01:14That all pushes east on Tuesday night.
0:01:14 > 0:01:16Most of that's gone by Wednesday.
0:01:16 > 0:01:18Close to an area of low pressure we have gales, though,
0:01:18 > 0:01:20in northern Scotland with showers.
0:01:20 > 0:01:22We still have a trailing weather front,
0:01:22 > 0:01:25with clouds and outbreaks of rain to the south yet to push away.
0:01:25 > 0:01:27Elsewhere, we have some sunny spells
0:01:27 > 0:01:29and temperatures are creeping up a few degrees.
0:01:29 > 0:01:31Now, this area of cloud and rain
0:01:31 > 0:01:34isn't going to stop that process of it turning milder.
0:01:34 > 0:01:36In fact, it will help that process on Thursday and Friday,
0:01:36 > 0:01:38as it pushes its way northwards,
0:01:38 > 0:01:42because it is a warm front - the leading edge of milder air.
0:01:42 > 0:01:45So, gradually, that spreads north on Thursday into Friday,
0:01:45 > 0:01:48introducing that milder air from the south.
0:01:48 > 0:01:51So particularly by Friday, widely into double figures,
0:01:51 > 0:01:52some spots into the mid-teens.
0:01:52 > 0:01:54But don't get your sunglasses out.
0:01:54 > 0:01:56There will be plenty of cloud around,
0:01:56 > 0:01:59a bit of drizzling rain at times, especially in the west.
0:01:59 > 0:02:00But it will feel mild.
0:02:00 > 0:02:02And that takes us on to the weekend.
0:02:02 > 0:02:05Now, the idea for the weekend is it will turn more widely unsettled,
0:02:05 > 0:02:07again, either with weather fronts moving through
0:02:07 > 0:02:11or distinct areas of low pressure that could turn things quite windy.
0:02:11 > 0:02:13It probably won't look like this
0:02:13 > 0:02:14or like this.
0:02:14 > 0:02:17But just expect at the weekend for some occasional wet weather
0:02:17 > 0:02:19and for it to be quite windy
0:02:19 > 0:02:22and for temperatures to come down a few degrees.
0:02:22 > 0:02:24Now, the idea going into the start of next week
0:02:24 > 0:02:27is that we get an area of high pressure for a time
0:02:27 > 0:02:29to just settle things down,
0:02:29 > 0:02:32but bring the possibility of some widespread overnight frost.
0:02:32 > 0:02:35Now, how long this more settled, colder weather will last,
0:02:35 > 0:02:38well, the preferred solution is that,
0:02:38 > 0:02:41after the start of next week we then, for the rest of next week,
0:02:41 > 0:02:43get into a more mobile weather pattern again,
0:02:43 > 0:02:44with the jet stream, though,
0:02:44 > 0:02:46a little bit further north than this week.
0:02:46 > 0:02:48So instead of low pressure going right across the UK,
0:02:48 > 0:02:50they're closer to the north-west.
0:02:50 > 0:02:52The closer you are to the north-west of the UK,
0:02:52 > 0:02:55the more likely it is you see wet, windy weather at times.
0:02:55 > 0:02:57Relative high pressure to the south,
0:02:57 > 0:02:59so here those weather fronts, when they move through,
0:02:59 > 0:03:01have less oomph and you're more settled,
0:03:01 > 0:03:03you may get some frosty nights.
0:03:03 > 0:03:06So there is a north-west wet and windy at times,
0:03:06 > 0:03:08south-east more settled split going on next week.
0:03:08 > 0:03:10Now, we have talked about the possibility
0:03:10 > 0:03:13of something colder for longer arriving at some stage.
0:03:13 > 0:03:17That is still not nailed on next week with any detail, any timing
0:03:17 > 0:03:19to really point at that and go,
0:03:19 > 0:03:21"Yes, it's happening and this is why."
0:03:21 > 0:03:24So park that thought for now. Don't forget where you've put your keys.
0:03:24 > 0:03:27We will get back to it and we will look at it again
0:03:27 > 0:03:29in the next Weather For The Week Ahead.