0:00:02 > 0:00:03Hello. This is the forecast
0:00:03 > 0:00:04that doesn't just look at this week's weather,
0:00:04 > 0:00:06but goes into next week, too.
0:00:06 > 0:00:08And next week, we're becoming more certain
0:00:08 > 0:00:11that high pressure will be a player once again in our weather,
0:00:11 > 0:00:13settling things down for a time.
0:00:13 > 0:00:16But we are less certain about how long things are settled
0:00:16 > 0:00:19and the exact influence of that high pressure on our weather,
0:00:19 > 0:00:21especially in terms of temperature.
0:00:21 > 0:00:24And we'll analyse some of the reasons for that uncertainty
0:00:24 > 0:00:27by looking at some computer model forecasts in a moment.
0:00:27 > 0:00:30This week, though, it's all about low pressure.
0:00:30 > 0:00:33And low pressure for Wednesday is anchored to the north of Scotland.
0:00:33 > 0:00:35If you're close to that, you've got strong to gale-force winds,
0:00:35 > 0:00:38especially in northern Scotland, with plenty of showers.
0:00:38 > 0:00:41There's a trailing weather front across southern parts of the UK,
0:00:41 > 0:00:43with cloud and outbreaks of rain.
0:00:43 > 0:00:44But for much of northern England,
0:00:44 > 0:00:46Northern Ireland and southern Scotland,
0:00:46 > 0:00:48it's dry, it's fairly sunny
0:00:48 > 0:00:50and around low pressure for the next few days,
0:00:50 > 0:00:52there is a flow of fairly mild air coming our way,
0:00:52 > 0:00:54so widely temperatures in double figures.
0:00:54 > 0:00:57Showers easing in northern Scotland on Thursday.
0:00:57 > 0:00:59Not so much rain in the far south of England,
0:00:59 > 0:01:00though some into the south-west.
0:01:00 > 0:01:03Many places, though, dry and bright and mild.
0:01:03 > 0:01:06On Friday, we take some cloud and rain northwards,
0:01:06 > 0:01:07plenty of cloud, even, behind that.
0:01:07 > 0:01:10But it's still mild, just not as much sunshine.
0:01:10 > 0:01:13And here's the big picture going into the weekend.
0:01:13 > 0:01:14There's low pressure for you.
0:01:14 > 0:01:18Still weather fronts coming our way on, initially, a flow of mild air.
0:01:18 > 0:01:20Breezy to windy on Saturday.
0:01:20 > 0:01:22There'll be bands of wet weather moving through.
0:01:22 > 0:01:24But there'll be drier, brighter slots in between.
0:01:24 > 0:01:27And it's still initially quite mild.
0:01:27 > 0:01:31Now, it could well be that Saturday night it clearer and colder.
0:01:31 > 0:01:33Sunday temperatures have come down a few degrees
0:01:33 > 0:01:36and, again, another spell of wet weather moving through,
0:01:36 > 0:01:37or there'll be showers around.
0:01:37 > 0:01:40So the weekend is unsettled low pressure in control.
0:01:40 > 0:01:42But back to those thoughts now about high pressure.
0:01:42 > 0:01:44The picture going into the start of next week,
0:01:44 > 0:01:48the Azores high building in the Atlantic to the west of us
0:01:48 > 0:01:50and beginning to topple over the UK.
0:01:50 > 0:01:53That's the settling down process into the start of next week.
0:01:53 > 0:01:56So we could see a touch of frost overnight.
0:01:56 > 0:01:58By day, variable cloud and sunny spells.
0:01:58 > 0:02:00We're becoming more certain about that.
0:02:00 > 0:02:03Less certain, though, about how long that high pressure
0:02:03 > 0:02:05is going to stick around.
0:02:05 > 0:02:06Now, to illustrate that,
0:02:06 > 0:02:08I want to show you some different computer model forecasts
0:02:08 > 0:02:10for the same period into the middle of next week,
0:02:10 > 0:02:12particularly Wednesday.
0:02:12 > 0:02:14Computer models churn out these forecasts,
0:02:14 > 0:02:16based on analysis of the atmosphere now, using equations,
0:02:16 > 0:02:18and project that into the future.
0:02:18 > 0:02:21And that's how we come up with these forecasts in the longer range.
0:02:21 > 0:02:22So here is one.
0:02:22 > 0:02:25Middle of the week next week, it actually looks very similar,
0:02:25 > 0:02:27with high pressure close by
0:02:27 > 0:02:29and quite a similar position to the start of the week.
0:02:29 > 0:02:31If this comes off, temperatures will be close to average
0:02:31 > 0:02:33and many places will be dry still.
0:02:33 > 0:02:34Here's another one.
0:02:34 > 0:02:37Well, high pressure is actually closer to the UK.
0:02:37 > 0:02:40If this were to come off, it would be quite spring-like and mild.
0:02:40 > 0:02:41But if you're to the far north-west of UK,
0:02:41 > 0:02:44this low pressure nearby, it's windier here
0:02:44 > 0:02:46and rain-bearing weather fronts may have an impact.
0:02:46 > 0:02:48Here's another one. Same period - midweek.
0:02:48 > 0:02:50It is completely different.
0:02:50 > 0:02:52The high pressure is in Scandinavia.
0:02:52 > 0:02:55Around that, there could well be a flow of colder air
0:02:55 > 0:02:58coming in towards at least the south and east of the UK.
0:02:58 > 0:03:00To the north-west, you're still close to low pressure.
0:03:00 > 0:03:03So three computer model outputs for the same period.
0:03:03 > 0:03:05If they were all the same, we'd say,
0:03:05 > 0:03:07"Yeah, we think that's definitely going to happen."
0:03:07 > 0:03:08But they're not.
0:03:08 > 0:03:11So there is uncertainty for the second half of next week.
0:03:11 > 0:03:14So what can we say about next week's weather?
0:03:14 > 0:03:16Well, high pressure - all of those had them nearby.
0:03:16 > 0:03:19So drier for many of us, compared with this week.
0:03:19 > 0:03:22But temperatures still open to question.
0:03:22 > 0:03:25And that's a look at the weather for next week. Lots of questions.
0:03:25 > 0:03:29We do eventually answer them, we just have to become more certain.