05/07/2017

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0:00:03 > 0:00:05Hello. Thanks very much indeed for joining me.

0:00:05 > 0:00:07It's that sort of time where we try and give you some detail

0:00:07 > 0:00:09about the next five days or so.

0:00:09 > 0:00:11That'll take us right on into the weekend.

0:00:11 > 0:00:14And then, from there on, we try to give you some sense of the trends.

0:00:14 > 0:00:16Before we launch ourselves into the future,

0:00:16 > 0:00:18a quick resume of Wednesday.

0:00:18 > 0:00:20A day of marked contrasts.

0:00:20 > 0:00:23And overnight, those temperatures really not changing

0:00:23 > 0:00:25across the northern half of the British Isles

0:00:25 > 0:00:28and quite a sticky night to come across the south.

0:00:28 > 0:00:30Some areas never lower than 17, 18, 19.

0:00:30 > 0:00:33And when the temperatures stick at those sort of values,

0:00:33 > 0:00:36put a little bit of moisture to some levels in the atmosphere,

0:00:36 > 0:00:38and we end up with this...

0:00:38 > 0:00:40Thunderstorms right from the word go, perhaps,

0:00:40 > 0:00:43across the south-eastern quarter of the British Isles.

0:00:43 > 0:00:46All the while, further north, a frontal system just bringing in rain

0:00:46 > 0:00:49initially to the western side of Scotland, but becoming more patchy.

0:00:49 > 0:00:52Through the course of the afternoon, if things come together,

0:00:52 > 0:00:54those thunderstorms could give us torrential downpours

0:00:54 > 0:00:56anywhere from the eastern side of Wales

0:00:56 > 0:00:57to the north-east of England

0:00:57 > 0:00:59on what is going to be another very hot day,

0:00:59 > 0:01:03with some of that heat getting up towards the north of England,

0:01:03 > 0:01:05always that bit cooler for Scotland and Northern Ireland.

0:01:05 > 0:01:07If those thunderstorms come to pass,

0:01:07 > 0:01:10they could give some very tricky driving conditions indeed,

0:01:10 > 0:01:12torrential downpours, a lot of surface water,

0:01:12 > 0:01:15before they gradually creep away off into the North Sea

0:01:15 > 0:01:17to leave behind Friday.

0:01:17 > 0:01:19A definite in-between sort of day.

0:01:19 > 0:01:22If you're not that close to that weather front across the north,

0:01:22 > 0:01:24then I think you are in for a dry day.

0:01:24 > 0:01:27Don't worry about the frontal system out in the Atlantic too much,

0:01:27 > 0:01:29I think that is going to be more of a player

0:01:29 > 0:01:31late in the day in the western side of Ireland.

0:01:31 > 0:01:34So make the most of the sunshine,

0:01:34 > 0:01:36strong at this time of year, of course,

0:01:36 > 0:01:38even with the cloud filling in, 28 to 29 in the south.

0:01:38 > 0:01:41Perhaps the north of England a fraction cooler

0:01:41 > 0:01:43than was the case on Thursday.

0:01:43 > 0:01:45The north of Scotland well on into the teens.

0:01:45 > 0:01:48Friday into Saturday, rather like Tuesday.

0:01:48 > 0:01:51You'll certainly remember Tuesday if you were in this same zone,

0:01:51 > 0:01:53because it was a particularly wet day.

0:01:53 > 0:01:56And I think Saturday, yes, it starts very wet,

0:01:56 > 0:01:58then the rain begins to ease

0:01:58 > 0:02:01and the last of what we'll call this week's heat

0:02:01 > 0:02:03is still there to be had across East Anglia and the south-east.

0:02:03 > 0:02:05Now, Saturday into Sunday.

0:02:05 > 0:02:07Sunday looks a bit of a write-off first thing,

0:02:07 > 0:02:10simply because we've got low pressure with frontal systems

0:02:10 > 0:02:13down to the south-east, another set of fronts in the north.

0:02:13 > 0:02:16While I'm hopeful that much of the thunderstorm activity

0:02:16 > 0:02:18associated with the front in the south-east

0:02:18 > 0:02:20will stay in the near continent,

0:02:20 > 0:02:22maybe the odd shower getting a little bit further east,

0:02:22 > 0:02:25and those fronts tending to weaken in the north all the while.

0:02:25 > 0:02:28Come Monday, no signs of heat at all,

0:02:28 > 0:02:32because the isobars are bent around into the north and north-west,

0:02:32 > 0:02:35so a fresher feel right across the British Isles

0:02:35 > 0:02:38and disappointing fare if you happen to be on holiday.

0:02:38 > 0:02:40That's not what you want to see.

0:02:40 > 0:02:42It'll be a mixture of the odd sunny spell,

0:02:42 > 0:02:44but quite a bit of shower activity.

0:02:44 > 0:02:47And then the trend develops into next week.

0:02:47 > 0:02:49High pressure tries to build in,

0:02:49 > 0:02:52giving us the sense of something July like.

0:02:52 > 0:02:54But in the middle part of the week it may well be

0:02:54 > 0:02:57that an area of low-pressure swings frontal systems in,

0:02:57 > 0:03:00a lot of cloud and the odd bit and piece of rain,

0:03:00 > 0:03:02especially in the northern half of the British Isles.

0:03:02 > 0:03:05But there is nothing settled about this battle,

0:03:05 > 0:03:08because it could well be that later in the week

0:03:08 > 0:03:10the high pressure resumes its dominance,

0:03:10 > 0:03:12certainly in the southern half of the British Isles.

0:03:12 > 0:03:17And we could well see a return to more glorious conditions.

0:03:17 > 0:03:21So you get the sense that next week could well be a moveable feast

0:03:21 > 0:03:24of weather, changeable certainly, with the wettest of the weather

0:03:24 > 0:03:26across the northern and western parts of the British Isles,

0:03:26 > 0:03:29perhaps the warmest always to be found in the south-east.

0:03:29 > 0:03:31More tomorrow. Bye-bye.