0:00:02 > 0:00:04Hello there. We've been talking recently about how tropical storms
0:00:04 > 0:00:07and hurricanes can throw computer models into a bit of a spin
0:00:07 > 0:00:10and make forecasting weather here in the UK that bit more difficult.
0:00:10 > 0:00:13Now, this area of the cloud has been named Tropical Storm Harvey,
0:00:13 > 0:00:15it's heading into the Caribbean,
0:00:15 > 0:00:18but this area of cloud here could develop into another storm
0:00:18 > 0:00:19and that is further north
0:00:19 > 0:00:22and could be entrained into the flow that heads across the Atlantic
0:00:22 > 0:00:24towards the UK and we're seeing that at the moment.
0:00:24 > 0:00:27Some of this cloud contains remnants of Hurricane Gert
0:00:27 > 0:00:28combined with an area of low pressure
0:00:28 > 0:00:30and it's making the forecast
0:00:30 > 0:00:32that bit more uncertain,
0:00:32 > 0:00:33even as early as Sunday.
0:00:33 > 0:00:34Saturday looks fairly
0:00:34 > 0:00:35straightforward, thankfully -
0:00:35 > 0:00:36sunshine and showers.
0:00:36 > 0:00:37The showers mainly across
0:00:37 > 0:00:39the northern half of the UK,
0:00:39 > 0:00:41not as many showers or as heavy showers
0:00:41 > 0:00:42as we had on Friday
0:00:42 > 0:00:44and it won't be as windy either,
0:00:44 > 0:00:46but still not that warm for the time of year,
0:00:46 > 0:00:4816 in Glasgow where we're likely to catch some showers,
0:00:48 > 0:00:5221 in London where it's likely to stay dry.
0:00:52 > 0:00:53Then as we head through the evening,
0:00:53 > 0:00:56those showers will tend to fade away
0:00:56 > 0:00:57because we've got briefly,
0:00:57 > 0:00:59all too briefly,
0:00:59 > 0:01:00a ridge of high pressure
0:01:00 > 0:01:01building in across the UK,
0:01:01 > 0:01:02so clearing the skies
0:01:02 > 0:01:04and temperatures 10, 12 degrees,
0:01:04 > 0:01:06similar to what we've seen recently.
0:01:06 > 0:01:07First signs of rain, though,
0:01:07 > 0:01:09arriving into the far south-west
0:01:09 > 0:01:10towards the end of the night
0:01:10 > 0:01:11and this rain contains
0:01:11 > 0:01:13some of that tropical air
0:01:13 > 0:01:14from that ex-hurricane.
0:01:14 > 0:01:15Not much rain for the south-west
0:01:15 > 0:01:16and Wales - at the moment
0:01:16 > 0:01:18it looks like the wetter weather
0:01:18 > 0:01:20is likely to be across Northern Ireland later
0:01:20 > 0:01:22and further north and east across the UK
0:01:22 > 0:01:23and it may well be dry
0:01:23 > 0:01:25through daylight hours,
0:01:25 > 0:01:26the sunshine turning more hazy,
0:01:26 > 0:01:28but a decent day on the whole
0:01:28 > 0:01:30and temperatures 18 to 20 degrees.
0:01:30 > 0:01:31Now there may not be an awful lot of rain
0:01:31 > 0:01:33from this ex-hurricane system,
0:01:33 > 0:01:36but it's going to drag in some very warm air briefly
0:01:36 > 0:01:37and some humid air too,
0:01:37 > 0:01:39so you might as well find Monday,
0:01:39 > 0:01:40Tuesday temperatures not far off
0:01:40 > 0:01:4227 degrees, now that's mainly
0:01:42 > 0:01:44the south-east of UK.
0:01:44 > 0:01:45The warmer air coming in
0:01:45 > 0:01:47behind this warm front here
0:01:47 > 0:01:49and that will push some rain northwards
0:01:49 > 0:01:50and eastwards overnight
0:01:50 > 0:01:53and into Monday that rain quite slow-moving
0:01:53 > 0:01:55across East Anglia and across
0:01:55 > 0:01:56northern England and North Wales.
0:01:56 > 0:01:57Again, the heavier rain
0:01:57 > 0:01:59more likely for Northern Ireland,
0:01:59 > 0:02:01perhaps into the south-west of Scotland.
0:02:01 > 0:02:02So if we put the temperatures on,
0:02:02 > 0:02:03you can see the difference
0:02:03 > 0:02:04that we've got across
0:02:04 > 0:02:05more northern parts of the UK
0:02:05 > 0:02:07where temperatures are going to be up
0:02:07 > 0:02:09to around 17 or 18 degrees,
0:02:09 > 0:02:10whereas to the south
0:02:10 > 0:02:12where we've got a conservative 24 degrees
0:02:12 > 0:02:15there in the south-east, but it could be even
0:02:15 > 0:02:17higher than that. It will be quite humid too.
0:02:17 > 0:02:19And we still got some remnants of that humidity
0:02:19 > 0:02:21and that warmth across the south
0:02:21 > 0:02:22and south-east on Tuesday.
0:02:22 > 0:02:25Further north, a messy mixture of showers
0:02:25 > 0:02:26and some slightly cooler air,
0:02:26 > 0:02:29so temperatures in that humid air
0:02:29 > 0:02:31getting up to around 25 or so in London.
0:02:31 > 0:02:33Now that brief warmth
0:02:33 > 0:02:35is just going to be brief.
0:02:35 > 0:02:37It's probably gone by Wednesday
0:02:37 > 0:02:38and we're going to be cooling down
0:02:38 > 0:02:40from the north as we see
0:02:40 > 0:02:41a band of showers which could be
0:02:41 > 0:02:42quite sharp heavy heading down
0:02:42 > 0:02:44towards East Anglia and the south-east.
0:02:44 > 0:02:47And we start later next week with low pressure
0:02:47 > 0:02:48and it's slower to move away.
0:02:48 > 0:02:51It does eventually move away out into the near continent
0:02:51 > 0:02:54allowing a cool northerly airflow for a time.
0:02:54 > 0:02:56Before, by the weekend, perhaps,
0:02:56 > 0:02:57high pressure builds in across the UK.
0:02:57 > 0:03:00Again, it's a bit slower and, again, there are uncertainties
0:03:00 > 0:03:03across the computer models as to how far north the high will build.
0:03:03 > 0:03:05Some of them only really build
0:03:05 > 0:03:07the high briefly across more
0:03:07 > 0:03:08southern parts of the UK,
0:03:08 > 0:03:10allowing that Atlantic air
0:03:10 > 0:03:11to come back in across the north
0:03:11 > 0:03:12and bring with it the chance
0:03:12 > 0:03:15of some rain, but everything's just that little bit slower now.
0:03:15 > 0:03:17So we've still got some showers in the outlook at first
0:03:17 > 0:03:19before the high pressure builds in,
0:03:19 > 0:03:22but it may only hang around quite briefly
0:03:22 > 0:03:24and more especially across the southern half
0:03:24 > 0:03:26of the UK. But because of all those hurricanes or ex-hurricanes,
0:03:26 > 0:03:28there's a lot to play for.