0:00:02 > 0:00:05Hello. Except for Scotland, there's a bank holiday weekend looming.
0:00:05 > 0:00:08Is it straightforward? Of course it's not, it's the weather.
0:00:08 > 0:00:10More on that in a moment.
0:00:10 > 0:00:12Monday was a beautiful day
0:00:12 > 0:00:15in the south-west. It was pleasantly warm,
0:00:15 > 0:00:16highs of 24 degrees,
0:00:16 > 0:00:19because sandwiched in between
0:00:19 > 0:00:20these two weather fronts
0:00:20 > 0:00:22is known as a broad warm sector,
0:00:22 > 0:00:24a lot of humid air across us at the moment,
0:00:24 > 0:00:27but things are set to change.
0:00:27 > 0:00:29But for the bulk of today,
0:00:29 > 0:00:32there'll be a little bit of showery rain easing out of Scotland,
0:00:32 > 0:00:34and more persistent, heavier rain
0:00:34 > 0:00:36as that cold front starts to move
0:00:36 > 0:00:38in through Northern Ireland
0:00:38 > 0:00:40and the Isle of Man, but elsewhere,
0:00:40 > 0:00:42we should see some decent spells of sunshine,
0:00:42 > 0:00:44widely, temperatures in the mid-20s,
0:00:44 > 0:00:47maybe even higher if we get more in the way of sun.
0:00:47 > 0:00:50That front will start to make its presence felt,
0:00:50 > 0:00:52it'll bring rain, some of it heavy,
0:00:52 > 0:00:55out of Northern Ireland into western Scotland through the night.
0:00:55 > 0:00:58Further south, it stays relatively quiet,
0:00:58 > 0:01:00quite cloudy and still relatively mild,
0:01:00 > 0:01:04fresher air starting to show its hand across Northern Ireland.
0:01:04 > 0:01:08So as we move into Wednesday, we've still got that front to clear,
0:01:08 > 0:01:10quite breezy with it as well.
0:01:10 > 0:01:13It'll bring patchy rain down through the Peaks and Pennines,
0:01:13 > 0:01:16the south-east clinging onto some sunshine and some warmth,
0:01:16 > 0:01:20but fresher air behind, despite some decent sunny spells.
0:01:20 > 0:01:25We're looking at highs of 16 to 20 degrees, maybe 23 or 24
0:01:25 > 0:01:27in the south-east corner.
0:01:27 > 0:01:28As we move into Thursday,
0:01:28 > 0:01:32the story is this area of low pressure, which anchors itself
0:01:32 > 0:01:35off to the north-west. It'll be quite breezy with it,
0:01:35 > 0:01:38and that's going to enhance the showers or longer spells of rain
0:01:38 > 0:01:42through Northern Ireland and, at times, north-west Scotland
0:01:42 > 0:01:45and England. Elsewhere, we will see some decent dry weather,
0:01:45 > 0:01:47and still with the south-westerly flow,
0:01:47 > 0:01:50it's not going to be too bad, in terms of the feel of things,
0:01:50 > 0:01:52but we've lost the humidity.
0:01:52 > 0:01:5616 to 18 degrees in the north, highs of perhaps 22 in the south-east.
0:01:56 > 0:01:58Similar story into Friday, really.
0:01:58 > 0:02:01That area of low pressure is slowly drifting eastwards,
0:02:01 > 0:02:05could see a few more sharper showers developing,
0:02:05 > 0:02:07but largely fine and dry in the south.
0:02:07 > 0:02:09The low sits to the North Sea,
0:02:09 > 0:02:12just this little weather front enhancing the risk of showers
0:02:12 > 0:02:14for the first day of the bank holiday weekend
0:02:14 > 0:02:17for Northern Ireland, England and Wales,
0:02:17 > 0:02:20looks as though, for many of us, a good deal of dry weather.
0:02:20 > 0:02:23There is a level of uncertainty just where those showers will sit,
0:02:23 > 0:02:26but if you dodge the showers, you keep the sun,
0:02:26 > 0:02:28you could see highs of 23.
0:02:28 > 0:02:29This is when it starts to get
0:02:29 > 0:02:32that little more complicated.
0:02:32 > 0:02:33It's because of the jet stream,
0:02:33 > 0:02:35as always. There's a significant
0:02:35 > 0:02:38kink in the jet stream for Saturday
0:02:38 > 0:02:39and that is going to allow
0:02:39 > 0:02:41that area of low pressure to drift
0:02:41 > 0:02:43away but we need to keep a close eye
0:02:43 > 0:02:45on this low and where it'll sit.
0:02:45 > 0:02:47Eventually, we'll see a mini low
0:02:47 > 0:02:49develop down to the south,
0:02:49 > 0:02:51and that'll allow the jet stream
0:02:51 > 0:02:53to re-establish itself with
0:02:53 > 0:02:54the main source of the jet stream
0:02:54 > 0:02:56across the far north of the UK.
0:02:56 > 0:02:58Then the question is just where
0:02:58 > 0:03:00this low and the high will sit.
0:03:00 > 0:03:03It looks likely that, into bank holiday Monday,
0:03:03 > 0:03:05the low pressure will drift
0:03:05 > 0:03:07to the north of the UK, and the high
0:03:07 > 0:03:09establish itself to the south.
0:03:09 > 0:03:11Exactly where those cut-off points -
0:03:11 > 0:03:13still open to question,
0:03:13 > 0:03:16and that will influence the weather story.
0:03:16 > 0:03:19Further ahead, it looks as though we will continue to see
0:03:19 > 0:03:21plenty of showers, often breezy,
0:03:21 > 0:03:24and the driest of the weather is always likely to be in the south.
0:03:24 > 0:03:26Still a lot to play for.
0:03:26 > 0:03:29Yes, it's going to change. I'll have more details.