0:00:02 > 0:00:04Hello there. As we step into the first weekend in September
0:00:04 > 0:00:07and the first weekend in meteorological autumn,
0:00:07 > 0:00:10it's going to be a weekend of two halves.
0:00:10 > 0:00:12We've got a fine start to the weekend with high pressure
0:00:12 > 0:00:15sitting out towards the south and east,
0:00:15 > 0:00:17but things are set to change later in the weekend with
0:00:17 > 0:00:20the arrival of this frontal system from the Atlantic.
0:00:20 > 0:00:23So for many of us, Saturday will shape up to be a fine day -
0:00:23 > 0:00:26lots of dry, sunny weather with light winds around too.
0:00:26 > 0:00:29Just one or two isolated showers scattered here and there
0:00:29 > 0:00:31across parts of eastern England,
0:00:31 > 0:00:34perhaps southern Wales, but I think most places avoiding the showers.
0:00:34 > 0:00:37And up to around 21 degrees in the south-east
0:00:37 > 0:00:39will feel quite pleasant, the high teens further north.
0:00:39 > 0:00:43But then things start to change Saturday night as this area of rain
0:00:43 > 0:00:45and strengthening winds moves in from the west.
0:00:45 > 0:00:49So some heavy rain at times across Northern Ireland, Wales,
0:00:49 > 0:00:50south-west of England too.
0:00:50 > 0:00:53It'll be reasonably mild, though, to start your Sunday,
0:00:53 > 0:00:55with all the cloud and wind around.
0:00:55 > 0:00:58Now, through the day on Sunday, the front moves in from the west.
0:00:58 > 0:01:00We've still got that area of high pressure sitting
0:01:00 > 0:01:01out across the near continent there.
0:01:01 > 0:01:04I think that will keep eastern parts of England
0:01:04 > 0:01:06and perhaps eastern Scotland dry for quite a good part of the day
0:01:06 > 0:01:08but elsewhere the cloud and the patchy rain
0:01:08 > 0:01:11and strengthening winds moves in from the west.
0:01:11 > 0:01:14So rain right through the central spine of the country, I think,
0:01:14 > 0:01:18by the afternoon, and temperatures between around about 15-19 degrees.
0:01:18 > 0:01:19So, that frontal system, then,
0:01:19 > 0:01:23tends to weaken as we move through Sunday night and on into Monday too,
0:01:23 > 0:01:26but we've still got the remnants of a front, I think.
0:01:26 > 0:01:28So, Monday's sort of quite a nondescript kind of day.
0:01:28 > 0:01:31We've got a lot of cloud, some patchy drizzle here and there.
0:01:31 > 0:01:33It's towards the far north-west,
0:01:33 > 0:01:36though, that we see some more persistent rain working in again.
0:01:36 > 0:01:38Now, this is a cold front, it's brining some wet
0:01:38 > 0:01:40and windy weather, but across the rest of the UK, actually,
0:01:40 > 0:01:42we've got quite mild conditions with the cloud.
0:01:42 > 0:01:46There'll be some brighter spells around too - 22 degrees or so,
0:01:46 > 0:01:49so certainly mild, but then we'll start to see the cold front
0:01:49 > 0:01:51working in once again from the north-west.
0:01:51 > 0:01:53So, heading on into Tuesday now
0:01:53 > 0:01:56and it's likely that we'll see that front bringing some wet
0:01:56 > 0:01:59and windy conditions across parts of Northern Ireland and Scotland,
0:01:59 > 0:02:01slowly edging its way south-eastwards,
0:02:01 > 0:02:03the far south-east likely to stay dry
0:02:03 > 0:02:05and reasonably warm for a good part of the day
0:02:05 > 0:02:07but there's some uncertainty through the middle part of the week
0:02:07 > 0:02:10about how quickly that cold front gets out of the way.
0:02:10 > 0:02:13Now, what we've got at the moment in the north Atlantic is
0:02:13 > 0:02:16two branches of the jet stream, one a bit further north
0:02:16 > 0:02:17and one a little bit further south.
0:02:17 > 0:02:21Now, how these two jet streams interact is really going to
0:02:21 > 0:02:23affect how quickly that weather front clears away.
0:02:23 > 0:02:26The first scenario is that they could well combine
0:02:26 > 0:02:29and strengthen too, so with that fairly strong jet stream,
0:02:29 > 0:02:31that could clear away this cold front
0:02:31 > 0:02:34through the middle of the week and then that would open the doors
0:02:34 > 0:02:36for an area of higher pressure to build.
0:02:36 > 0:02:39So that would bring a slightly quieter and drier
0:02:39 > 0:02:43and brighter spell of weather through the middle of the week.
0:02:43 > 0:02:45But they may interact differently,
0:02:45 > 0:02:48in that the northern section of the jet stream clears away
0:02:48 > 0:02:51to the north and we're left with this slightly weaker
0:02:51 > 0:02:52southerly branch of the jet stream
0:02:52 > 0:02:56which will be slower in clearing away the initial cold front,
0:02:56 > 0:02:58and then we are likely to see another area of low pressure
0:02:58 > 0:03:00pushing in from the north-west.
0:03:00 > 0:03:02So a couple of scenarios through the middle of the week,
0:03:02 > 0:03:05but what we can agree on is by the end of the week,
0:03:05 > 0:03:08we're likely to see more unsettled weather across the north-west
0:03:08 > 0:03:09of the UK, some brighter
0:03:09 > 0:03:13and some drier weather likely towards the south-east.
0:03:13 > 0:03:16So, it is a rather unsettled outlook.
0:03:16 > 0:03:18There will be spells of rain in the forecast
0:03:18 > 0:03:20over the next ten days, some brighter interludes.
0:03:20 > 0:03:23Windiest towards the north-west and you're more likely to stay
0:03:23 > 0:03:26a little bit drier and warmer too in the south-east.
0:03:26 > 0:03:29We'll keep you up to date throughout the weekend. Bye-bye.