0:00:02 > 0:00:04Hello. The Atlantic hurricane season has really made us sit up
0:00:04 > 0:00:06and take notice in the past couple of weeks,
0:00:06 > 0:00:09and now there are three hurricanes out there at once.
0:00:09 > 0:00:13In the Gulf of Mexico, Katia heading towards Mexico.
0:00:13 > 0:00:15We know about Irma, storming through the Caribbean
0:00:15 > 0:00:16and, behind that, Jose.
0:00:16 > 0:00:19And, again, for Barbuda and Antigua,
0:00:19 > 0:00:22there are hurricane watches in force for this coming weekend.
0:00:22 > 0:00:24Now, a long way from our shores,
0:00:24 > 0:00:26but these systems are having an influence
0:00:26 > 0:00:27on our longer-range forecast
0:00:27 > 0:00:30by injecting a greater degree of uncertainty.
0:00:30 > 0:00:33Why? Because the computers that come up with the forecasts
0:00:33 > 0:00:35don't handle these systems very well -
0:00:35 > 0:00:37particularly once they are no longer hurricanes,
0:00:37 > 0:00:40the energy from them and how that may possibly feed in
0:00:40 > 0:00:42to the wider Atlantic weather patterns.
0:00:42 > 0:00:44So there is an idea about what's going to happen
0:00:44 > 0:00:46in our longer-range forecast,
0:00:46 > 0:00:48but there are bigger question marks than usual
0:00:48 > 0:00:50because of these weather systems, as we'll see.
0:00:50 > 0:00:53No great question marks, though, about Friday's weather.
0:00:53 > 0:00:54Clearly, low pressure in control.
0:00:54 > 0:00:57You can see the centre of it just close to northern Scotland.
0:00:57 > 0:00:59More isobars around that,
0:00:59 > 0:01:02so Friday a windier day for the UK compared with Thursday,
0:01:02 > 0:01:04and some wet weather around.
0:01:04 > 0:01:07Southern England will see rain at times, though not all the time.
0:01:07 > 0:01:10Another spell of rain targeting parts of Wales, the Midlands,
0:01:10 > 0:01:12into East Anglia as the afternoon goes on.
0:01:12 > 0:01:14For Northern England, for Scotland, for Northern Ireland,
0:01:14 > 0:01:17it's sunny spells and showers - some heavy, possibly thundery with hail.
0:01:17 > 0:01:20In some sunshine, may not feel too bad.
0:01:20 > 0:01:22In a shower, with the wind, decidedly cool.
0:01:22 > 0:01:24And as this low-pressure system pulls away
0:01:24 > 0:01:27into the start of the weekend, the flow of air from the north
0:01:27 > 0:01:30will indicate that cool feel to things will continue.
0:01:30 > 0:01:31But some sunny spells around,
0:01:31 > 0:01:33particularly across the eastern side of the UK.
0:01:33 > 0:01:35Lighter winds here compared with the west.
0:01:35 > 0:01:37So perhaps here, if you avoid a shower,
0:01:37 > 0:01:41if you hold on to some sunny spells, even though it's 15, 16 degrees,
0:01:41 > 0:01:42you may think it's a decent day.
0:01:42 > 0:01:45Showers in the West, though, will still be quite heavy.
0:01:45 > 0:01:47The gap between other systems on Saturday night
0:01:47 > 0:01:50doesn't last very long, as another area of low pressure comes in
0:01:50 > 0:01:52for part two of the weekend on Sunday,
0:01:52 > 0:01:55bringing rain quite quickly into Scotland, Northern Ireland,
0:01:55 > 0:01:57spreading a band of rain south-eastwards
0:01:57 > 0:01:58across England and Wales.
0:01:58 > 0:02:00Further showers following on behind
0:02:00 > 0:02:02on what will be another blustery day.
0:02:02 > 0:02:04And, in fact, Sunday night and into Monday,
0:02:04 > 0:02:06it looks like the winds will pick up even more,
0:02:06 > 0:02:10especially down towards the south-west of the UK, with gales,
0:02:10 > 0:02:12a lower risk of severe gales, but with maybe some impact,
0:02:12 > 0:02:14so we'll keep monitoring that for you.
0:02:14 > 0:02:17But be aware - Sunday night into Monday looks quite windy.
0:02:17 > 0:02:20Blustery elsewhere with another day on Monday
0:02:20 > 0:02:22of sunshine and showers, some heavy.
0:02:22 > 0:02:24A ridge of high pressure is trying to build in
0:02:24 > 0:02:26as we go from Monday into Tuesday -
0:02:26 > 0:02:30still on the cool side, still be some showers, especially initially,
0:02:30 > 0:02:33lasting longest down the eastern side of the UK on Tuesday,
0:02:33 > 0:02:35whereas in the west it turns drier
0:02:35 > 0:02:38before we see another area of low pressure coming in.
0:02:38 > 0:02:41Some uncertainty about the timing of this system,
0:02:41 > 0:02:42exactly where it will be,
0:02:42 > 0:02:45but here's an idea of how maybe Wednesday will play out,
0:02:45 > 0:02:48with low pressure spreading rain eastwards, and quite windy again.
0:02:48 > 0:02:51Then it looks like, towards the end of the week
0:02:51 > 0:02:52and into the following weekend,
0:02:52 > 0:02:55high pressure will begin to build more across the Atlantic.
0:02:55 > 0:02:58Now, if that happens, it disrupts the weather pattern
0:02:58 > 0:03:00we're having now of low after low after low,
0:03:00 > 0:03:04and we get longer gaps between those areas of low pressure,
0:03:04 > 0:03:07which means longer spells of fine, settled weather.
0:03:07 > 0:03:10So the indication by next weekend, into the following week -
0:03:10 > 0:03:11there will be days like this,
0:03:11 > 0:03:14overnight there could be some fog around, maybe a touch of frost,
0:03:14 > 0:03:18particularly across northern parts of the UK, with chilly nights.
0:03:18 > 0:03:21But remember those weather systems,
0:03:21 > 0:03:24those three hurricanes injecting uncertainty
0:03:24 > 0:03:26into the longer-range forecast -
0:03:26 > 0:03:28it may yet play out quite differently.
0:03:28 > 0:03:29We'll keep you updated.