0:00:02 > 0:00:04Hello again. If you've been with me this week,
0:00:04 > 0:00:06you'll know we've had a fair amount of certainty
0:00:06 > 0:00:08and the forecast has worked out pretty well.
0:00:08 > 0:00:11It's the latter part of next week that has caused us
0:00:11 > 0:00:14a little bit of concern about exactly what's going to happen.
0:00:14 > 0:00:16We've got two scenarios for you tonight.
0:00:16 > 0:00:18We'll look at those in a second.
0:00:18 > 0:00:21In the shorter term, as I say, there is a deal of certainty,
0:00:21 > 0:00:23because at the moment we've had quite a bit of mild
0:00:23 > 0:00:26air across many parts, particularly in the south, but by the weekend
0:00:26 > 0:00:29it turns much, much colder from the north,
0:00:29 > 0:00:32and eventually that cold air gets into the south.
0:00:32 > 0:00:34Let's see how we get there. Friday starts off rather cloudy,
0:00:34 > 0:00:37bits of rain in the south. Once that's away pretty smartly,
0:00:37 > 0:00:39it's a day of sunny spells and showers for the most part,
0:00:39 > 0:00:42the bulk of those showers across northern and western parts,
0:00:42 > 0:00:45some running out of Liverpool Bay, getting into the north Midlands.
0:00:45 > 0:00:49Top temperature on the day not bad, 12, 13, 14 degrees.
0:00:49 > 0:00:53More cloud and rain getting into the far west to finish off the day.
0:00:53 > 0:00:55Into the weekend, sunshine and showers just about does it
0:00:55 > 0:00:59eventually, and it turns much, much colder. Let's see how we get there.
0:00:59 > 0:01:01I was mentioning that rain across Northern Ireland.
0:01:01 > 0:01:03That eventually becomes quite a player for the far
0:01:03 > 0:01:06south of Scotland, the greater part of England and Wales.
0:01:06 > 0:01:09This is relatively moist, mild air from the Tropics, in fact,
0:01:09 > 0:01:12so that's helping to keep the temperatures up in the south.
0:01:12 > 0:01:15Further north, you're in something a good deal fresher,
0:01:15 > 0:01:19the first signs of that colder air which is lurking with intent away
0:01:19 > 0:01:24towards the far north of Scotland and, indeed, all points north.
0:01:24 > 0:01:28So, let's get ourselves through Armistice Day, Saturday.
0:01:28 > 0:01:30Quite a bit of cloud still lurking across the southern counties
0:01:30 > 0:01:33in the first part of the day, and it eventually begins to break,
0:01:33 > 0:01:36save perhaps in the south-western quarter.
0:01:36 > 0:01:39Notice how those temperatures really diversify there,
0:01:39 > 0:01:41milder in the south and west, much cooler
0:01:41 > 0:01:45and fresher across northern and eastern parts at that stage.
0:01:45 > 0:01:49And then on into Remembrance Sunday is where we really open the doors.
0:01:49 > 0:01:52The mild air is knocked away into France
0:01:52 > 0:01:55and we end up with a mixture of sunny spells for many down the spine
0:01:55 > 0:01:59of the British Isles, the showers largely confined to the coast.
0:01:59 > 0:02:02And look at this, never better than about ten degrees or so.
0:02:02 > 0:02:06And it will be a chilly start to Monday as I take you
0:02:06 > 0:02:09out of Remembrance Sunday on into Monday.
0:02:09 > 0:02:11High pressure trying to dominate. It will do in the south,
0:02:11 > 0:02:16but these frontal systems knock it flat across the northern half of
0:02:16 > 0:02:17Britain, so some cloud and wind
0:02:17 > 0:02:20and rain for Scotland, Northern Ireland, maybe the far north
0:02:20 > 0:02:23of England, maybe the far north-west of Wales later on in the day.
0:02:23 > 0:02:27And once we've put that high pressure just that little bit
0:02:27 > 0:02:31further to the south, it really does open the door to relatively mild
0:02:31 > 0:02:33airs to come in from the Atlantic.
0:02:33 > 0:02:37But the price that we pay for that increase in temperature is
0:02:37 > 0:02:40the loss of sunshine, and there's the chance of rain across many
0:02:40 > 0:02:44parts of the British Isles as we get on through Tuesday.
0:02:44 > 0:02:46Tuesday into Wednesday, we've got
0:02:46 > 0:02:49this daisy chain of weather fronts back out into the Atlantic.
0:02:49 > 0:02:51The high pressure is trying to hold on.
0:02:51 > 0:02:55And it's what happens from here that is the matter of conjecture.
0:02:55 > 0:03:00Two scenarios - either that high stays away towards the south,
0:03:00 > 0:03:02allowing the low pressures, some of them quite deep,
0:03:02 > 0:03:05to get into the northern half of the British Isles to produce
0:03:05 > 0:03:09really quite wet and windy conditions, or the high pressure
0:03:09 > 0:03:12becomes much more of a player for much more of the British Isles
0:03:12 > 0:03:15and that forces the low pressure much, much closer to Iceland,
0:03:15 > 0:03:19giving us a more settled end to the forthcoming week.
0:03:19 > 0:03:21So there's a great deal of uncertainty.
0:03:21 > 0:03:24There will, however, I suspect, be more rain in the north of the
0:03:24 > 0:03:25British Isles and a more settled
0:03:25 > 0:03:28look to the conditions in the south. Bye-bye.